2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s possible I’m mistaken? But I thought that happened last December? Maybe it was the year before?

It wasn’t Dec. of ‘24. Yeah, you must be thinking of another year, perhaps ‘23 as you suggested though ‘23 actually had a pretty strong 1 and 2 Dec 23-31 (maybe models were too strong in 8 though). Here’s ‘23:

 

 For Dec of ‘24, they correctly predicted 4-5-6-7 (they didn’t predict 8-1-2), but they tended to not be strong enough in 4-5:

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

OT: My flashdrive that contained the ENSO data became unreadable today. Fortunately, I have a backup that is reasonably up-to-date. Pre-device failure might have led to a corruption of the data e.g., the wrong ENSO values for some of the cases referenced previously in this discussion. 

In the meantime, it looks like Savannah could see its earliest first freeze since 2010.

That's what happens when you save my posts.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The models were real bad in the long range with the MJO last December. They kept showing an amplified MJO wave going 8-1-2 which obviously didn’t happen

The GEFS last December was hinting at a big push into 7. But the MJO slowed in the warmer 5-6 phases mid to late December with the +EPO warm up.

We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3.

Then the MJO missed phase 8 last February when we had the first 5 sigma Greenland block link up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

 

[EasternLI]

I've been occasionally browsing these myself. Nice of him to provide an explanation here of how it works/what it does/what it's doing. 

 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3.
 

 

Thanks, Chris.

 It still was a 6 day long phase 8 last January (Jan 7-12) that peaked at a decent amplitude of 2.1. I consider that near an average length phase 8 in January rather than brief. Phase 8’s 6 days was as long or longer than any other phase last January as it went around to phase 4.

 Granted, the average amplitude of the 6 days in phase 8 wasn’t nearly as high as that of phases 1-4, which were closer to 2 and thus not as pronounced an amplitude as those as you said, but it still averaged ~1.3, a moderate phase 8. I consider weak to be <1, moderate 1-2, and strong 2+. So, I have it as an avg length near avg amplitude phase 8 during last Jan. I have phases 1-3 of last Jan at higher than average amp and fairly close to an avg length overall. Phase 4’s amp was closer to avg.

*Edited last 2 sentences

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 It still was a 6 day long phase 8 last January (Jan 7-12) that peaked at a decent amplitude of 2.1. I consider that near an average length phase 8 in January rather than brief. Phase 8’s 6 days was as long or longer than any other phase last January as it went around to phase 4.

 Granted, the average amplitude of the 6 days in phase 8 wasn’t nearly as high as that of phases 1-4, which were closer to 2 and thus not as pronounced an amplitude as those as you said, but it still averaged ~1.3, a moderate phase 8. I consider weak to be <1, moderate 1-2, and strong 2+. So, I have it as an avg length near avg amplitude phase 8 during last Jan. I have phases 1-4 of last Jan at higher than average amp and fairly close to an avg length overall.

It was still too brief a phase 8 last January to significantly weaken the Pacific Jet. So the kicker shortwaves coming into Western North America prevented the record Gulf Coast snowstorm from coming up the coast. Our last impressive MJO 8 was back in January 2022 allowing the Pacific Jet to relax and the great snowstorms to affect ACY-ISP-BOS.
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

It has begun. The first snow today. Absolutely beautiful and it NEVER gets old. Just over an inch, wouldve been more without the early November ground temps and 32-33 air temps. But the first snow always tells me...its show time!

I notice the weeklies got their colder look back as well. 

[brooklynwx99]

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Such is consistent with strong -QBO

Last year we had strong +QBO, and Nov-Feb had one of the stronger 10mb PV's on record. 

2 years ago in strong -QBO, we had 4 Stratosphere warming events. 

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today 

Drop the PV over the hudson bay all winter long, ala 2013-2014.

[GaWx]

Any opinions about this, which suggests Greenland blocking throughout this winter?

@bluewave@snowman19

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Any opinions about this, which suggests Greenland blocking throughout this winter?

@bluewave@snowman19

 

Last year Roundy's tool was stellar!!!!

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

Any opinions about this, which suggests Greenland blocking throughout this winter?

@bluewave@snowman19

Ut oh! Permanent, non-stop  massive Greenland blocking from December 1st until March 31st!! 1995-96, 2010-11 redux!  Lol

[snowman19]

In other news, the -IOD definitely peaked last week as expected by BOM (almost -2) and is starting to bump up again….ended up being strongest negative event since the fall of 1996. And it seems we have westward moving ER waves from the La Niña interfering with the MJO’s eastward propagation
 

 

 

 

 

[FPizz]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Anyone know where NOAA moved their ENSO ONI product?

All I know is that the ASO value is -0.5 from this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Anyone know where NOAA moved their ENSO ONI product?

All I know is that the ASO value is -0.5 from this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ONI: -0.45

NDJ 2024  26.09  -0.53
  DJF 2025  26.05  -0.59
  JFM 2025  26.49  -0.38
  FMA 2025  27.11  -0.18
  MAM 2025  27.60  -0.09
  AMJ 2025  27.72  -0.11
  MJJ 2025  27.54  -0.11
  JJA 2025  27.11  -0.19
  JAS 2025  26.63  -0.32
  ASO 2025  26.31  -0.45

————
RONI: -0.78

NDJ  2024 -1.07
DJF  2025 -1.12
JFM  2025 -0.90
FMA  2025 -0.67
MAM  2025 -0.52
AMJ  2025 -0.49
MJJ  2025 -0.43
JJA  2025 -0.47
JAS  2025 -0.63
ASO  2025 -0.78

————

So, RONI less ONI -0.33

 

RONI less ONI:

NDJ -0.54

DJF -0.53

JFM -0.52

FMA -0.49

MAM -0.43

AMJ -0.38

MJJ -0.32

JJA -0.28

JAS -0.31

ASO -0.33

 So, after slowly falling NDJ through JJA, RONI less ONI has bounced back some.
 

ONI link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

I hope it's right, but honestly didn't believe it when Snowman posted it and don't believe that one. Models just don't forecast the MJO well.

[BlizzardWx]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

ONI: -0.45

NDJ 2024  26.09  -0.53
  DJF 2025  26.05  -0.59
  JFM 2025  26.49  -0.38
  FMA 2025  27.11  -0.18
  MAM 2025  27.60  -0.09
  AMJ 2025  27.72  -0.11
  MJJ 2025  27.54  -0.11
  JJA 2025  27.11  -0.19
  JAS 2025  26.63  -0.32
  ASO 2025  26.31  -0.45

————
RONI: -0.78

NDJ  2024 -1.07
DJF  2025 -1.12
JFM  2025 -0.90
FMA  2025 -0.67
MAM  2025 -0.52
AMJ  2025 -0.49
MJJ  2025 -0.43
JJA  2025 -0.47
JAS  2025 -0.63
ASO  2025 -0.78

————

So, RONI less ONI -0.33

 

RONI less ONI:

NDJ -0.54

DJF -0.53

JFM -0.52

FMA -0.49

MAM -0.43

AMJ -0.38

MJJ -0.32

JJA -0.28

JAS -0.31

ASO -0.33

 So, after slowly falling NDJ through JJA, RONI less ONI has bounced back some.
 

ONI link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

On my page you can plot the daily values for most of the indices anybody cares about. RONI is below -1.2 now. 

https://weathersigma.com/sst?i=RONI

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I hope it's right, but honestly didn't believe it when Snowman posted it and don't believe that one. Models just don't forecast the MJO well.

Just like anything else weather wise, the further out you go, the less meaningful they are.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Just like anything else weather wise, the further out you go, the less meaningful they are.  

I like the fact, however, we finally have Roundy in our corner.

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I like the fact, however, we finally have Roundy in our corner.

Roundy’s plots look good for the tail end of this month into early-mid December. You won’t like what they show for mid-late December however. Stadiumwave mentioned that fact last week

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my outlook.

 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Roundy’s plots look good for the tail end of this month into early-mid December. You won’t like what they show for mid-late December however. Stadiumwave mentioned that fact last week

So there's still a thread of hope for you that we get a warm and snowless winter for you and others of your ilk to sit back and enjoy the meltdowns? 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So there's still a thread of hope for you that we get a warm and snowless winter for you and others of your ilk to sit back and enjoy the meltdowns? 

Now you can read minds? Wow just wow. If you have “meltdowns” over the weather you need to check yourself into a psych ward

[kazimirkai]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

Any opinions about this, which suggests Greenland blocking throughout this winter?

@bluewave@snowman19

I'll ask him about it tomorrow. The tool hes using is his own lowpass filter, which he's mentioned is only one of many metrics to refer to, identifying the base state, from which higher-frequency signals like the MJO superimpose on top of when they're stronger. He has been serious about the RMM forecasts lately though. We go over the recent runs at the beginning of each class. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Now you can read minds? Wow just wow. If you have “meltdowns” over the weather you need to check yourself into a psych ward

42 years as a lawyer, and you learn to understand people's motivations. Sorry, that's my impression of your motivations, along with others.

[stadiumwave]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Roundy’s plots look good for the tail end of this month into early-mid December. You won’t like what they show for mid-late December however. Stadiumwave mentioned that fact last week

 

It updated again though. The update briefly shifts trough west but then the -EPO comes back with a vengeance & it stays very wintry look through entire month of JAN with trough east.  That is what led to whoever posted that on X. In the original X-post Roundy gives explantation of the tool:

 

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1987512542269218907?t=NZtDEqvG5ceU83Q9TrzQ9g&s=19

[michsnowfreak]

Snowed all day here in SE MI yesterday and throughout the Great Lakes. Mid 20s with wind chills in the teens this morning and a winter wonderland. Snow is falling in KY and TN today and record cold is plunging into the south with freeze warnings over the entire southeast and into Florida. It's not going to last, and the east will miss the brunt, but to already see type a large cold snap like this before mid November can't be a bad sign. 

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snowed all day here in SE MI yesterday and throughout the Great Lakes. Mid 20s with wind chills in the teens this morning and a winter wonderland. Snow is falling in KY and TN today and record cold is plunging into the south with freeze warnings over the entire southeast and into Florida. It's not going to last, and the east will miss the brunt, but to already see type a large cold snap like this before mid November can't be a bad sign. 

Great pic!  Congrats on the fist accumulating snow.  Snow on that, I'm guessing burning bush?, looks really pretty.