2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last cooler summer relative to earlier periods was in 2014. But we haven’t had a significantly cooler summer relative to the past since 2009. That was our last top 10 coldest June into July period. 

Technically, it was 2023, if we go strictly by JJA. However, September was warmer than June in 2023, so JAS 2023 would have taken us above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

[so_whats_happening]

Last year to this year look at the subsurface.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had a top 10 warmest summer here in the Northeast at many locations. Also top 10 for 90° days during the summer and 70° summer minimums along with record high dewpoints. Several spots also had a top 10 driest summer. 

All-time heat for June with several spots in the 102-105° range which was a first for the month of June. We have seen this theme frequently during the 2020s. Heat peaking earlier in the season and relaxing a bit relative to the early season during August some years like this one.

Familiar new pattern this decade with summer heat in the West and East while cooler in the middle of the nation.  

For the period from 2010 to 2025 the Northeast has experienced 13 out of 16 warmer to record wam summers. Most summers have finished somewhere in the top 10 for warmth over this period.

The last cooler summer relative to earlier periods was in 2014. But we haven’t had a significantly cooler summer relative to the past since 2009. That was our last top 10 coldest June into July period. 
 

 

Detroit tied with 2 other years for 7th most days with mins of 70°+ (24) but tied with 10 other years for 44th most days of 90°+ (14). You can see it was the nights that did the lifting.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

For August in a lot of locations in the NJ/PA/Deleware/Maryland area it was pretty cool and some places top 5 others top 20. Havent seen pretty much any posts about that from the typical stat heads. Very dry in the area as well.

My friend in Long Island said it was the most comfortable August he could remember. 

Here, the last week of August saw the traditional cold spots of SE MI dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. I dont care that they are the usual cold spots...its very impressive to have that on multiple nights in August. 

This is August 30th:

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My friend in Long Island said it was the most comfortable August he could remember. 

Here, the last week of August saw the traditional cold spots of SE MI dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. I dont care that they are the usual cold spots...its very impressive to have that on multiple nights in August. 

This is August 30th:

New York City had its coolest August since 2000.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/28/2025 at 7:49 AM, bluewave said:

Departures keep changing every 10 years so they are a subjective measure in a warming climate. Rankings are fixed based on the actual comparisons to past events making them an objective measure.

In the old days the departures and rankings were directly related when the temperatures didn’t vary much with each new 10 year update prior to the 1980s. This is the reason that records are based on the actual rankings and not departures.

A daily record high or low at a place like Boston is the actual temperature according to the rank. Since a record low for example will always be the number one ranked coldest temperature on a specific date. The record is not based on the numerical departure.  So it will always be an objective measure.

Now if you are doing simple seasonal outlooks then you will rely on departures for above and below areas on the maps. But this is only one metric for doing these seasonal outlooks. It’s a good starting point as to what you think the forecast will look like. 

Let’s say you were doing a summer outlook for a client in BTV. It would be a good summer outlook if you showed above normal temperatures. But if you wanted to stand out from the rest of the pack, then  you would attempt to let the client know what the sensible weather would be.

Since the 1991-2020 climate normals are the warmest on record, BTV is only currently at +1.8. This would lead the average person who is not familiar with the changing departures to think that the summer would just feel a little warmer than average.

But this is a subjective measure based on the recent climate. BTV is currently ranked 3 warmest summer on record. 5 days reaching 95 was the 4 th highest ever for a summer. The summer had 17 days reaching 90 and was the 4th highest. The 99° in June was 2nd highest for the month.

 

Rankings are also misleading these days too, because of so many recent years being anomalously warm. I suspect the CONUS finishes in 12th place for summertime mean. However, if it does so, it would be warmer than EVERY summer before 2006, except for the dust bowl juggernauts of 1936 & 1934. For those of us who were around in the 1990s, those seemed like insurmountable numbers. Not even scorching summers like 1995 and 1988 could surpass those. And so the 12th place finish really seems to undersell just how hot this summer was. In the 1990s or early 2000s, if someone came out and said this summer the CONUS would be hotter than every year except 1934 & 1936, everybody would recognize that is a VERY hot summer with massive cooling demands, etc. The media would be running constant stories about the heat and ramping up hysteria about climate change and a new dust bowl. That doesn't happen anymore.

