2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd say starting with the 16-17 winter. The last real ubiquitous snowstorm was the January 22-23, 2016 event. Even when we had that great 17-18 winter, the storms were capped at 8 inches at PHL and 10 inches at NYC. The only one since the 2016 snowstorm that went over those thresholds in NYC is the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, and even that one didn't do well in coastal areas. (The January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm did well in the coastal areas, not so much west of 95.)

Something happened after the super el nino that's capping the potential for a ubiquitous snowstorm.

The Jan 23, 2016 event game me an inch or two of sand...March 2018 was one of my best months of record with a 31" storm.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd say starting with the 16-17 winter. The last real ubiquitous snowstorm was the January 22-23, 2016 event. Even when we had that great 17-18 winter, the storms were capped at 8 inches at PHL and 10 inches at NYC. The only one since the 2016 snowstorm that went over those thresholds in NYC is the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, and even that one didn't do well in coastal areas. (The January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm did well in the coastal areas, not so much west of 95.)

Something happened after the super el nino that's capping the potential for a ubiquitous snowstorm.

The storm track shift around the NYC Metro area occurred during the 2018-2019 winter. From 2009-2010 to 2017-2018 we had a primary 40/70 benchmark storm track. Then in 2018-2019 it shifted to a Great Lakes cutter and I-95 to I-84 hugger storm track with the occasional suppressed Southern Stream track.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wonder if we'll start to see this typical La Nina Fall pattern as temperatures start to descend into August

ABSOLUTELY LOVE that setup! 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I love Fall, so i usually am not too picky about temps. I'd rather have a dry sunny October. But I still hope for more seasonable temps to enjoy the color show.

Yes this is why I loved last October

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Jan 23, 2016 event game me an inch or two of sand...March 2018 was one of my best months of record with a 31" storm.

Got a nice snowstorm in April 2018 too

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Tampa is weird. They avg 91 days annually of temps 90F+ but just dont hit 100F.

Yes I hate that, if it's going to be hot it might as well hit 100

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I love Fall, so i usually am not too picky about temps. I'd rather have a dry sunny October. But I still hope for more seasonable temps to enjoy the color show.

I love warmer falls with less rain because I save a lot on heating costs.

It doesn't snow here in October, so the cold would be absolutely worthless.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

47 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

ABSOLUTELY LOVE that setup! 

Not much talk about it, but we are well within striking distance of a RECORD-BREAKING hot summer nationally. Should be around +2.4 to 2.5 for June & July. The record for JJA is around +2.6F, set in 1936 & 2021. A hot August could push us over the top. Just incredible stuff. I remember growing up in the 1990s, and those heat records for 1934 & 1936 just seemed completely unattainable. Not even 1988 or 1995 could come close. Then, 2012 happened and it was just like one domino after another falling. By around 2040, I'd reckon every single summer will be hotter than 1936, and a hot summer could be something similar to what @csnavywxhas posited.

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I love warmer falls with less rain because I save a lot on heating costs.

It doesn't snow here in October, so the cold would be absolutely worthless.

 

One thing I really like is that our summers are getting more humid. I really don’t like hot and dry summers, I find them boring. I love waking up at 6am and it’s almost 80 degrees out. I’d much rather have 99 with a dew point of 80 than 105 with a dew point of 60.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

One thing I really like is that our summers are getting more humid. I really don’t like hot and dry summers, I find them boring. I love waking up at 6am and it’s almost 80 degrees out. I’d much rather have 99 with a dew point of 80 than 105 with a dew point of 60.

wait why do you like humidity it sucks....

I'd rather have 102 with a dew point of 45 ha

I love clear blue skies.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not much talk about it, but we are well within striking distance of a RECORD-BREAKING hot summer nationally. Should be around +2.4 to 2.5 for June & July. The record for JJA is around +2.6F, set in 1936 & 2021. A hot August could push us over the top. Just incredible stuff. I remember growing up in the 1990s, and those heat records for 1934 & 1936 just seemed completely unattainable. Not even 1988 or 1995 could come close. Then, 2012 happened and it was just like one domino after another falling. By around 2040, I'd reckon every single summer will be hotter than 1936, and a hot summer could be something similar to what @csnavywxhas posited.

the 90s were incredibly hot, particularly 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999.

