2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening 

if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year

I'm inclined to agree with that right now. For one, because of what we've already seen this season. But also, another nice group of ensemble members on last night's run showing that too. Possibly better than yesterday's group even. Also if you go loop some of the op runs out to the end. There's hints of some favorable wave breaks in progress in the Pacific... and some signs of that possibility within the eps members too. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening 

That standing wave is why I have been pointing out the warmer risks to the EPS extended forecasts after December 16th. Notice how the long range EPS missed the forcing there back in November. This is has been a regular EPS forecast error beyond 10 days in recent years due to the record marine heatwaves near the Maritime Continent. 

New run shows current MJO 4-6 standing wave

 

Old run missed the current standing wave 

[Terpeast]

As I said in the MA forum yesterday, it won’t take much to shift that wpac warm pool slightly east to favor MJO 7-8 instead of 4-6. MJO 7 has sometimes shown to be a precursor to our biggest storms. 

And while the warm up is getting more aggressive on the models, my overall thoughts have not changed about 1) Neg WPO, 2) cold air source in Canada, 2) MJO waves into 7 and 8, and 4) increased chance of blocking due to stratosphere activity. These will increase the likelihood of a cold January moreso than a warm one.

[GaWx]

 Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

[SnowGoose69]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, it’s overall looking to average mild from the Mid-Atlantic-OH Valley-lower Midwest south for most of the 4 week long period 12/22-1/18. Could it end up verifying well? Of course, especially the earliest portion, when statistically there’s more skill. Will it? Nobody could possibly know, obviously. Notwithstanding the poor performance for the 3 weeks from just before Thanksgiving through mid Dec, the Euro Weeklies have been just good enough at foretelling general trends that they shouldn’t be ignored by any means. But could they largely end up failing, especially for the Jan portion? Obviously they could.

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going.  I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA.  May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.

[GaWx]

 It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It was about a week in advance when the models suddenly got colder for the period starting a few days before Thanksgiving. We’re now about a week before the progged big warmup in the E US. Just saying although I’m not saying that will likely happen again. But it’s good to stay grounded due to the inaccuracy of models more than a week out.

Good points. For the last few months, these modeled warm ups got muted or vanished as they got closer in time. I do think this upcoming one has legs, it’s just happening about a week later than I originally thought (mid-dec).

[leo2000]

I know many are down on this big warm up the up side however is this may actually offer a chance for a big coastal storm as the cold pattern relaxes. 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies, after the current cold domination ends, are similar in the big picture to yesterday with a stout -PNA and mildness dominating much of the E US, especially the further south you go, into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative. The NE US is again near normal on most maps. Mid-Atlantic is mainly mild til the last week.