2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last cooler summer relative to earlier periods was in 2014. But we haven’t had a significantly cooler summer relative to the past since 2009. That was our last top 10 coldest June into July period. 

Technically, it was 2023, if we go strictly by JJA. However, September was warmer than June in 2023, so JAS 2023 would have taken us above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

[so_whats_happening]

Last year to this year look at the subsurface.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had a top 10 warmest summer here in the Northeast at many locations. Also top 10 for 90° days during the summer and 70° summer minimums along with record high dewpoints. Several spots also had a top 10 driest summer. 

All-time heat for June with several spots in the 102-105° range which was a first for the month of June. We have seen this theme frequently during the 2020s. Heat peaking earlier in the season and relaxing a bit relative to the early season during August some years like this one.

Familiar new pattern this decade with summer heat in the West and East while cooler in the middle of the nation.  

For the period from 2010 to 2025 the Northeast has experienced 13 out of 16 warmer to record wam summers. Most summers have finished somewhere in the top 10 for warmth over this period.

The last cooler summer relative to earlier periods was in 2014. But we haven’t had a significantly cooler summer relative to the past since 2009. That was our last top 10 coldest June into July period. 
 

 

Detroit tied with 2 other years for 7th most days with mins of 70°+ (24) but tied with 10 other years for 44th most days of 90°+ (14). You can see it was the nights that did the lifting.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

For August in a lot of locations in the NJ/PA/Deleware/Maryland area it was pretty cool and some places top 5 others top 20. Havent seen pretty much any posts about that from the typical stat heads. Very dry in the area as well.

My friend in Long Island said it was the most comfortable August he could remember. 

Here, the last week of August saw the traditional cold spots of SE MI dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. I dont care that they are the usual cold spots...its very impressive to have that on multiple nights in August. 

This is August 30th:

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My friend in Long Island said it was the most comfortable August he could remember. 

Here, the last week of August saw the traditional cold spots of SE MI dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. I dont care that they are the usual cold spots...its very impressive to have that on multiple nights in August. 

This is August 30th:

New York City had its coolest August since 2000.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/28/2025 at 7:49 AM, bluewave said:

Departures keep changing every 10 years so they are a subjective measure in a warming climate. Rankings are fixed based on the actual comparisons to past events making them an objective measure.

In the old days the departures and rankings were directly related when the temperatures didn’t vary much with each new 10 year update prior to the 1980s. This is the reason that records are based on the actual rankings and not departures.

A daily record high or low at a place like Boston is the actual temperature according to the rank. Since a record low for example will always be the number one ranked coldest temperature on a specific date. The record is not based on the numerical departure.  So it will always be an objective measure.

Now if you are doing simple seasonal outlooks then you will rely on departures for above and below areas on the maps. But this is only one metric for doing these seasonal outlooks. It’s a good starting point as to what you think the forecast will look like. 

Let’s say you were doing a summer outlook for a client in BTV. It would be a good summer outlook if you showed above normal temperatures. But if you wanted to stand out from the rest of the pack, then  you would attempt to let the client know what the sensible weather would be.

Since the 1991-2020 climate normals are the warmest on record, BTV is only currently at +1.8. This would lead the average person who is not familiar with the changing departures to think that the summer would just feel a little warmer than average.

But this is a subjective measure based on the recent climate. BTV is currently ranked 3 warmest summer on record. 5 days reaching 95 was the 4 th highest ever for a summer. The summer had 17 days reaching 90 and was the 4th highest. The 99° in June was 2nd highest for the month.

 

Rankings are also misleading these days too, because of so many recent years being anomalously warm. I suspect the CONUS finishes in 12th place for summertime mean. However, if it does so, it would be warmer than EVERY summer before 2006, except for the dust bowl juggernauts of 1936 & 1934. For those of us who were around in the 1990s, those seemed like insurmountable numbers. Not even scorching summers like 1995 and 1988 could surpass those. And so the 12th place finish really seems to undersell just how hot this summer was. In the 1990s or early 2000s, if someone came out and said this summer the CONUS would be hotter than every year except 1934 & 1936, everybody would recognize that is a VERY hot summer with massive cooling demands, etc. The media would be running constant stories about the heat and ramping up hysteria about climate change and a new dust bowl. That doesn't happen anymore.

With that said, 1936 still holds the #1 slot (now tied with 2021). I think it's only a matter of time before we see a summer (or summers) that far surpass anything previously observed when you look at how many recent summers are in the top 10 nationally. It won't take much more warming to get us to that point.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit tied with 2 other years for 7th most days with mins of 70°+ (24) but tied with 10 other years for 44th most days of 90°+ (14). You can see it was the nights that did the lifting.

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

Nighttime lows holding up temperatures here too. This summer:

June High/Low:  -0.3F / +1.9F
July High/Low: -1.2 F / +3.2 F
August High/Low: -3.6F / +0.9F 

I don't think this is too unusual around here either. Lows are being held up by higher moisture levels.