snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The EPS and long-range ECMWF continue to suggest that an EPO-/WPO-/PNA-/AO- pattern will develop to open December. Such a pattern typically favors a trough's being anchored in the West and extending mainly across Canada. Although some cold could periodically push into the eastern U.S., the coldest anomalies would stay in the west (both in Canada and the U.S.). December 1-10, 1980-2024: Composite 500 mb Anomalies: Composite Temperature Anomalies: December 1-8, 2025 ECMWF Weekly Forecasts: 500 mb Anomalies: Temperature anomalies: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Below are the four major clusters for the EPO-/WPO-/PNA-/AO- (91% of all cases): Currently, the guidance favors the most common cluster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Below are the four major clusters for the EPO-/WPO-/PNA-/AO- (91% of all cases): Currently, the guidance favors the most common cluster. Another case of the NAO/AO disconnect that we’ve been seeing more frequently the last 10 years….the NAO/AO used to almost always go positive or negative together and you rarely saw a disconnect between the two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: How about the other MJO plots ? November was always supposed to be mild towards the end. Its the end of Novenber into December when the pattern flips favorable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully it goes to 8 like the majority hae been saying It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It’s certainly possible that it goes into phase 8 in December. However, the earlier idea that it would propagate into phase 8 by the end of this month appears to be dead in the water right now. The progression has slowed considerably The slowdown has happened a few times in the past as it got closer. Sometimes models are too gungho in the long range just to tame it back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago Social media version of the ECMWF weekly forecast for December 1-8: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Social media version of the ECMWF weekly forecast for December 1-8: you forgot the "PREPARE NOW" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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