2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

True, but a very impressive heat wave is ongoing now.  Phoenix has set two record highs already this month, including 116F yesterday, which was just 1F shy of the all-time monthly record. The low of 94F this morning was also one shy of the monthly record high minimum. Today is forecast to reach 117F which would match the August monthly record high.

True, that is some very impressive heat out there now!

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This Summer has been significantly cooler in the Southwest, US. Last year Phoenix was breaking records by >+2F, and the roll forward of those very warm analogs had a +PNA in Dec-Jan.. It was a good indicator. But we don't have that this year. 

Probably some -NAO/PNA early, +NAO/PNA in February with more blocking in March. I'll be looking at the extra tropical Pacific late this month when I return from Africa.

[BlizzardWx]

58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Also a strong Gulf of Alaska High pressure has been there June-July

Analogs

US Temp pattern of analogs

For some reason I can never see your images. It's always just something like "3aa-14.png". Does anybody else have this problem?

I don't comment much, but I always appreciate reading all your comments as well as everyone else's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

For some reason I can never see your images. It's always just something like "3aa-14.png". Does anybody else have this problem?

I don't comment much, but I always appreciate reading all your comments as well as everyone else's. 

Thanks for telling me, I ran out of attachment space on this board, and have been uploading them through imagebb. Maybe another image upload site will work for you? Tell me if this works. 

Also a strong Gulf of Alaska High pressure has been there June-July

Analogs

US Temp pattern of analogs

[BlizzardWx]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks for telling me, I ran out of attachment space on this board, and have been uploading them through imagebb. Maybe another image upload site will work for you? Tell me if this works. 

Also a strong Gulf of Alaska High pressure has been there June-July

Analogs

US Temp pattern of analogs

Yeah I can see those. Thanks!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably some -NAO/PNA early, +NAO/PNA in February with more blocking in March. I'll be looking at the extra tropical Pacific late this month when I return from Africa.

Have fun in Africa! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Have fun in Africa! 

Should be great....we are just finishing up an 8 unit housing complex to fuction as an Air b & b. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should be great....we are just finishing up an 8 unit housing complex to fuction as an Air b & b. 

managing a property from oversees?   hmmm

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

managing a property from oversees?   hmmm

Wife is from Uganda and has family there....she is orchestrating the construction and managing it...I've just assisted by procuring the funding.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I hope we get a good blocking pattern in November/December. The pattern that's in place early in a -ENSO/-PDO winter usually sets the tone for that winter. If we don't get a good blocking pattern early, the winter is toast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I hope we get a good blocking pattern in November/December. The pattern that's in place early in a -ENSO/-PDO winter usually sets the tone for that winter. If we don't get a good blocking pattern early, the winter is toast.

2021-2022 ended up okay for most, but more often than not you are right.

[snowman19]

2021-2022 ended up okay for most, but more often than not you are right.

Agree. There are obviously exceptions to every rule but in general he’s correct. -ENSO/-PDO winters that don’t do well in November and December are *usually* abysmal

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

True, that is some very impressive heat out there now!

August has grown hotter and drier in Phoenix. It is also warmer than July was in the past.  That includes extreme heat. August 2020-2025 has had more high temperatures of 115 or above than the entire August 1895-2019 period.

This year’s monsoon season is also off to a dismal start in the Phoenix area.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I hope we get a good blocking pattern in November/December. The pattern that's in place early in a -ENSO/-PDO winter usually sets the tone for that winter. If we don't get a good blocking pattern early, the winter is toast.

Many la ninas have historically had great Decembers (at least here). But results are then mixed as to whether or not it carried thru to the rest of winter.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This Summer has been significantly cooler in the Southwest, US. Last year Phoenix was breaking records by >+2F, and the roll forward of those very warm analogs had a +PNA in Dec-Jan.. It was a good indicator. But we don't have that this year. 

I heard it was the coldest summer in parts of coastal California in over 50 years. Didn't look up any numbers tho

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just hope to god its wetter for the NE or I'll plunge into the Japanese piss-pool.

Looking at the 30 day change, you may be stuck with cool piss if you don't hurry.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I heard it was the coldest summer in parts of coastal California in over 50 years. Didn't look up any numbers tho

Maybe not 50 years.. the 1980s were significantly cooler than now in the West coast warm season.. but some places broke the trend of recent years

[brooklynwx99]

although the PDO is exceedingly negative right now and must be accounted for in winter forecasts, I wouldn't lose tooooo much sleep over it given the anticipated -EPO pattern, especially in Dec/Jan. we could very easily see behavior similar to last year where it ended up closer to neutral as the winter went on... we're likely going to see a bounce upwards with the way SSTs are behaving right now

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Because of shortened wavelengths in the mid Summer, July has a +temp correlation with +PNA from ATL to NYC

The tendency has been more +PNA in July since 2013 with a strong 500 mb ridge in the East. Prior to this recent decade we usually had more of a -PNA when there was a strong ridge in the East. Have also been seeing more ridging in the East during the winters in the 2020s with + PNAs than we used to in the past. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Heatwave coming in France

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tendency has been more +PNA in July since 2013 with a strong 500 mb ridge in the East. Prior to this recent decade we usually had more of a -PNA when there was a strong ridge in the East. Have also been seeing more ridging in the East during the winters in the 2020s with + PNAs than we used to in the past. 

The 73-year average for PNA in July is a +0.2 temp correlation from ATL to NYC in +PNA vs -PNA, all data included. 

[snowman19]

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The PDO- is, in large part, a function of the marine heatwave in the West Pacific. It is not due to cold sea surface temperatures. I'm not sure the quoted individual knows what constitutes a negative or positive PDO, much less that the PDO- does not support whatever climate-related argument he is trying to make.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The PDO- is, in large part, a function of the marine heatwave in the West Pacific. It is not due to cold sea surface temperatures. I'm not sure the quoted individual knows what constitutes a negative or positive PDO, much less that the PDO supports whatever climate-related argument he is trying to make.

Yea, the tweeter is actually a retired certified meteorologist lol Crazy right?

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

although the PDO is exceedingly negative right now and must be accounted for in winter forecasts, I wouldn't lose tooooo much sleep over it given the anticipated -EPO pattern, especially in Dec/Jan. we could very easily see behavior similar to last year where it ended up closer to neutral as the winter went on... we're likely going to see a bounce upwards with the way SSTs are behaving right now

Cosigned. -PDO actually starting to reverse

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Cosigned. -PDO actually starting to reverse

It is trying we need to continue to see the onslaught of tropical/ synoptic activity holding the ridging pattern out there at bay. It more so looks at this point the waters are just being displaced yet again across the region like we saw last year. One noticeable feature has been the warming of waters around the Bering Sea versus the last couple of years where we saw a large cool pool which would thwart any effort into ridging staying in the EPAC.

Still got a long ways to go but good signs none the less. Kind of still liking this idea of a 500mb pattern as we get into winter. It allows some relaxing of the horrible winter pattern we have had over the last at least 5 years across the Mid Atlantic.

[snowman19]

If anything, the -PMM has increased in strength…more support for a possible La Niña event this fall/winter: 

[so_whats_happening]

I still find it very weird that we can use new baselines and the anomalies that are associated with them as facts (especially temps) but yet we use this chart above as fact taking out that baseline increase...

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the tweeter is actually a retired certified meteorologist lol Crazy right?

You would be suprised how many meteorologists are relatively useless on a seasonal level.