2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

I follow Max with severe weather but what's his track record with winter?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[stadiumwave]

12z GEPS 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription? 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

New Weeklies, month of DEC looks cold through Christmas.

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

[stadiumwave]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

DEC 23-28

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/16/#findComment-129642

[stadiumwave]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

Here is the epo on the eps

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

Cansips run this month for December not far off all things considered. 

 

[snowman19]

 The avg SPV strength of a winter is by no means anywhere close to an end all be all factor as many of us know.

 For example, these winters had an SPV on the strong side but still had cool to cold in much of the E US (a bit counter-intuitive):
-1980-1 DJ
-1983-4
-1995-6
-2013-4
-2024-5 DJ
 
https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html
 

FWIW, here’s what the SPV “expert” thinks of what may or may not happen: