2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

 

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now.

This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this. 

[so_whats_happening]

This is impressive to see though models are showing the potential destruction of the Nina like atmosphere coming up as we go into December. This really should kick into effect a downwelling kelvin wave from the warm pool sitting around 160E below the surface.

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very much agreed a quick disruption followed by a very strong PV when it flips back

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models  It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs. 

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about? 

I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time. 
 

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it 

 

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now.

This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this. 

Models really struggle with the December forecast progression of the pattern in late November. That’s why I would like to see everything play out over the next few weeks before getting too excited this early.

Let’s see what the Euro monthly comes up with on the December 5th release. There is a bit of a late November forecast barrier for getting the mid into late December patterns correct.

Since we can go back to most years at this time in the long range forecasts  and watch numerous changes as the calendar actually gets into the first 5 days or so of December.

Plus we have the backdrop of only 3 Decembers in the last 14 years that lead to major I-95 snowstorms since 2011. So December has faced some challenges for the snowfall after having 7 out of 11 snowy years between 2000 and 2010.