I don't subscribe to this fake high min heat, a summer must have a record number of 90 degree 95 degree and 100 degree days to be record hot-- our last summer like that was 2010.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 90s were incredibly hot, particularly 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999.

I don't subscribe to this fake high min heat, a summer must have a record number of 90 degree 95 degree and 100 degree days to be record hot-- our last summer like that was 2010.

 

 

Those were pretty hot years, but not close to recent years in most places in the eastern US. Also, the first three were unequivocally inflated at the first-order sites due to the defective HO-83 thermometer commonly in use during that era.

[LakePaste25]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wait why do you like humidity it sucks....

I'd rather have 102 with a dew point of 45 ha

I love clear blue skies.

During the June heatwave i had clear blue skies with dew points in the 70s. it was like a more mellow Dubai climate. I loved it! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

My ranking of the winters since 2016-17

1. 2017-18: This is probably #1 on most lists. This was the only one that provided the cold and snow. A record warm February kept this from being colder than average.

2. 2020-21: February made this winter. Plus, this winter didn't have a uber warm month.

3. 2024-25: This one didn't have the snow, but it's the only one that had the consistent cold. Again, no uber warm month in this winter.

4. 2018-19: Not much snow in from late November to mid-February, but snow events in mid-November and late February/early March kept the season's snow totals respectable. Plus, like 2020-21 and 2024-25, no uber warm month.

5. 2021-22: Like 2020-21, was a one-month winter (January). However, we had a near record warm December, and winter was pretty much done when January was finished.

6. 2016-17: March kept this winter from being a 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24 type winter. November-February torched with very little snow.

7. 2023-24: Snow events from mid-January to mid-February kept this from being at the very bottom. This winter featured a lot of record warmth, especially in December and March.

8 & 9 (tie). 2019-20 and 2022-23: This is as bad as you can get. There wasn't much of a winter.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Those were pretty hot years, but not close to recent years in most places in the eastern US. Also, the first three were unequivocally inflated at the first-order sites due to the defective HO-83 thermometer commonly in use during that era.

huh, I lived through the 90s I know how hot they were, the heat was unbearable.  Particularly in 1993, it forced me to install air conditioning for the first time in my life.  I didn't even use air conditioning in 1988 (which you cite as the hottest.)  That three day heatwave in early July 1993 was something I had NEVER experienced before.

4 straight days of 100+ at EWR

3 straight days of 100+ at NYC

2 straight days of 100+ at JFK

NYC three straight days of 100, 101, 102 were something I had never seen before, EWR even hit their all time record high of 105 twice in that period.

I don't think they were defective, rather the NYC ASOS being used now is very poorly sited, but even otherwise, that kind of long duration extreme heatwave has not been equaled since.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My ranking of the winters since 2016-17

1. 2017-18: This is probably #1 on most lists. This was the only one that provided the cold and snow. A record warm February kept this from being colder than average.

2. 2020-21: February made this winter. Plus, this winter didn't have a uber warm month.

3. 2024-25: This one didn't have the snow, but it's the only one that had the consistent cold. Again, no uber warm month in this winter.

4. 2018-19: Not much snow in from late November to mid-February, but snow events in mid-November and late February/early March kept the season's snow totals respectable. Plus, like 2020-21 and 2024-25, no uber warm month.

5. 2021-22: Like 2020-21, was a one-month winter (January). However, we had a near record warm December, and winter was pretty much done when January was finished.

6. 2016-17: March kept this winter from being a 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24 type winter. November-February torched with very little snow.

7. 2023-24: Snow events from mid-January to mid-February kept this from being at the very bottom. This winter featured a lot of record warmth, especially in December and March.

8 & 9 (tie). 2019-20 and 2022-23: This is as bad as you can get. There wasn't much of a winter.

what do you rank as your hottest summers of all time? here are mine

 

2010

1983

2002

1993

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

huh, I lived through the 90s I know how hot they were, the heat was unbearable.  Particularly in 1993, it forced me to install air conditioning for the first time in my life.  I didn't even use air conditioning in 1988 (which you cite as the hottest.)  That three day heatwave in early July 1993 was something I had NEVER experienced before.

4 straight days of 100+ at EWR

3 straight days of 100+ at NYC

2 straight days of 100+ at JFK

 

I think it was localized to the urban heat island. Inland areas weren't that hot.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

During the June heatwave i had clear blue skies with dew points in the 70s. it was like a more mellow Dubai climate. I loved it! 

Yes I loved that, back to back 102 highs at JFK and a nice offshore flow.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think it was localized to the urban heat island. Inland areas weren't that hot.

Newark is inland and JFK is on Long Island lol.

You MW guys do not have the same kind of extreme heat we do in the same summers.

1988 was hot but nowhere near that level, we had lots of cooling sea breezes in that summer. Granted 1988 was hotter in EWR, which shows it was an inland summer.

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Newark is inland and JFK is on Long Island lol.

You MW guys do not have the same kind of extreme heat we do in the same summers.

1988 was hot but nowhere on that level, we had lots of cooling sea breezes that summer.

Newark is on a bay. But I'm talking about Syracuse, Albany, Burlington, Vermont, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, not the midwest. Annual maximum has trended up at all of those locations since 1990, as has number of 90+ days (by a significant margin). And that's despite any bias that may have been occasioned by the use of the HO-83 at the beginning of this period. You'll note most sites show a big dropoff in 90F days around 1996 with the installation of ASOS, but have since trended continuously upwards.

Annual Maximum:

90+ Days:

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Newark is on a bay. But I'm talking about Syracuse, Albany, Burlington, Vermont, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, not the midwest. Annual maximum has trended up at all of those locations since 1990, as has number of 90+ days (by a significant margin). And that's despite any bias that may have been occasioned by the use of the HO-83 at the beginning of this period. You'll note most sites show a big dropoff in 90F days around 1996 with the installation of ASOS, but have since trended continuously upwards.

Annual Maximum:

90+ Days:

 

Those places are interior northeast, but we still don't have the same hot summers.  Scranton has been hot in the early 2020s, but we did not get the same kind of heat in those summers.

Interior northeast climate is very different from coastal northeast climate, we're often up to 20 degrees cooler in the summer.

The reason why years like 1983, 1993, 1999, 2002 and 2010 were so hot is because they featured downsloping winds coming from the west or northwest.  Those are our hottest summers.  It's actually much cooler here when the wind comes from the south and even the southwest, those tend to be hotter summers in places like Scranton and Syracuse.

Wind direction is what causes our hottest summers. Not UHI.  A west or northwest wind is a dry downsloping direction which heats up the air while a south or southwest wind does not cause that much heating.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Newark is on a bay. But I'm talking about Syracuse, Albany, Burlington, Vermont, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, not the midwest. Annual maximum has trended up at all of those locations since 1990, as has number of 90+ days (by a significant margin). And that's despite any bias that may have been occasioned by the use of the HO-83 at the beginning of this period. You'll note most sites show a big dropoff in 90F days around 1996 with the installation of ASOS, but have since trended continuously upwards.

Annual Maximum:

90+ Days:

 

Yes I find ASOS very annoying-- why were they installed?  My local temperatures I measure myself corresponded much closer to the official airport readings, but the ASOS installation is not inaccurate-- they are always too cool.

 

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My ranking of the winters since 2016-17

1. 2017-18: This is probably #1 on most lists. This was the only one that provided the cold and snow. A record warm February kept this from being colder than average.

