2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

I follow Max with severe weather but what's his track record with winter?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[stadiumwave]

12z GEPS 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription? 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

New Weeklies, month of DEC looks cold through Christmas.

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

[stadiumwave]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

DEC 23-28

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/16/#findComment-129642

[stadiumwave]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

Here is the epo on the eps

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

Cansips run this month for December not far off all things considered. 

 

[snowman19]

 The avg SPV strength of a winter is by no means anywhere close to an end all be all factor as many of us know.

 For example, these winters had an SPV on the strong side but still had cool to cold in much of the E US (a bit counter-intuitive):
-1980-1 DJ
-1983-4
-1995-6
-2013-4
-2024-5 DJ
 
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html
 

FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen:

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription? 

As things draw closer, even if the cold becomes less impressive, the following are plausible headlines from that account: “Get Ready: The Sudden Cold Blast That Will Shock Your Forecast!” “Temperatures Are About to Crash!” "The Temperature Plunge You Need to See to Believe.”

As noted previously, social media is a veritable "Wild West" of meteorology information. There is no accountability. Clicks remain the single metric of value. Clickbait accounts are little more than the 21st century version of the 20th century's hawkers and hustlers. And, because these accounts deploy hyperbole to build enormous followings, it's no surprise that public perceptions of meteorology are distorted by the sensationalism.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription? 

Who knows , maybe he will be right. I mean he isnt the only one talking about a cold and active winter. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

While understandably we are all focused on temps, I  like that the weeklies are keeping us AN to normal with precip thru December. At least in the Mid Atlantic, dry is always a concern in Niñas, especially Decembers.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202511130000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511240000

[leo2000]

Yes we don't want to get too cold suppression depression happens then. We also don't want the shreddar pattern either like we had last year. 

 

An interesting video from Met DT about December. 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

MJO projected to crawl through P7 first week of December. Looks like Model's picking up in that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I follow Max with severe weather but what's his track record with winter?

He seems like a tool-bag to me....like the Direct Weather bafoon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen:

 

 

 

 

I still don't buy the reversal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription? 

Far, far too much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had the second week of December as go-time in terms of snow for my area given analogs...still feel that way. It will be a slower than expected progression of the cold to the east given the RNA.

[stadiumwave]

0z GFS, end of month

 

PAC to Atlantic HLT blocking 

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark EPS is showing your -PNA idea starting at the tail end of the month going into December 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark EPS is showing your -PNA idea starting at the tail end of the month going into December 

I think at the end of the day, December is a New England month more than anything else, but hopefully I'm wrong. Mid Atlantic could get a decent event mid-month or so.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think at the end of the day. December is a New England month more than anything else, but hopefully I'm wrong. Mid Atlantic could get a decent event mid\-month or so.

I'd definitely take a decent event.  I'm assuming thats a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal... but we haven't had many decent December snowfall down here recently 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd definitely take a decent event.  I'm assuming thats a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal... but we haven't had many decent December snowfall down here recently 

I just feel like these youtube mets do the public a disservice because the focus is more on click maximization than it is the dissemination of the highest quality of information. This garbage is also like opioids for weather weenies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Everything warrants a "PREPARE NOW" headline....it's truly nauseating.  I've been reading that crap every week from November through March and have been averaging like half of my average seasonal snowfall each year.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everything warrants a "PREPARE NOW" headline....it's truly nauseating.  I've been reading that crap every week from November through March and have been averaging like half of my average seasonal snowfall each year.

The beginning of November through the end of March is totally insufferable on X. The usual suspects are always looking for subscription money, clout, likes, follows, views and retweets from the east coast weenies. Every L on the weather maps gets hyped into the Blizzard of 1996 and every cold outbreak gets hyped into turning the east coast into an arctic tundra like The Day After Tomorrow. Year after year, you can set your watch to it.  It’s sad

[GaWx]

 The latest MJO forecast is a mix with GEFS not looking as good but the Euro still looking good:

11/14 GEFS further right with it hung up in middle of 6 rather than 6/7 border:

But Euro is still all systems go to 7/8:

11/14 Euro ~same as yesterday with progression into 7:

 

11/13 extended Euro (they run a day later) continues to look very nice with it again getting to the often cold in the E US phase 8 mid-Dec (can’t ask for better for then):

 

And yesterday’s extended GEFS also heads to phase 8 mid-Dec:

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just feel like these youtube mets do the public a disservice because the focus is more on click maximization than it is the dissemination of the highest quality of information. This garbage is also like opioids for weather weenies. 

If one goes back to his September 7 video, he announces that El Niño is “rapidly fading.” There was no El Niño this year. All monthly Region 3.4 anomalies were negative (cool). If one doesn’t know the basics, that says a lot. But that’s the state of social media where hype suffocates quality. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The latest MJO forecast is a mix with GEFS not looking as good but the Euro still looking good:

11/14 GEFS further right with it hung up in middle of 6 rather than 6/7 border:

But Euro is still all systems go to 7/8:

11/14 Euro ~same as yesterday with progression into 7:

 

11/13 extended Euro (they run a day later) continues to look very nice with it again getting to the often cold in the E US phase 8 mid-Dec (can’t ask for better for then):

Hopefully the models dont get stuck in 6. That would be awful. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If one goes back to his September 7 video, he announces that El Niño is “rapidly fading.” There was no El Niño this year. All monthly Region 3.4 anomalies were negative (cool). If one doesn’t know the basics, that says a lot. But that’s the state of social media where hype suffocates quality. 

And then you see it posted/shared on Facebook and social media. Sad how hype/headlines sell in our society.