2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I have no doubt that the MJO gets into phase 6. My question is, what happens when it gets into phase 7? As we have seen time and time again over the years, the models inaccurately project it barreling right through phase 7, 8 and 1 with amplitude only to be have it die in phase 7. Definitely something to watch going forward later on in November @bluewave 

 

Last 2 winters it has a hard time getting into phase 8. This might continue. 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Paltry to say the least. 

Not even close

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Last 2 winters it has a hard time getting into phase 8. This might continue. 

Last winter was cold. The problem was the storm track for many.

[stadiumwave]

https://x.com/WeatherCast3/status/1983676660441608298?t=MkG2LcaKNgoy2livxLnTfQ&s=19

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1983600768579231901?t=9Rm6DaUjXjnWGAtakpFQ2g&s=19

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Last 2 winters it has a hard time getting into phase 8. This might continue. 

I agree. How many times over the last few years have we fell for believing long range model projections that the MJO is going to barrel right through phases 7-8-1 with amplitude only to get burned? Time and again. We are talking about model projections for a month away.  It couldn’t even do it when there was an El Niño in 2023-24. I’m not saying it can’t happen but until I see more evidence that it’s actually going to happen in real time color me skeptical. This is a rather healthy La Niña/-IOD atmospherically and oceanically. As the old saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me

[donsutherland1]

Some Washington, DC winter forecasts: https://wapo.st/3JxBxBT

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

A warm or cold November has nothing to do with the winter or the start of winter. We've seen multiple examples in recent years of cold, snowy Novembers followed by mild Decembers.

The fall temperature pattern across the CONUS and or Canada will usually carry over into winter in some way especially when there is a significant temperature departure in either direction. Sometimes it can be an extreme in either October or November that shows up during the winter either in Canada or the CONUS.

A great example of this was the 4th coldest October across the CONUS before  the cold and snowy 09-10 winter across the CONUS. Then the record cold and snow in November 2014 especially in the Great Lakes into the East which preceded the cold in January and February of 2015. Then the fall cold in 2018 up in Canada which came before the all-time coldest reading at Rockford, Illinois late in January 2019.

Same goes for all the recent record fall warmth prior to the record number of +10 winter departures at spots in the CONUS. We saw this as recently as last winter with the 4th warmest December across the CONUS and stations out West getting near +10 in December following one of our warmest falls across the CONUS.

This fall to winter warmth pattern also emerged in other recent years. Plus the really cold winters in our colder climate era of the 1970s like 76-77 began with record cold as early as late August through the fall into the winter. So the relationship isn’t always an even one to one. But when we are seeing extremes of warmth or cold during the fall, then it usually follows in some way during the winter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Here’s what a very knowledgeable non-met recently posted about my observation regarding the historic January in the SE US occurring despite a very strong SPV

What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue,

+TNH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What happens in November, the winter will remember. That’s a very old saying, often repeated by Big Joe Bastardi back in the day.

There's a newer saying: What gets clicks, Bastardi will remember.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm sure this was next on snowman's list of Webb tweets to embed

[FPizz]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure this was next on snowman's list of Webb tweets to embed

He posts on a philly weather discord, he seems pretty pumped about the fast start in the east.  

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure this was next on snowman's list of Webb tweets to embed

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

[roardog]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

It was interesting to track 10 years ago, now it’s just boring. 

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

Nice deflection

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Nice deflection

Nice trolling as usual. Which is pretty much what I’d expect from you since you’re totally useless for anything else in this thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

He posts on a philly weather discord, he seems pretty pumped about the fast start in the east.  

Webb?

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

That is just an aside for me....certaintly not weighted much...regardless of the indication.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure this was next on snowman's list of Webb tweets to embed

 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

He posts on a philly weather discord, he seems pretty pumped about the fast start in the east.  

 

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll tell you what you won’t see on X, Judah’s final report on the voodoo Siberian snowcover advance for October. There was no miracle big snow buildup the last week of this month

 

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Nice deflection

 

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nice trolling as usual. Which is pretty much what I’d expect from you since you’re totally useless for anything else in this thread

Good rainy morning all….i can never repay this forum for what it’s done for my cognitive health. As always ……

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Last 2 winters it has a hard time getting into phase 8. This might continue. 

Our last successful MJO 8 with a cold and snowy benchmark pattern was back in January 2022. This featured the relaxation of the Pacific Jet.

As recently as last February the MJO stalled out in Phase 7 before going back into the circle. So the Pacific Jet remained extended near record levels and we got our first -5 SD Greenland block linking up with the Southeast ridge with a big cutter and Toronto record snowstorm.