With that said, 1936 still holds the #1 slot (now tied with 2021). I think it's only a matter of time before we see a summer (or summers) that far surpass anything previously observed when you look at how many recent summers are in the top 10 nationally. It won't take much more warming to get us to that point.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit tied with 2 other years for 7th most days with mins of 70°+ (24) but tied with 10 other years for 44th most days of 90°+ (14). You can see it was the nights that did the lifting.

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

Nighttime lows holding up temperatures here too. This summer:

June High/Low:  -0.3F / +1.9F
July High/Low: -1.2 F / +3.2 F
August High/Low: -3.6F / +0.9F 

I don't think this is too unusual around here either. Lows are being held up by higher moisture levels. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Technically, it was 2023, if we go strictly by JJA. However, September was warmer than June in 2023, so JAS 2023 would have taken us above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

JJA 2023 was actually a little warmer against the long term averages. But since 2010-2025 has been so warm it felt cooler.

You can see how this summer matched the 2010-2024 pattern with warmth in the East and West with cooler in the mid section of the nation.

This is the same way that this winter felt colder by comparison to the much warmer winters since 15-16. But it was still warmer than the long term average in the Northeast. 
 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

Despite the hype on twitter that there’s going to be a huge Atlantic tropical burst this month, this isn’t looking so hot @PhiEaglesfan712
 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit tied with 2 other years for 7th most days with mins of 70°+ (24) but tied with 10 other years for 44th most days of 90°+ (14). You can see it was the nights that did the lifting.

My area along the CT Shoreline finished with the 2nd highest  number of 90° days at 15. The high of 98° in June set the new monthly all-time high by +2°. Overall the summer was the 4th warmest here with many top 10 warmest in recent years.

So I was very grateful for the much cooler temperatures to end the summer. The low of 51° was the 7th coldest for the month of August. The drop from the record high dewpoints earlier in the summer really helped out. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Top 10 highest  90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	17	0
2	2025	15	121
3	2010	14	0
4	1977	13	100
5	2021	12	0
-	2020	12	2
-	2012	12	3
6	2013	11	0
7	2002	10	3
-	1952	10	0
8	2024	9	1
9	2023	8	1
-	2019	8	2
-	2018	8	3
-	2016	8	0
-	1955	8	0
10	2011	7	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jun Highest monthly max temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	98	0
2	1957	96	0
3	2012	95	0
4	2021	94	0
5	2008	93	0
-	1974	93	0
-	1964	93	0
-	1953	93	0
-	1952	93	0
6	2024	92	0
-	1968	92	0
-	1966	92	0
-	1956	92	0
-	1949	92	0
7	1965	91	0
-	1963	91	0
8	2022	90	0
-	2020	90	0
-	2019	90	0
-	2013	90	0
-	2010	90	0
-	2003	90	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Top 10 Warmest Summer
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	75.4	0
2	2024	75.2	0
3	2020	74.9	2
4	2025	74.5	0
5	2010	74.3	0
6	2021	74.2	0
7	2019	74.0	0
8	1977	73.8	31
9	2018	73.6	0
10	2012	73.5	0

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	72.9	0
2	2025	71.8	0
3	1976	71.4	0
4	2021	71.3	0
5	2010	71.0	0
6	1977	70.9	23
7	2008	70.8	0
8	2020	70.1	0
9	1957	69.9	0
10	2013	69.7	0
-	1949	69.7	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Aug Top 10 lowest monthly minimum temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1976	43	0
2	1965	45	0
3	1952	46	0
4	1964	48	0
-	1957	48	0
-	1956	48	0
-	1949	48	0
5	1971	49	0
-	1968	49	0
-	1948	49	0
6	1955	50	0
-	1953	50	0
7	2025	51	0
-	2006	51	0
-	2004	51	4

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Take it FWIW, but If (IF) this is correct, pray for a -EPO winter again
 

Not too worried about that. Largest bias of climate models is to over-bake ENSO into the forecast, which should be weak. While I expect a +NAO, it's not going to be wall-to-wall IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JJA 2023 was actually a little warmer against the long term averages. But since 2010-2025 has been so warm it felt cooler.

You can see how this summer matched the 2010-2024 pattern with warmth in the East and West with cooler in the mid section of the nation.

This is the same way that this winter felt colder by comparison to the much warmer winters since 15-16. But it was still warmer than the long term average in the Northeast. 
 

 

 

 

I don't think you are going to get pushback from anyone about how exceedingly difficult it is to get any season to finish below the longer term 1895-2000 climo...this is why I never use that climo base. It's not because I'm in denial about anything or trying to dissociate, but it's for the same reason that I don't begin every outlook by rehashing that the sky is blue.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

It used to work out that way more often before 2010-2011. But for some reason things have reversed since then. So the weaker RONI winters of the multiyear events turned out to be the warmer winters. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

DJF  2023 -0.83…warmest winter of the 3 year La Niña

DJF  2022 -1.21

DJF  2021 -1.17

DJF  2018 -1.10

DJF  2017 -0.73…warmest winter of 2 year La Nina

DJF  2012 -0.82…warmest winter of 2 year La Niña

DJF  2011 -1.42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think you are going to get pushback from anyone about how exceedingly difficult it is to get any season to finish below the longer term 1895-2000 climo...this is why I never use that climo base. It's not because I'm in denial about anything or trying to disassociate, but it's for the same reason that I don't begin every outlook by rehashing that the sky is blue.

The main reason I use it is that my analysis and forecasts are based on the perspectives. So I need to compare it to what has happened in the period of record.

But I understand that many seasonal forecasts are 1991-2020 departure based on where the areas of above and below temperatures are located. 

My guess from several years back that our next colder winter would only be colder relative to the much warmer 1991-2020 baseline worked out. As this past winter in the Northeast would have been slightly warmer based on earlier periods of record.

DJF 2024-2025 Northeast 24.6° 

1895-2000….+1.4°

1961-1990……+1.8°

1971-2000……+0.5°

1981-2010…….-0.3°

1991-2020……-1.2°

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main reason I use it is that my analysis and forecasts are based on the perspectives. So I need to compare it to what has happened in the period of record.

But I understand that many seasonal forecasts are 1991-2020 departure based on where the areas of above and below temperatures are located. 

My guess from several years back that our next colder winter would only be colder relative to the much warmer 1991-2020 baseline worked out. As this past winter in the Northeast would have been slightly warmer based on earlier periods of record.

DJF 2024-2025 Northeast 24.6° 

1895-2000….+1.4°

1961-1990……+1.8°

1971-2000……+0.5°

1981-2010…….-0.3°

1991-2020……-1.2°

 

 

I agree for the most part, but I still think we could pull off a sub 1981-2010 climo. I think it would be a low return type of anomaly, but I don't think that ship has sailed quite yet. I may be wrong-

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

JJA 2023 was actually a little warmer against the long term averages. But since 2010-2025 has been so warm it felt cooler.

You can see how this summer matched the 2010-2024 pattern with warmth in the East and West with cooler in the mid section of the nation.

This is the same way that this winter felt colder by comparison to the much warmer winters since 15-16. But it was still warmer than the long term average in the Northeast. 
 

 

 

 

Your summer 2025 was only for June and July. Adding August will make a noticeable difference methinks. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Your summer 2025 was only for June and July. Adding August will make a noticeable difference methinks. 

The August maps won’t update for several more days on that site. But the summer maps on some other sites that have updated are the same pattern. Warm in the East and West with cooler in the middle. The prism maps already updated for JJA with numerous  top 10 warmest summer rankings for the Northeast.

 

 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The August maps won’t update for several more days on that site. But the summer maps on some other sites that have updated are the same pattern. Warm in the East and West with cooler in the middle. The prism maps already updated for JJA with numerous  top 10 warmest summer rankings for the Northeast.

 

 

That map, though maybe close and maybe not, is not completely accurate per the map creator. 

https://prism.oregonstate.edu/historical/

They even state: Values prior to 1981 are based on less extensive observations.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The August maps won’t update for several more days on that site. But the summer maps on some other sites that have updated are the same pattern. Warm in the East and West with cooler in the middle. The prism maps already updated for JJA with numerous  top 10 warmest summer rankings for the Northeast.

 

 

According to Harrisburg Capital Airport, that's been open in the same location and collecting data since 1939, this summer was -.7F. 

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That map, though maybe close and maybe not, is not completely accurate per the map creator. 

https://prism.oregonstate.edu/historical/

They even state: Values prior to 1981 are based on less extensive observations.

It comes out before the NOAA maps but has been reasonably close based on recent experience to what the NOAA updates have been.

The state of PA had their 3rd warmest June and July period on record at 71.8°.

The summer ranking will be lower when NCEI updates in a few weeks since August was cooler.

 

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Despite the hype on twitter that there’s going to be a huge Atlantic tropical burst this month, this isn’t looking so hot @PhiEaglesfan712
 

Yeah, it's about time to face the music and accept that this season may be a below average activity hurricane season. Keep in mind, we're at the point when Felix hit. No major storms formed after that point that year, and that was a strong la nina.

A one-storm wonder season is not even unprecedented. Andrew hit in August, like Erin, and there wasn't another major storm the rest of the season.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It comes out before the NOAA maps but has been reasonably close based on recent experience to what the NOAA updates have been.

The state of PA had their 3rd warmest June and July period on record at 71.8°.

The summer ranking will be lower when NCEI updates in a few weeks since August was cooler.

 

Doubt it in reality, but with the website you're using it may be the case 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like a Greenland block in October: 

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Doubt it in reality, but with the website you're using it may be the case 

NOAA's official website has June-July as 3rd warmest, only behind 1949 and 1934

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/mapping/36/tavg/202507/2/anomaly

 

Important to note that it also shows that the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th warmest June-Julys for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2005.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

NOAA's official website has June-July as 3rd warmest, only behind 1949 and 1934

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/mapping/36/tavg/202507/2/anomaly

 

Important to note that it also shows that the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th warmest June-Julys for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2005.

First, I know they try, but since there are so many stations that haven't existed since 1901, they are obviously filling in blanks. Where they received that info and how it's calculated makes or breaks it's accuracy. The fact is, Capital City airport in the northern tip of York County was +2.2 and +2.5 for June/July going back to 1939 and York Airport since the start of recording back to 1998, at the southern end of York County, was +2.1 and 2.9. They have York County at +4.1. That map has the the entire County in +3-5. So we're relying on exactly what to piece temps?

As for the recent heat, it means nothing to me. I'm not scared.

 

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

Very interesting...here its BY FAR most noticeable in summer. Winter mins still tank on clear nights. The only thing that holds them up is an overcast Great Lakes night, often accompanied by snow showers, while west of Lake MI will be clear and cold. Theres no comparison between summer and winter mins.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Nighttime lows holding up temperatures here too. This summer:

June High/Low:  -0.3F / +1.9F
July High/Low: -1.2 F / +3.2 F
August High/Low: -3.6F / +0.9F 

I don't think this is too unusual around here either. Lows are being held up by higher moisture levels. 

Upon further analysis - apparently it wasnt as extreme as I thought. The nighttime lows really did the lifting from late June thru July, but not the entire summer.

June High/Low:  +2.3F / +2.1F
July High/Low: +1.2F / +2.6F
August High/Low: -0.9F / -1.4F

December High/Low: +1.8F / +2.2F
January High/Low: -2.4F / -3.0F
February High/Low: -2.4F / -1.4F
 

 

[George001]

In theory the atmosphere should be even more nina like than last year. La Niña development started taking off around a month ago, and will likely be stronger than it was last year in late fall. Whether it lasts long enough to register as an official La Niña by ONI is uncertain, but it doesn’t really matter. At this point, the logical assumption is to expect weak la Niña conditions this winter.