2025-2026 ENSO

[winter_warlock]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be pretty suprised if we don't see at least one round of significant blocking.

Blocking would be nice but we've had  blocking many times with a perfect set up and still storms missed us.   Sometimes  a strong block can actually keep storms too far south.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure how you interpret my composites in that manner. It's not a KU cookbook, no....ah, you live in Jersey, so maybe.

Any warm anomaly at all is extremely bad news for snow south of Connecticut.

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Any warm anomaly at all is extremely bad news for snow south of Connecticut.

I haven't seen one bad winter outlook yet for the east coast. Hopefully that holds.

[chris21]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Any warm anomaly at all is extremely bad news for snow south of Connecticut.

For the coastal plain/piedmont that is true. At my location in extreme NW NC at 4000 feet, we have had many above normal snow years in warm winters. We average at least 45 inches and approximately 80 percent of that comes from upslope. We have never had a winter without at least 20 inches of snow here mostly due to the reliability of upslope even in total dud winters.

[anthonymm]

4 minutes ago, chris21 said:

For the coastal plain/piedmont that is true. At my location in extreme NW NC at 4000 feet, we have had many above normal snow years in warm winters. We average at least 45 inches and approximately 80 percent of that comes from upslope. We have never had a winter without at least 20 inches of snow here mostly due to the reliability of upslope even in total dud winters.

Elevation is cheating yes.