2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

This has to be the most extreme -WPO +EPO dipole that we have seen in December. Lead to the unusually strong ridge out West with the -PNA for such a strong -WPO. Record Pacific Jet and historic flooding in the Pacific Northwest. 
 

Strong December -WPO 500 mb composite more -EPO snd weaker Western U.S. ridge 

[Terpeast]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doubt at your own peril.

Wdym?

All I was saying that I’m waiting until the weeklies are more consistent for at least a few days instead of flip flopping. Only then I’ll think there’s some credibility to their forecasts. 

[donsutherland1]

As is often the case during La Niña, winter arrived abruptly. It came on fast, cold, and at times snowy, especially across the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast.

But the PNA turned increasingly and persistently negative. As its negative state grew stronger, it began to consume winter.

Voices quickly rose to declare winter finished before it had truly begun. Some had even pronounced it stillborn from the outset. As Hanukkah arrived and Christmas drew near, fatalism spread like the unwelcome Influenza virus. The earlier December snows faded into memory. What remained were only fragments of seemed to be a winter that nearly was.

Others, however, saw something different. They treated the shift not as an ending, but as an invitation. They saw the pause as an opportunity to reflect on moments that failed to fully arrive yet still left their mark. They recognized how seasons, like ideas or paths, often shape us not through completion, but through incompleteness. They held onto their dreams of snow, their faith in winter intact even as it was tested and surrounded by a growing chorus of voices whose belief had long since shattered.

Then, on the heels of the winter solstice, the 12/21/2025 0z EPS arrived.

12/20 0z run:

12/21 0z run:

Although it was one cycle of an Ensemble at a distant timeframe, it bore a message. It did not guarantee that an epic winter period lay ahead. However, with its smaller Southeast ridge, it whispered that perhaps the worst fears expressed by some might never come to pass. 

The journey continues.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As is often the case during La Niña, winter arrived abruptly. It came on fast, cold, and at times snowy, especially across the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast.

But the PNA turned increasingly and persistently negative. As its negative state grew stronger, it began to consume winter.

Voices quickly rose to declare winter finished before it had truly begun. Some had even pronounced it stillborn from the outset. As Hanukkah arrived and Christmas drew near, fatalism spread like the unwelcome Influenza virus. The earlier December snows faded into memory. What remained were only fragments of seemed to be a winter that nearly was.

Others, however, saw something different. They treated the shift not as an ending, but as an invitation. They saw the pause as an opportunity to reflect on moments that failed to fully arrive yet still left their mark. They recognized how seasons, like ideas or paths, often shape us not through completion, but through incompleteness. They held onto their dreams of snow, their faith in winter intact even as it was tested and surrounded by a growing chorus of voices whose belief had long since shattered.

Then, on the heels of the winter solstice, the 12/21/2025 0z EPS arrived.

12/20 0z run:

12/21 0z run:

Although it was one cycle of an Ensemble at a distant timeframe, it bore a message. It did not guarantee that an epic winter period lay ahead. However, with its smaller Southeast ridge, it whispered that perhaps the worst fears expressed by some might never come to pass. 

The journey continues.

You’re quite the story teller! No cap. 

I noticed the EPS fading the SE ridge this morning as well. GEFS did the same thing.