Last February was a west based La Niña with a warm Nino 1+2. During January 2022 we got a stronger east based La Niña when the forcing made into the favorable phase 8.

So with how strong the Pacific Jet currently is and it’s only October, would want to see a phase 8 at some point this winter in order to potentially weaken it with such a strong gradient between Siberia and the WPAC to south of the Aleutians.

But won’t have any confidence in such an outcome until we get to within the short term. Since the default since February 2022 has been the MJO getting over to 6-7 and heading back into the circle and missing phase 8.

Even when the RMM charts went into 8 during March 2023, the Pacific Jet wasn’t able to relax so the storm hugged the coast and the NE higher elevations cashed in instead. March 2023 was also a west based La Niña with warming in Nino 1+2.

So even if we can see a phase 8 this winter, it’s no guarantee we will see what happed in January 2022 again as Nino 1+2 has remained warmer than 3.4 into this fall. As the EWBs have been stalling out further west.

 

[FPizz]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Webb?

Yes.  It is similar to his X posts, but goes into it a little more.  I'll share his thoughts here if they are more detailed than his X posts.

 

[snowman19]

If this is correct and it appears to be, this -IOD may be getting down to -2. Would be record breaking and have a very substantial impact on the global forcing
 

[GaWx]

 From Eric Webb at another BB just now:

 A few other things I think that are playing into our favor at least for December:

 Being in a La Niña with a slower-moving and more amplified MJO (due in part to the easterly QBO) makes a subsequent -NAO and weaker polar vortex/-NAM more likely.

 The current global tropics SSTa are also almost the exact opposite of the MJO phase speed & SST correlation pattern derived from Suematsu & Miura (2021), favoring slower MJO events that typically have stronger and more consistent extratropical teleconnections as Yadav et al (2024) + Yadav & Straus (2017) and Tseng et al (2020) have argued respectively.

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 From Eric Webb at another BB just now:

 A few other things I think that are playing into our favor at least for December:

 Being in a La Niña with a slower-moving and more amplified MJO (due in part to the easterly QBO) makes a subsequent -NAO and weaker polar vortex/-NAM more likely.

 The current global tropics SSTa are also almost the exact opposite of the MJO phase speed & SST correlation pattern derived from Suematsu & Miura (2021), favoring slower MJO events that typically have stronger and more consistent extratropical teleconnections as Yadav et al (2024) + Yadav & Straus (2017) and Tseng et al (2020) have argued respectively.

Nice, you must be on the board I was referencing, or he posts on multiple boards   

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Nice, you must be on the board I was referencing, or he posts on multiple boards   

Webb posts on multiple forums because this isn’t from the Philly discord you mentioned.

[GaWx]

New from Webb

I have pretty high confidence December is gonna try to make things real interesting this year.

I can’t quite figure out what’s going to happen in the heart of the winter this year. 

Do we get a mid winter thaw as we get an Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent orbit with another favorable S2S look later in January or do we keep the good times rolling throughout most of this period?

If the tropospheric circulation anomalies can get anchored into the stratosphere (a stratospheric warming event for ex), that’s probably how we can keep the good times rolling well into January. 

The stratosphere likely won’t matter much for this first round of mjo forcing in December, but it probably will be an important factor in January and February

I.e. could help keep the -NAO/-AO going beyond the timescale of the initial mjo forcing (as mentioned previously) or enhancing wave reflection Feb (+TNH) if its strong by then.

[bluewave]

Just remember the long range models this time of year through November often show nice looking patterns to start December and try to continue them for the entire month. We saw this last year with the strong -EPO forecast from late November into December which reversed in mid to late December.

The models completely underestimated the Pacific Jet and flip to +EPO later in December. The EPS weeklies in early December looked great for the whole month. But they kept underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet. I was discussing this in the threads last December.

This could be the case this year if the MJO slows in phase 6-7 later in November into early December and loops back into the circle before emerging into 4-6 by mid or late December.

Just something to watch since we have had warm ups every December since 2011 from 16th to the 25th like clockwork. These periods had convection near the MJO 4-6 phases which weren’t very well forecast in advance. Plus even if the MJO wasn’t too amplified in phases 4-6, it would still shift the pattern warmer than the start of the month.

There could be a new seasonality to this since the 2nd half of December has been warming at faster rate than early December. I have been discussing this since 2011. Anthony Masiello also made a post about this for his area last December on one of the social media platforms.