2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies 46 day 2m temp anomalies:

11/25 run: NYC and Chicago -3F

 

11/29 run: NYC -6F, Chicago -8F (would be coldest in many years for that period)

 

Euro seasonal winter fcast issued Nov 1st: huge warm bust potential increasing, which could end up like last winter or even worse:

[SnoSki14]

GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. 

Bet snowman loves that 

[GaWx]

11/30 MJO 2 week runs 

11/30 EPS: steady as can be (4th day in a row very similar) phase 8 12/3-14+, which would be the longest phase 8 in 50 years for any winter month!

 

To show how consistent it has been, the EPS had this on 11/27 run, phase 8 12/3-11+:

—————

GEFS 11/30 (not as consistent as EPS, which has been doing better with phase 7 than GEFS): also has phase 8 start Dec 3rd:

 

 

JMA 11/30: phase 8 12/3-10+

[bluewave]

A new tropical oscillation called the TWISO has been recently discovered. So maybe the reason we are getting a strong MJO 6 gradient pattern in early December is somehow related to it being out of phase with the MJO. Plus the split forcing between the Maritime Continent and the Western Hemisphere could also be creating an interference pattern. 
 

Models showing a MJO 6 interference gradient pattern in early December 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2511549122

The tropical climate variability is characterized by various oscillations across a range of timescales. Oscillations that imprint the tropical mean state are generally attributed to slow processes, such as the seasonal cycle or interannual variability. Here, we identify a pronounced tropics-wide intraseasonal oscillation (TWISO) in satellite observations and reanalyses. This oscillation, with a period of 30 to 60 d, is evident across multiple variables and involves interactions between convection, radiation, surface fluxes, and large-scale circulation. It is primarily manifested as convective perturbations in the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool accompanied by oscillations in the large-scale tropical overturning circulation. Here, we examine the relationship between TWISO, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the instability of radiative-convective equilibrium. Certain phases of TWISO coincide with specific phases of the MJO, suggesting a potential connection between the two. However, although the MJO can amplify the oscillation amplitude of TWISO, it is not essential for TWISO to occur. Finally, due to its broad manifestation across the tropics, TWISO potentially exerts widespread influence on tropical weather and climate at regional scales.

 

[donsutherland1]

The 11/30 0z and 6z GEFS has returned to a warmer outlook for much of North America after December 10th. It offers a credible alternative scenario.

I'm still going with the EPS/ECMWF weeklies, as the GEFS has shown inconsistency. Moreover, the size of the rebound in temperatures (December 11-20 vs. December 1-10) would be both extreme and rare. 

Nevertheless, a look at the alternative scenario is still in order as a muted variation is plausible. The GEFS's development of a fairly strong PNA- is the key variable differentiating it from the colder baseline idea shown on the EPS. The latest two cycles of the GEFS show the development of a WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- pattern. The GEFS maps are consistent with the largest cluster for the December 5-15 period (39%) of cases.

WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- Maps (Largest December 5-15 cluster):

500 mb Height Anomalies:

Temperature Anomalies:

GEFS (11/30 6z cycle): Days 11-15:

500 mb Height Anomalies (5-day average):

Temperature anomalies (5-day average):

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 11/30 0z and 6z GEFS has returned to a warmer outlook for much of North America after December 10th. It offers a credible alternative scenario.

I'm still going with the EPS/ECMWF weeklies, as the GEFS has shown inconsistency. Moreover, the size of the rebound in temperatures (December 11-20 vs. December 1-10) would be both extreme and rare. 

Nevertheless, a look at the alternative scenario is still in order as a muted variation is plausible. The GEFS's development of a fairly strong PNA- is the key variable differentiating it from the colder baseline idea shown on the EPS. The latest two cycles of the GEFS show the development of a WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- pattern. The GEFS maps are consistent with the largest cluster for the December 5-15 period (39%) of cases.

WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- Maps (Largest December 5-15 cluster):

500 mb Height Anomalies:

Temperature Anomalies:

GEFS (11/30 6z cycle): Days 11-15:

500 mb Height Anomalies (5-day average):

Temperature anomalies (5-day average):

 

Yep the gefs has been awful

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

11/30 MJO 2 week runs 

11/30 EPS: steady as can be (4th day in a row very similar) phase 8 12/3-14+, which would be the longest phase 8 in 50 years for any winter month!

 

To show how consistent it has been, the EPS had this on 11/27 run, phase 8 12/3-11+:

—————

GEFS 11/30 (not as consistent as EPS, which has been doing better with phase 7 than GEFS): also has phase 8 start Dec 3rd:

 

 

JMA 11/30: phase 8 12/3-10+

Looks like we will be in phase 8 all December. Paul Roundy thinks we will be cold through January .

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep the gefs has been awful

GEFS did well a month ago when the MJO was still in 6. But EPS is now catching up in forecast performance since we went into 7. And don’t sleep on the AIFS ensembles for mid-latitude 500mb at 6-15 days out. It’s been wiping the floor lately. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

GEFS did well a month ago when the MJO was still in 6. But EPS is now catching up in forecast performance since we went into 7. And don’t sleep on the AIFS ensembles for mid-latitude 500mb at 6-15 days out. It’s been wiping the floor lately. 

AI is still a work in progress but it has been doing well.

[MJO812]

Updated euro mjo

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like we will be in phase 8 all December. Paul Roundy thinks we will be cold through January .

Just to make sure I have your post correct, it’s your prediction that the MJO is going to stay in phase 8 the entire month of December? So 31 days in phase 8? 

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just to make sure I have your post correct, it’s your prediction that the MJO is going to stay in phase 8 the entire month of December? So 31 days in phase 8? 

he's basing it off of a run from the euro weeklies

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

he's basing it off of a run from the euro weeklies

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

Paul Roundy also thinks it has a good chance of that. 

Its going to do something you haven't seen in many decades and that it will stay in phase 8 for 3 weeks and if its 4 I wouldn't be shocked .

And say goodbye to the warmups that were predicted .

Enjoy

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

its probably a brash prediction

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Paul Roundy also thinks it has a good chance of that. 

Its going to do something you haven't seen in many decades and that it will stay in phase 8 for 3 weeks and if its 4 I wouldn't be shocked .

And say goodbye to the warmups that were predicted .

Enjoy

That’s all I wanted to know. So your forecast is over 4 weeks in phase 8.  Thank you

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

That’s all I wanted to know. So your forecast is over 4 weeks in phase 8.  Thank you

Yes full month of December into January. Dont worry I kept many of your failed calls.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless of what he’s basing it off of, I’m just clarifying that it is his prediction that the MJO does something completely historic and stays in phase 8 for 31 days next month

What’s your Dec MJO prediction?

What’s your Jan PNA prediction? I expect a +PNA due to all -ENSO PNA Decs since 83 transitioning to Jan +PNAs.

[SnowGoose69]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. 

Bet snowman loves that 

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s all I wanted to know. So your forecast is over 4 weeks in phase 8.  Thank you

Geez man, we all know why. You need a new hobby.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas Futures are up near $5, making one heck of a run since August!

I've been watching to see if it goes up, record low 500mb in the N. Hemisphere in August, low 500mb at different times in the Summer and Fall - all that is pretty strong in preceding a cold Winter. Since 2012, negative SLP 60-90N in the warm season correlates to Winter -AO at a high rate. I didn't trade the Futures, but I should have - they are trending toward the colder Winter idea (although $5.00 is about the middle mark - >$5 -NAO, <$5 +NAO)

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Natural Gas Futures are up near $5, making one heck of a run since August!

I've been watching to see if it goes up, record low 500mb in the N. Hemisphere in August, low 500mb at different times in the Summer and Fall - all that is pretty strong in preceding a cold Winter. Since 2012, negative SLP 60-90N in the warm season correlates to Winter -AO at a high rate. I didn't trade the Futures, but I should have - they are trending toward the colder Winter idea (although $5.00 is about the middle mark - >$5 -NAO, <$5 +NAO)

I posted in September that we were getting early cool shots similar to colder winters. Just to many hints early on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I posted in September that we were getting early cool shots similar to colder winters. Just to many hints early on.

Yeah, it's not as easily baked into the price as you would think. They do a lot of year-to-year consistency.  If next year there is a -8 SLP over the Arctic June - August and Natural gas is $2.50, it would be good to go long the position for the Winter.  

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol.  That was more or less the pattern that winter.  The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

Gefs just folded in the long range. Check out the differences.

[Krs4Lfe]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs just folded in the long range. Check out the differences.

Unfortunately, that’s just one run. But what is persistent is the trough over Alaska. Ideally you would want to see a ridge over Alaska heading into the Arctic which will force the coldest air into CONUS. Mind you, colder than normal temps don’t always equal snow. December 2022 was colder than normal too, and was quite stormy across CONUS with significant snow storms. But for the northeast; it was mainly rain. The month can be cold overall, but when it counts (when there is precipitation nearby, it might be too warm down here for snow.) That being said, the long range looks to be stormy enough across CONUS so hopefully that can coincide with the colder temps and make some snow over here. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Unfortunately, that’s just one run. But what is persistent is the trough over Alaska. Ideally you would want to see a ridge over Alaska heading into the Arctic which will force the coldest air into CONUS. Mind you, colder than normal temps don’t always equal snow. December 2022 was colder than normal too, and was quite stormy across CONUS with significant snow storms. But for the northeast; it was mainly rain. The month can be cold overall, but when it counts (when there is precipitation nearby, it might be too warm down here for snow.) That being said, the long range looks to be stormy enough across CONUS so hopefully that can coincide with the colder temps and make some snow over here. 

Its not just 1 run. The eps has been schooling the gefs