2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

 

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now.

This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is impressive to see though models are showing the potential destruction of the Nina like atmosphere coming up as we go into December. This really should kick into effect a downwelling kelvin wave from the warm pool sitting around 160E below the surface.

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very much agreed a quick disruption followed by a very strong PV when it flips back

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models  It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs. 

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about? 

I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now.

This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this. 

Models really struggle with the December forecast progression of the pattern in late November. That’s why I would like to see everything play out over the next few weeks before getting too excited this early.

Let’s see what the Euro monthly comes up with on the December 5th release. There is a bit of a late November forecast barrier for getting the mid into late December patterns correct.

Since we can go back to most years at this time in the long range forecasts  and watch numerous changes as the calendar actually gets into the first 5 days or so of December.

Plus we have the backdrop of only 3 Decembers in the last 14 years that lead to major I-95 snowstorms since 2011. So December has faced some challenges for the snowfall after having 7 out of 11 snowy years between 2000 and 2010. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

This isnt 1996/1997

Strong into P8

Dont expect a strong PV

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

Simon is highly credible with deep expertise. He doesn't make outlandish statements for clicks or subscriptions. He has done important research. I am aware of his concerns and take them seriously. 

With regard to the upcoming SSWE, I have outlined what is my current baseline thinking. Overall, I have three general scenarios:

Scenario 1: Great Lakes Focused Cold, East Gets a Window (EPO-/AO-/PNA-) -- My Baseline
Scenario 2: Colder/Blockier; Classic Eastern Winter Period (EPO-/AO-/PNA+) 
Scenario 3: Delayed or Short Impact/Persistent SE Ridge; Cold Underperforms in the East; reduced snow opportunities in the Mid-Atlantic Region (EPO-/AO+/PNA-)

Under my current baseline, cold would first move into the Great Lakes Region and then spread farther east (except for the Southeast; the cold will be fleeting there). The late November cold shot is unrelated to the stratospheric event. Should the forecast AO- break down relatively quickly, the odds of Scenario 3 would increase. Given guidance skill (lack thereof) at long timeframes, I am sticking with the baseline until there is credible evidence it is going off track.

Interestingly, during Winter 1996-1997, January was the coldest month relative to normal for such cities as Detroit and New York. That outcome was suggested by my final winter analog set.

 

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt 1996/1997

Strong into P8

That post had nothing at all to do with the tropospheric MJO. It was the stratosphere only, which Simon Lee believes (in his professional opinion) resembles 96-97. But with regard to the MJO, we won’t know for certain that the MJO actually goes strongly into phase 8 until it happens, it’s simply a computer generated projection right now

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Simon is highly credible with deep expertise. He doesn't make outlandish statements for clicks or subscriptions. He has done important research. I am aware of his concerns and take them seriously. 

With regard to the upcoming SSWE, I have outlined what is my current baseline thinking. Overall, I have three general scenarios:

Scenario 1: Great Lakes Focused Cold, East Gets a Window (EPO-/AO-/PNA-) -- My Baseline
Scenario 2: Colder/Blockier; Classic Eastern Winter Period (EPO-/AO-/PNA+) 
Scenario 3: Delayed or Short Impact/Persistent SE Ridge; Cold Underperforms in the East; reduced snow opportunities in the Mid-Atlantic Region (EPO-/AO+/PNA-)

Under my current baseline, cold would first move into the Great Lakes Region and then spread farther east (except for the Southeast; the cold will be fleeting there). The late November cold shot is unrelated to the stratospheric event. Should the forecast AO- break down relatively quickly, the odds of Scenario 3 would increase. Given guidance skill (lack thereof) at long timeframes, I am sticking with the baseline until there is credible evidence it is going off track.

Interestingly, during Winter 1996-1997, January was the coldest month relative to normal for such cities as Detroit and New York. That outcome was suggested by my final winter analog set.

 

If I remember correctly, there were a number of storms that just missed central park with snowfall. Even though I believe the city ended up around 4 inches for the year, with subtle differences it could have been much more. 

Of course the giant blizzard ending April 1st that year was too warm and east for Manhattan (all the other borrows did ok). However if that same storm occurred 2 weeks earlier, Manhattan could have had a solid 6 to 10 inches. 

Going into this year with low expectations, I would definitely roll the dice with a 96 / 97 repeat.