2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening 

if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year

I'm inclined to agree with that right now. For one, because of what we've already seen this season. But also, another nice group of ensemble members on last night's run showing that too. Possibly better than yesterday's group even. Also if you go loop some of the op runs out to the end. There's hints of some favorable wave breaks in progress in the Pacific... and some signs of that possibility within the eps members too. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening 

That standing wave is why I have been pointing out the warmer risks to the EPS extended forecasts after December 16th. Notice how the long range EPS missed the forcing there back in November. This is has been a regular EPS forecast error beyond 10 days in recent years due to the record marine heatwaves near the Maritime Continent. 

New run shows current MJO 4-6 standing wave

 

Old run missed the current standing wave 

[Terpeast]

As I said in the MA forum yesterday, it won’t take much to shift that wpac warm pool slightly east to favor MJO 7-8 instead of 4-6. MJO 7 has sometimes shown to be a precursor to our biggest storms. 

And while the warm up is getting more aggressive on the models, my overall thoughts have not changed about 1) Neg WPO, 2) cold air source in Canada, 2) MJO waves into 7 and 8, and 4) increased chance of blocking due to stratosphere activity. These will increase the likelihood of a cold January moreso than a warm one.

[GaWx]

 Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

[SnowGoose69]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going.  I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA.  May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.

[GaWx]

 It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

Good points. For the last few months, these modeled warm ups got muted or vanished as they got closer in time. I do think this upcoming one has legs, it’s just happening about a week later than I originally thought (mid-dec).

[leo2000]

I know many are down on this big warm up the up side however is this may actually offer a chance for a big coastal storm as the cold pattern relaxes. 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies, after the current cold domination ends, are similar in the big picture to yesterday with a stout -PNA and mildness dominating much of the E US, especially the further south you go, into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative. The NE US is again near normal on most maps. Mid-Atlantic is mainly mild til the last week.

[leo2000]

Interesting situation happening here the big warm up is being muted by the latest Euro Ensembles as the -WPO is fighting back. On the other hand the latest GEFS holds onto the big warm up and so does the GEPS. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. 

[EasternLI]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

As I said in the MA forum yesterday, it won’t take much to shift that wpac warm pool slightly east to favor MJO 7-8 instead of 4-6. MJO 7 has sometimes shown to be a precursor to our biggest storms. 

And while the warm up is getting more aggressive on the models, my overall thoughts have not changed about 1) Neg WPO, 2) cold air source in Canada, 2) MJO waves into 7 and 8, and 4) increased chance of blocking due to stratosphere activity. These will increase the likelihood of a cold January moreso than a warm one.

Yeah, this warm pool facet of how things are evolving this year is pretty fascinating. Eric Webb had even made a mention of this idea near the beginning of the month too. I mean... we legitimately could be attempting to pull off something exactly like that... Already, over the last 7 days there's been warming and cooling of sst's in all of the right places (1st image). Plus with an outlook favoring some persistent wwb's right around the dateline (2nd image). In the near future and for the seemingly foreseeable future. With that warm pool currently leaning a little to the east already too. Sure sounds a lot like the proper recipe for continuing to see good things evolve out there in the wpac.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since we cooled down late August/Sept, it's been more of a -AO pattern. I think it's solar, and therefore the connection is on both sides of the globe. The Southern Hemisphere has had a nice -AAO period since September:

Going into next year - that rolls forward to a -NAO, tripole pattern the following March to June (map default is positive so it's opposite correlation v ) 

Could be a cool Spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. 

I had it beginning to shift around the middle of the month, with January starting milder and then shifting cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, leo2000 said:

I know many are down on this big warm up the up side however is this may actually offer a chance for a big coastal storm as the cold pattern relaxes. 

 

 

 

I can't wait for the cold to relax and it warms up, as I think that will offer up more snow...at least for my area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades

I think he is referring to anomalies.....obviously the west PAC will always have more convection and VP as a baseline because it's warmer (Walker Cycle)...this is why there is such a high volume of super typhoons out there.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he is referring to anomalies.....obviously the west PAC will always have more convection and VP as a baseline because it's warmer (Walker Cycle)...this is why there is such a high volume of super typhoons out there.

yeah, i was wondering, because I wouldn't say that there's been a standing wave out there... looks like typical MJO propagation to me

we'll finally have legit WHEM forcing in late Dec, which should have us break colder into early Jan. just getting some IO/MC influence right now that will wash out, hence the warmer pattern later this month

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, i was wondering, because I wouldn't say that there's been a standing wave out there... looks like typical MJO propagation to me

we'll finally have legit WHEM forcing in late Dec, which should have us break colder into early Jan. just getting some IO/MC influence right now that will wash out, hence the warmer pattern later this month

I will tell you right now, there is no way my seasonal sequence will work out entirely...I understand that going in. A seasonal forecast as detailed as mine is never going to be as nuanced as the actual pattern that evolves....it's akin to expecting a weekly product to nail the deformation zone for a storm at day 16; it just isn't practical. I hope to get the general idea...while I said turning warmer in the 2nd half of December, and then colder again mid January, there is no way it will work out entirely like that. I'm sure there the timing will be off, and there will be some colder periods interspersed during the advertised warmth.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will tell you right now, there is no way my seasonal sequence will work out entirely...I understand that going in. A seasonal forecast as detailed as mine is never going to be as nuanced as the actual pattern that evolves....it's akin to expecting a weekly product to nail the deformation zone for a storm at day 16; it just isn't practical. I hope to get the general idea...while I said turning warmer in the 2nd half of December, and then colder again mid January, there is no way it will work out entirely like that. I'm sure there the timing will be off, and there will be some colder periods interspersed during the advertised warmth.

