2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

@snowman19You seem to pointing out why 2013 isn't a replica analog rather than why we can't see similar sensible weather adjusted for CC....as far as the former, I agree...no season really is; but I think the latter is entirely feasible.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, I think the trend concerning the PDO is what is of most relevence with respect to sensible weather, not the absolute value. Secondly, the RONI is nearly dead-nuts on with 2013....and finally, I'm not sure the solar and statosphere differences are really that big of a deal. First of all, that was a very strongly +AO/NAO season, so that wasn't the main hemispheric driver, anyway. Additionally, I have written in great detail about how an easterly QBO near solar max isn't as hostile to episodes of high latitude blocking as some seem to think. We are probably going to see more arctic blocking than we did that year.

Replica season? No....western Pacific is less favorable and CC has continued...but I see no reason why it can't be included in varuious seasonal composites, as it has been, and continues to be.

IMO a ton of cooling has to happen in the northwest PAC over an extended period of time this fall. The cooling pattern has to be sustained over a long time. Let’s see what happens. SSTs that far above normal do feedback into the pattern and alter the global heat budget. If we were talking about anomalies of +2 or +3, then yes, I’d agree that it’s not feeding back, but this incredibly warm? I think the latent and sensible heat release absolutely does alter the global long wave pattern and is a very important factor like @donsutherland1 pointed out 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO a ton of cooling has to happen in the northwest PAC over an extended period of time this fall. The cooling pattern has to be sustained over a long time. Let’s see what happens. SSTs that far above normal do feedback into the pattern and alter the global heat budget. If we were talking about anomalies of +2 or +3, then yes, I’d agree that it’s not feeding back, but this incredibly warm? I think the latent and sensible heat release absolutely does alter the global long wave pattern and is a very important factor like @donsutherland1 pointed out 

I think you are obfuscating the PDO and WPO a bit. I think a severely +WPO does cap most of the mid atl and SNE at a near normal snowfall season....but I was referring to the PDO more in my response to you. There are plenty of severely negative PDO seasons that were very snowy in the east, but most of them are aged analogs due to the WPO, which has been biased very positive this decade by the warm pool. I don't think it needs to cool as much as you think to remain positve, but to a degree that isn't as prohibitive to wintry weather in the eastern US.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

Synoptic scale events can still lead to snowy outcomes even with hostile boundary conditions. The super El Niño winter of 2015-16 is an example. There was a single massive snowstorm that skewed the numbers. There was also a severe Arctic outbreak that sent the mercury in Central Park to -1° on February 14. Much of the rest of the winter was very warm with a lack of snowfall. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.

I am starting to think this has the potential to be a big winter in the east, especially New England. I like what I am seeing with the warm pool that has developed just off the pacific NW, that is something that was present in our big +PNA/-EPO winters. There are also signs that the La Niña is going to be east based, which is another point in our favor. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am starting to think this has the potential to be a big winter in the east, especially New England. I like what I am seeing with the warm pool that has developed just off the pacific NW, that is something that was present in our big +PNA/-EPO winters. There are also signs that the La Niña is going to be east based, which is another point in our favor. 

Not sure winter averages +PNA per se, but it should be volatile.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure winter averages +PNA per se, but it should be volatile.

I can see -EPO. +PNA? Not really

[EasternLI]

Modeled sst forecasts aside. It's at least slightly interesting to compare the north Pacific layout currently emerging this year, in early September, to the same time period from 2013.

[snowman19]

[George001]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can see -EPO. -PNA? Not really

How come? I know you don’t like the 13-14 analog, so I’ll bring up a different year that is a better PDO match. Jan 2022 was strongly +PNA with a -2.7 PDO 

[snowman19]

How come? I know you don’t like the 13-14 analog, so I’ll bring up a different year that is a better PDO match. Jan 2022 was strongly +PNA with a -2.7 PDO 

Home come? Because 2nd year Niña’s very strongly favor -PNA

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can see -EPO. -PNA? Not really

You mean +PNA?

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So basically if we cant cool the western pac down say goodbye to snowy winters in the east?

I mean it’s very clear how you can see the connection in the pattern progressions-the warm W PAC drives a faster Pacific jet, that pushes the ridge/trough orientation out of a favorable position in the East or knocks the western ridge down altogether, which means the pattern can’t amplify (suppression) or amplification in the wrong place (out to sea or cutter). Last winter we saw it repeat time and time again. With a better Pacific, NYC would’ve hit 50” since we did get cold intervals that could’ve supported snow. 

And by the East I mean south of I-90 to north of DC. SWFEs can deliver plenty of snow to I-90 and N, and suppressed crap can work for DC. Not here. SWFE can be okay here once in a blue moon-we had one decent SWFE in Feb but I would never bet on them for NYC. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@snowman19My guess is that while the majority of the season is -PNA, we are gong to have month that is gong to be strongly +PNA....probably coinciding with +NAO mid season before any SSW. Season probably averages pretty close to neautral with a slight hedge towards negative.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19You seem to pointing out why 2013 isn't a replica analog rather than why we can't see similar sensible weather adjusted for CC....as far as the former, I agree...no season really is; but I think the latter is entirely feasible.

I dont think we'll ever see another 2013-14 here and I've said that many times. However, if everything aligned pattern wise for a similar winter (again, highly unlikely), I do not buy for one minute the bogus "new climate weather adjustment" bs. The winter of 2013-14 was decades into the mainstream acknowledgment of "global warming" and was the most severe winter this area had recorded.

If you get a favorable pattern where everything aligns for any given region, you absolutely can get a severe winter and cc is going to do nothing to stop it.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Home come? Because 2nd year Niña’s very strongly favor -PNA

Last year wasn't a nina. It was cool neutral. I know winters generally suck now but it seems you're really grasping at straws

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Last year wasn't a nina. It was cool neutral. I know winters generally suck now but it seems you're really grasping at straws

kinda seems like ur "grasping at straws". everything about last year was a la nina except enso, which was pretty close. it's foolish to think that -0.4 is much different than -0.7.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

kinda seems like ur "grasping at straws". everything about last year was a la nina except enso, which was pretty close. it's foolish to think that -0.4 is much different than -0.7.

Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state.

I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.