2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.

I feel that the urban heat island affect has gotten out of hand and unfortunately, central park's temperatures are no longer relevant as a representation of the northeast tri state corridor. Seeing 37 while all other areas were 34 is insane.

Would white plains or newark be a better benchmark moving forward?

I mean, literally one mile away from central park was far colder and received more snow. North south east and west. If we keep using Central Park it will just keep getting worse and will misrepresent the entire area moving forward.

Perhaps we can still use Central Park, but adjust the temperature down. However, this may be a worse idea

It is also one of the coolest stations during summer heatwaves due to the overgrown tree canopy, so this cuts both ways. 

[donsutherland1]

The EPS ensembles' 10-14-day outlook highlights how I think the cold will likely hang on longest in the Northeast/parts of eastern Canada consistent with the forecast teleconnections.

[michsnowfreak]

Snow is beginning to melt here. Been a 3 week stretch of deep winter and while Im not looking forward to the change, Im thinking Jan-Mar will be a wild ride, as most "textbook" Ninas are. This means multiple chances for big snowstorms, arctic blasts, and torches. Im not great at indicies, but Im great at pattern recognition. With all the talk of this being a "textbook" Nina, this is what I see the next 3 months. Wouldnt surprise me if the past 3 weeks is the most sustained any pattern gets all winter. 

[BlizzardWx]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't really get this "negative ENSO turned -PNA to +PNA" since 1980 thing. 

1. Why does it only start in the 1980s? Data was not unreliable before then, so it's not like you're starting from a blank point. I think a lack of examples increases the odds of random. If it didn't work before 1980, that's telling, not an ignored difference.

2. That's not what Negative ENSO does. Negative ENSO does not support a +PNA in January. The Hadley cell is extended in the N. Pacific in La Nina more often than not, and that supports -PNA. 

Since we are having such a strong -PNA December, here is a fun roll forward. This is what 500mb January looks like after -PNA Dec.. this is a total composite of 73 years, both - and + signs considered, going back to 1948:

That's an Aleutian ridge in the mean for January. But the ridge is a little further NE, which makes January a cold month for a lot of the US. 

The reason why it will sometimes switch is the MJO runs if 45-day cycles and Kelvin and Rossby waves sometimes run in 45-60 day cycles. We don't have a strong phase of those things now -- it will be interesting to see if we do go more +PNA after the 1st week of January. I think you are discovering a high mathematical random skew. 

This would be a pretty major reversal from the current pattern. Definitely would get a more active storm track so theoretically higher snow chances for many. 

[GaWx]

These images show that the GEFS was too slow in showing the transition from the very strong -PNA of Dec 2021 to the strong +PNA of Jan of 2022:

 12/15/21 GEFS PNA forecast was ok

 

But the 12/26/21 GEFS PNA forecast, which goes through 1/9/22, had all members 0 to -2 for then. The actual 1/9/22 ended up being +0.2. So, it was too slow in predicting the turn to a +PNA:

 

12/31/21 GEFS PNA forecast out to 1/14/22: finally turned to +PNA but not positive enough as 1/14 was actually +0.7 vs this forecast for ~+0.4:

 

1/5/22 GEFS PNA forecast out to 1/19/22: not positive enough as 1/19 was actually +1.0 vs this forecast for only ~+0.1:

 

This shows the actuals for the entire Dec-Jan 2021-2:

[GaWx]

 Check out the widespread much lower H5 for nearly the entire E US on the 12Z GEFS vs the 6Z GEFS as of 0Z 12/30 helped mainly by the apparently even stronger -NAO:

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS strong -NAO that starts in just 5 days (12/22) and is the strongest -NAO for days 5-16 averaged out on any GEFS run back to at least Oct 31st:

 

Compare this to the 0Z 12/12/25 run: 12/22-28 were 0 to +0.5 instead of -1 to -2

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z GEFS strong -NAO that starts in just 5 days and is the strongest -NAO for days 5-16 averaged out on any GEFS run back to at least Oct 31st:

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city 

[GaWx]

 The model consensus is currently forecasting the strongest -NAO on Christmas as well as surrounding days since way back in 2010! In stark contrast, these 6 had a strong +NAO: 2011, 13, 15, 16, 23, and 24.

[snowman19]

59 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

-NAO are definitely more helpful than harmful. But we will need cooperation from the pacific. With all the energy roaring ashore the Pacific Northwest this week, it’ll be hard to get the pacific to slow down enough. And mind you, that’s only if the -NAO doesn’t link up with the SER. If it does, then it doesn’t matter how much pacific Help you get, it’ll be cutter city 

The upcoming -NAO (Christmas week into New Year’s week) is projected to be east-based, in addition, the PAC looks like straight garbage and you have a huge omega ridge dead center of the CONUS, an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) with a +EPO and a very strong -PNA. So if you are looking to stay cool and avoid a “torch” in the east, that will work out fine then, the -NAO will keep the east cool, no “torch”. If you are looking for east coast snowstorms/nor’easters, it looks absolutely awful 

[GaWx]

 Natural gas closed up nearly 4%, easily its best day since Dec 5th. This is largely based on today’s forecast speculation that the forecasted dominant warmth may not be as widespread, intense, and/or long lasting in the E US as thought yesterday thanks largely to the newly forecasted strong -NAO.

[EasternLI]

Trending towards the powerhouse Scandinavian block scenario in that 8-10 range on the EPS. As a consequence of that, it's also trending towards a powerhouse Greenland block scenario arriving in the longer range 11-15 day clusters.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It is also one of the coolest stations during summer heatwaves due to the overgrown tree canopy, so this cuts both ways. 

I understand theres only so much you can do with observation sites...but i feel the ultimate goal should always be having the best setup and doing it the right way. We see so much of "this station runs cold so its only fair this one runs warm"...or..."they undermeasured that snowfall so they should overmeasure this one". 

[MJO812]

AO and NAO on the eps

[GaWx]

Ladies and gentlemen, can I have your attention, please? The results are in and we did it. The MJO went back into phase 8 on Dec 15th, the coldest day of the season to date! Let the celebrations begin! The weenies are gonna party like it’s Feb 1899!

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Really looks like the -NAO wants to develop. But ideally we would want it to develop a bit more to the west and force some blocking across northern Canada and Greenland. But I believe east -NAO are good flow slowing storms down on the Atlantic side. That being said, you need help from the pacific as well but as long as Alaska stays cold and stormy, I’m not sure we’ll get much help. Looks like northeast will be the only place colder than average for the rest of the month. Been a torch across most of CONUS this entire week and  will likely prevail into the new year. Places down south that we’re running 10 degrees below normal will finish around average from this torch. Warm Christmas for many, doesn’t look like that pattern will Let up through early January. 

[SnoSki14]

I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. 

However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. 

So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge. 

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. 

However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. 

So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge. 

 

-AO - WPO - PNA - NAO is a pattern where storms moving across the midsection get sheared out and could develop into NE storms.

[EastonSN+]

NOT hinting that this will happen, however, the setup COULD yield a storm like this. The storm tries to cut through New England however the blocking forces the storm just south.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NOT hinting that this will happen, however, the setup COULD yield a storm like this. The storm tries to cut through New England however the blocking forces the storm just south.

 

I would take a deep and quick plunge right into the Merrimack....I just can't anymore.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take a deep and quick plunge right into the Merrimack....I just can't anymore.

Its all cyclical. You will get another snowfall bonanza across multiple seasons again. My largest snowfall drought lasted 30 years before 2000 so I am not too hopefull for anytime soon IMBY lol.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

-AO - WPO - PNA - NAO is a pattern where storms moving across the midsection get sheared out and could develop into NE storms.

For reference, the December and January snowfalls for New York City (1980-Present) with the teleconnections you listed:

[BlizzardWx]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

These images show that the GEFS was too slow in showing the transition from the very strong -PNA of Dec 2021 to the strong +PNA of Jan of 2022:

 12/15/21 GEFS PNA forecast was ok

 

But the 12/26/21 GEFS PNA forecast, which goes through 1/9/22, had all members 0 to -2 for then. The actual 1/9/22 ended up being +0.2. So, it was too slow in predicting the turn to a +PNA:

 

12/31/21 GEFS PNA forecast out to 1/14/22: finally turned to +PNA but not positive enough as 1/14 was actually +0.7 vs this forecast for ~+0.4:

 

1/5/22 GEFS PNA forecast out to 1/19/22: not positive enough as 1/19 was actually +1.0 vs this forecast for only ~+0.1:

 

This shows the actuals for the entire Dec-Jan 2021-2:

I guess we will have to wait and see if this actually develops. The way I tend to look at this is that models even today cannot see pattern changes coming until they are within the medium range. It's fun to look at the weeklies, but there really is very little skill past 10-15 days. So maybe we do get a +PNA flip, maybe we don't, but I am confident that models don't know either

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, the December and January snowfalls for New York City (1980-Present) with the teleconnections you listed:

Not good for much more than a light snowfall 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not good for much more than a light snowfall 

In general, a PNA- pattern results in lighter snowfalls in the New York City area and northern Mid-Atlantic. The Boxing Day blizzard is a notable exception and the only KU snowstorm during December when the PNA was negative.

[GaWx]

 The -NAO continues to be very strong for late this month per the 0Z GEFS and EPS:

 

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, a PNA- pattern results in lighter snowfalls in the New York City area and northern Mid-Atlantic. The Boxing Day blizzard is a notable exception and the only KU snowstorm during December when the PNA was negative.

I think part of what helped December, 2010 was El Nino “hangover” from the very healthy Nino the winter before, so you still had some semblance of a southern stream/STJ around at that point

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The -NAO continues to be very strong for late this month per the 0Z GEFS and EPS:

 

NAO keeps getting stronger on EPS

[donsutherland1]

While the AO and NAO are looking good on the latest GEFS, the PNA is not.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think part of what helped December, 2010 was El Nino “hangover” from the very healthy Nino the winter before, so you still had some semblance of a southern stream/STJ around at that point

Perhaps. However, the December 2010 blizzard was a Miller B system. 

Baltimore: Trace
Boston: 18.2"
Islip: 14.2"
New York City: 20.0"
Newark: 24.2"
Philadelphia: 12.4"
Washington, DC: 0.4"
Wilmington, DE: 3.5"