yeah, seasonal forecasting is really awfully tough. i appreciate the effort that you put into it... i help put together seasonal / LR stuff for work and it is not easy whatsoever. luckily even laymen know that the error is high after a couple weeks

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, seasonal forecasting is really awfully tough. i appreciate the effort that you put into it... i help put together seasonal / LR stuff for work and it is not easy whatsoever. luckily even laymen know that the error is high after a couple weeks

Lucky SOB-

[Krs4Lfe]

The models are really not backing down with the warmth after the 20th. Not enough to offset the cold we’ve had so far but yikes that’s a pretty warm Christmas week 

[GaWx]

 There’s been an ~3 day lag time in getting the official MJO phase/amp. As it turns out, the initial phase 8 lasted only 5 days (12/3-7) as it went into phase 6 on 12/8 (per 1st image), which was totally unexpected. I’ll keep following this closely to see if it re-enters phase 8, which I think has a very good chance but we’ll see.

 Regarding this initial phase 8 (12/3-7), here are some E half of US anomalies:

- Boston: -8

- NYC: -8

- Baltimore: -7

- RDU: -8

- Atlanta: -7

- Birmingham: -7

- Tulsa: -7

 These are on the border of B and MB normal:
 
 Below are the average anomalies for NDJ, which I believe are in degrees F. These average anomalies were well exceeded even if these are in degrees C:

 Thus, this was a colder than average phase 8 in the E US based on these 7 cities.

Source for daily temperatures:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 There’s been an ~3 day lag time in getting the official MJO phase/amp. As it turns out, the initial phase 8 lasted only 5 days (12/3-7) as it went into phase 6 on 12/8 (per 1st image), which was totally unexpected. 

I didn’t think this was totally unexpected. What would have been a surprise is a much longer stay in phase 8. I’ve been watching the MJO a lot lately, and the little rmm “loop” told us that some of the forcing would be pulled back from 8 to 6, resetting the 6>7>8 progression. Hollmovers showed this pretty clearly. I think we will see another incursion into 8 by years end into january. This may actually be part of a long term shift of the standing wave from 4-6 to 7-8, which will take a while but we may actually be seeing this play out. 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 There’s been an ~3 day lag time in getting the official MJO phase/amp. As it turns out, the initial phase 8 lasted only 5 days (12/3-7) as it went into phase 6 on 12/8 (per 1st image), which was totally unexpected. I’ll keep following this closely to see if it re-enters phase 8, which I think has a very good chance but we’ll see.

 Regarding this initial phase 8 (12/3-7), here are some E half of US anomalies:

- Boston: -8

- NYC: -8

- Baltimore: -7

- RDU: -8

- Atlanta: -7

- Birmingham: -7

- Tulsa: -7

 These are on the border of B and MB normal:
 
 Below are the average anomalies for NDJ, which I believe are in degrees F. These average anomalies were well exceeded even if these are in degrees C:

 Thus, this was a colder than average phase 8 in the E US based on these 7 cities.

Source for daily temperatures:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

 

NOV 26 colder started in phase 6 headed into phase 7 & then into phase 8 through DEC 6. Here is the pattern

NOV26-DEC 8

It appears the MJO did indeed influence the pattern....pretty strongly.  

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I didn’t think this was totally unexpected. What would have been a surprise is a much longer stay in phase 8. I’ve been watching the MJO a lot lately, and the little rmm “loop” told us that some of the forcing would be pulled back from 8 to 6, resetting the 6>7>8 progression. Hollmovers showed this pretty clearly. I think we will see another incursion into 8 by years end into january. This may actually be part of a long term shift of the standing wave from 4-6 to 7-8, which will take a while but we may actually be seeing this play out. 

I meant unexpected with regard to the main model MJO projections we follow. None of them on any day’s run had it going into 6 though it likely will leave quickly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The probability for a White Christmas is above climatological levels given the active pattern and at least seasonable cold throughout the first half of the month, but it remains dubious for the coastal plane given the milder turn prior to the holidays.  In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not.  A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026.

 

 

Look familiar???

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

Colin ?

[Benjamn3]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There’s been an ~3 day lag time in getting the official MJO phase/amp. As it turns out, the initial phase 8 lasted only 5 days (12/3-7) as it went into phase 6 on 12/8 (per 1st image), which was totally unexpected. I’ll keep following this closely to see if it re-enters phase 8, which I think has a very good chance but we’ll see.

 Regarding this initial phase 8 (12/3-7), here are some E half of US anomalies:

- Boston: -8

- NYC: -8

- Baltimore: -7

- RDU: -8

- Atlanta: -7

- Birmingham: -7

- Tulsa: -7

 These are on the border of B and MB normal:
 
 Below are the average anomalies for NDJ, which I believe are in degrees F. These average anomalies were well exceeded even if these are in degrees C:

 Thus, this was a colder than average phase 8 in the E US based on these 7 cities.

Source for daily temperatures:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate