2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s possible I’m mistaken? But I thought that happened last December? Maybe it was the year before?

It wasn’t Dec. of ‘24. Yeah, you must be thinking of another year, perhaps ‘23 as you suggested though ‘23 actually had a pretty strong 1 and 2 Dec 23-31 (maybe models were too strong in 8 though). Here’s ‘23:

 

 For Dec of ‘24, they correctly predicted 4-5-6-7 (they didn’t predict 8-1-2), but they tended to not be strong enough in 4-5:

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

OT: My flashdrive that contained the ENSO data became unreadable today. Fortunately, I have a backup that is reasonably up-to-date. Pre-device failure might have led to a corruption of the data e.g., the wrong ENSO values for some of the cases referenced previously in this discussion. 

In the meantime, it looks like Savannah could see its earliest first freeze since 2010.

That's what happens when you save my posts.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The models were real bad in the long range with the MJO last December. They kept showing an amplified MJO wave going 8-1-2 which obviously didn’t happen

The GEFS last December was hinting at a big push into 7. But the MJO slowed in the warmer 5-6 phases mid to late December with the +EPO warm up.

We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3.

Then the MJO missed phase 8 last February when we had the first 5 sigma Greenland block link up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

 

[EasternLI]

I've been occasionally browsing these myself. Nice of him to provide an explanation here of how it works/what it does/what it's doing. 

 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did briefly get a MJO 8 last January but it was more pronounced in 1-3.
 

 

Thanks, Chris.

 It still was a 6 day long phase 8 last January (Jan 7-12) that peaked at a decent amplitude of 2.1. I consider that near an average length phase 8 in January rather than brief. Phase 8’s 6 days was as long or longer than any other phase last January as it went around to phase 4.

 Granted, the average amplitude of the 6 days in phase 8 wasn’t nearly as high as that of phases 1-4, which were closer to 2 and thus not as pronounced an amplitude as those as you said, but it still averaged ~1.3, a moderate phase 8. I consider weak to be <1, moderate 1-2, and strong 2+. So, I have it as an avg length near avg amplitude phase 8 during last Jan. I have phases 1-3 of last Jan at higher than average amp and fairly close to an avg length overall. Phase 4’s amp was closer to avg.

*Edited last 2 sentences

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 It still was a 6 day long phase 8 last January (Jan 7-12) that peaked at a decent amplitude of 2.1. I consider that near an average length phase 8 in January rather than brief. Phase 8’s 6 days was as long or longer than any other phase last January as it went around to phase 4.

 Granted, the average amplitude of the 6 days in phase 8 wasn’t nearly as high as that of phases 1-4, which were closer to 2 and thus not as pronounced an amplitude as those as you said, but it still averaged ~1.3, a moderate phase 8. I consider weak to be <1, moderate 1-2, and strong 2+. So, I have it as an avg length near avg amplitude phase 8 during last Jan. I have phases 1-4 of last Jan at higher than average amp and fairly close to an avg length overall.

It was still too brief a phase 8 last January to significantly weaken the Pacific Jet. So the kicker shortwaves coming into Western North America prevented the record Gulf Coast snowstorm from coming up the coast. Our last impressive MJO 8 was back in January 2022 allowing the Pacific Jet to relax and the great snowstorms to affect ACY-ISP-BOS.
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

It has begun. The first snow today. Absolutely beautiful and it NEVER gets old. Just over an inch, wouldve been more without the early November ground temps and 32-33 air temps. But the first snow always tells me...its show time!

I notice the weeklies got their colder look back as well. 

[brooklynwx99]

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Such is consistent with strong -QBO

Last year we had strong +QBO, and Nov-Feb had one of the stronger 10mb PV's on record. 

2 years ago in strong -QBO, we had 4 Stratosphere warming events. 

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

very aggressive weakening of the SPV today 

Drop the PV over the hudson bay all winter long, ala 2013-2014.

[GaWx]

Any opinions about this, which suggests Greenland blocking throughout this winter?

@bluewave@snowman19