2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

All the ensembles bring down the cold after the first week.  No clue what the panic is right now.

Because that's too far out. Underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

DJF MJO last 15 winters (2010-1 through 2024-5): # of days each phase

*7: 286 days from 58 phase 7s or 4.9 days/phase

*8: 95 days from 34 phase 8s or 2.8 days/phase

1: 76 days from 24 phase 1s or 3.2 days/phase

2: 96 days from 23 phase 2s or 4.2 days/phase

3: 167 days

4: 173 days

5: 212 days

6: 249 days

———————

  Per the above data, the # of phase 8 days for the last 15 winters, combined, has been only 1/3 the # of phase 7 days. This was due to a combo of much fewer phase 8 periods than phase 7 periods (34 vs 58) and much shorter avg. duration for 8 vs 7 (~3 days vs ~5 days). So, there sometimes is a struggle in going from phase 7 to 8. The # of combined 8-1-2 days has been ~# of phase 7 days, alone!

 The coldest E US phases have been 8, 1, and 2 while the warmest have been 4-6 (see bottom). The # of phase 8-1-2 days, combined, has only barely been higher than the # of phase 6 days, alone!

 So, as we look at Dec MJO progs, keep in mind the relative difficulty in getting as many phase 8 days (as well as each of phases 1 and 2, for that matter) as phase 7 days (if any at all). Just because models suggest a 2+ week long phase 7 is very likely doesn’t necessarily mean the durations of each of phases 8, 1, and 2 immediately following will be anywhere near as long, if they even occur.
 

 Here are the 10+ day long phase 7s since 2010-1 along with the subsequent phase 8-1-2:

- 1/14-30/13: 17 days followed by a combined 15 days in 8-1-2

- 2/19-29/2016: 11 days followed by a combined 10 days in 8-1-2

- 2/2-18/2018: 17 days followed by a combined 10 days in 8-1-2

- 2/7-21/2021: 15 days followed by 0 days in 8-1-2 and instead a combined 11 days in 6-5-6-7

- 12/19/2021-1/9/2022: 22 days followed by only 4 days in phase 8 before going back to 7; phases 7-6-5-4-3 then dominated the next 3.5 weeks.

- 1/1-10/2023: 10 days followed by a combined 9 days in 8-1-2

- 2/16-28/2023: 13 days followed by 1 day in phase 6 and then right back to phase 7 for 5 more days…so, 19 days in phase 7 for all practical purposes…followed by a combined 19 days in 8-1-2

- 1/28-2/6/2024: 10 days followed by 2 days in phase 6 and then right back to phase 7 for 10 more days….so, 22 days in phase 7 for all practical purposes…followed by only 1 day in phase 8, which was then followed by a combined 31 days in 7-5-6-7-3-4-5-6

———————

 Analysis of the above:

- Much more frequent 10+ day long phase 7 last 5 winters with 5 of them vs only 3 during the previous 10 winters!

- The combined 8-1-2 duration was never longer than the prior phase 7 length (using the “for all practical purposes” phase 7 length in two cases).

- Of the 8 long duration phase 7s, two (25%) of the following 8-1-2 periods lasted a notable length of 15-19 days and three (38%) lasted a mediocre 9-10 days. However, the other three (38%) were only a minuscule 4 or fewer days long (4, 1, 0) and these were all within the last 5 winters.

- So, whereas there’s a decent chance to get a higher end duration of 15-19+ days in 8-1-2 following the upcoming 7, the chance doesn’t appear to be very high and the chance of getting only a very disappointing short period is probably at least about as high.

- Thus, recent history tells us that the upcoming 2nd half of Dec MJO is practically un-forecastable as of now with dominance by the often cold 8-1-2 about equally as probable as a feared hardly any 8-1-2.
 

@donsutherland1@bluewave
———————

Daily MJO:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

Basically whichever way you slice it the atmosphere is biased against cold and snow in the east now.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

One thing that I don't like is the lack of cold and snowstorms over CONUS thus far. I remember mentioning this in December 2023 and December 2024. Even years that were not good for us (2019,2020,2023) still had way more snowstorms and cold thus far. In many years, the snowstorms began as early as October, but even if it didn't begin in October, it began in November, and there would be a few large ones and several smaller ones as we neared December. Fall 2023, Fall 2024, and Fall 2025 have been virtually devoid of snow across CONUS outside of a few mountain ranges in New England and parts of the Great Lakes (and even then, that's been pretty muted). Part of this is likely due to the warmth in Canada, as that moderates temps across the northern tier, making most of their precipitation rain thus far. Ideally, you like to see a quick start to the season in October or November across the Plains and Upper Midwest, but like Fall 2023 and Fall 2024, that has been almost entirely absent this season. Snow begets snow, and cold begets cold. When that is absent from nearly the entirety of the US, with December right around the corner, that's never a good sign imo. I raised these points last November and December as well. 

100%. It is so bizarre to see like none of the conus with snow cover this late into November. Can't be a good sign. Even if the cold shot early dec bleeds east like the weenies think it'll quickly moderate anyway from the lack of snowcover. Not gonna cancel winter on Nov 23 but i wouldn't be surprised if this is another stinker. 

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

100%. It is so bizarre to see like none of the conus with snow cover this late into November. Can't be a good sign. Even if the cold shot early dec bleeds east like the weenies think it'll quickly moderate anyway from the lack of snowcover. Not gonna cancel winter on Nov 23 but i wouldn't be surprised if this is another stinker. 

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal. 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies aren’t what you want to see if you don’t want them to be warmer than yesterday: the most intense cold on the run is W and SW of Chicago and perhaps near ME. I personally hate them because the colder the better and I hate sweating in winter when I take my walks. Note that the warmest anomalies in the US are in the deep SE:

Dec 1-7: very slightly warmer/strong SER:

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer/stronger SER lingering:

 

Dec 15-21: warmer/SER won’t give up

 

Dec 22-28: SER finally weakened but slightly warmer NE vs yesterday

 

Dec 29-Jan 4: SER staying weak but slightly warmer NE vs yesterday:

[anthonymm]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the past two fall seasons featured the Same problem. Very strange, cant be a good sign. It’s crazy how 2019 winter (which was seen as almost a dud at the time because NYC only had 20”, is actually better than almost all other winters we have seen in the past 7 years). Thinking this is probably the new normal. 

I think so too man. We're not going back. I can see NYC settling on a 15ish inch mean for good now, absent a volcanic eruption like bluewave said.