stadiumwave Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: If models are going to be this bad its going to be a long winter. Last 4 GFS runs for this weekend The models have been bad for quite some time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago I mean...this one little detail south of Alaska is pretty massive! Whoops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: And it is not just GFS...Canadian does the same...much colder Beautiful ridge out west Pv is also way further south enhanced by the negative EPO. Gfs just gave 10 plus inches to NYC with overrunning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Look at the Canadian 0z, 12, 0z comparison in temps. Under 120 hrs with that kind of change is criminal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Ensemble confirmation: GEFS 0z, 12z, tonight 0z And we're putting stock in 3-4 weeks model output??? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago What SER, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago metfan wins again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: What SER, lol?? We can add in the euro Ai 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Good spot to be in 7-8 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, binbisso said: We can add in the euro Ai Keep pumping that PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago maybe this will be one of those winters that don't make a lot of sense but we'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago We will see if this confirms but models seem to be to strong with the se ridge in the 10+ day range geps. Older run new run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Pretty significant changes on the medium range guidance tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Will we go +pna mid December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 hours ago, stadiumwave said: What SER, lol?? There was talk of underestimating the SER. If trends continue it was grossly overestimated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 11/23/2025 at 3:26 PM, Spartman said: December is looking like a write-off. Today's CFS v2 weeklies are a blowtorch all the way. Now post todays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 11/19/2025 at 1:08 PM, A-L-E-K said: ready 2 b buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Now post todays. Here you go: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here you go: Shocker! Wild run to run swings and flip flopping on the CFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 day change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago First week of December on eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Shocker! Wild run to run swings and flip flopping on the CFS Same goes with every model in the long range. These models aren't stable at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: 15 day change Coldest week so far in this La Niña event in regions 3.4 and 4… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: 15 day change The return of the blob? Btw, thanks for posting the model forecast change loops. If you look to the left at the north pacific, notice the lines tightening meaning the models underestimate the pac jet and it gets stronger as it gets closer in time. That nudges north pac ridging to the north and east into the EPO domain, which means more cold for midwest and possibly the east. The SST change map also seems to reflect this tendency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The 0z GEFS was showing one of the more uncommon December teleconnection combinations near the end of its forecast period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 0z GEFS was showing on of the more uncommon December teleconnection combinations near the end of its forecast period. The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) want to retrograde the Alaskan ridge (-EPO) to an Aleutian ridge (-WPO) by the beginning of the 2nd week of December. So you end up with a -WPO/+EPO/-PNA setup. It’s been a consistent theme for several cycles now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The ensembles always show variations with week 2 forecasts. There really hasn’t been that much of a change. Still looking at a Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge and a trough digging into the Baja to start December. New day 6-10 Old day 11-15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The colder trend for early Dec is happening on all ensembles including GEFS: these are all for a week from today at 7PM: watch the SER disappear: @donsutherland1@bluewave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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