2. 2020-21: February made this winter. Plus, this winter didn't have a uber warm month.

3. 2024-25: This one didn't have the snow, but it's the only one that had the consistent cold. Again, no uber warm month in this winter.

4. 2018-19: Not much snow in from late November to mid-February, but snow events in mid-November and late February/early March kept the season's snow totals respectable. Plus, like 2020-21 and 2024-25, no uber warm month.

5. 2021-22: Like 2020-21, was a one-month winter (January). However, we had a near record warm December, and winter was pretty much done when January was finished.

6. 2016-17: March kept this winter from being a 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24 type winter. November-February torched with very little snow.

7. 2023-24: Snow events from mid-January to mid-February kept this from being at the very bottom. This winter featured a lot of record warmth, especially in December and March.

8 & 9 (tie). 2019-20 and 2022-23: This is as bad as you can get. There wasn't much of a winter.

IMO the only reason we saw a La Niña winter back in 16-17 was the strong -IOD that developed at the end of summer and fall. If it wasn’t for that, it would have been a 2nd year El Niño winter

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the only reason we saw a La Niña winter back in 16-17 was the strong -IOD that developed at the end of summer and fall. If it wasn’t for that, it would have been a 2nd year El Niño winter

Did the strong -IOD break up the +PDO? It's no surprise that winter torched because it was pretty much an anti-log of 2013-14.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My ranking of the winters since 2016-17

1. 2017-18: This is probably #1 on most lists. This was the only one that provided the cold and snow. A record warm February kept this from being colder than average.

2. 2020-21: February made this winter. Plus, this winter didn't have a uber warm month.

3. 2024-25: This one didn't have the snow, but it's the only one that had the consistent cold. Again, no uber warm month in this winter.

4. 2018-19: Not much snow in from late November to mid-February, but snow events in mid-November and late February/early March kept the season's snow totals respectable. Plus, like 2020-21 and 2024-25, no uber warm month.

5. 2021-22: Like 2020-21, was a one-month winter (January). However, we had a near record warm December, and winter was pretty much done when January was finished.

6. 2016-17: March kept this winter from being a 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24 type winter. November-February torched with very little snow.

7. 2023-24: Snow events from mid-January to mid-February kept this from being at the very bottom. This winter featured a lot of record warmth, especially in December and March.

8 & 9 (tie). 2019-20 and 2022-23: This is as bad as you can get. There wasn't much of a winter.

I would go:

2017-2018

2020-2021

2016-2017

2023-2024

2019-2020

2018-2019

2022-2023

2021-2022

2024-2025

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/27/2025 at 12:24 PM, michsnowfreak said:

1931-32 remains the 2nd warmest winter on record (behind 1881-82). It was virtually winter less until a Feb 4th snowstorm. Grass was green with dandelions in January. 1933-34 was a good winter, though snowfall was just barely above avg. Essentially an avg snow season. Feb 1934 saw brutal cold but much like the cold of Feb 1899 it was met with suppression so while areas of the Mid-Atlantic were buried in snow we were cold and dry. 1935-36 was a very cold white winter but snowfall was a bit below avg. Then 1936-37 is the least snowy winter on record. The snowiest winter of the 1930s was the first one (1929-30).

One thing that's interesting about 1881, September was blazing hot in the east, but there was a bunch of snow in the west. Flurries in St. Vincent and Moorhead, Minnesota on the 4th - yes, just 4 days out of August! A swath of 4-6 inches of snow from Iowa to Minnesota on the 16th. Cheyenne, Wyoming even performed the remarkable feat of a 15-minute snow shower from a cloudless sky on the 29th.

It was even so cold in Texas and Oklahoma (then known as Indian Territory) that a ton of cattle died. This is unthinkable in September.

More on that outrageous snow storm from September 16, 1881:

Snow in September? It’s happened before | Schnack's Weather Blog | kwwl.com

Sept16Snow.pdf

 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One thing that's interesting about 1881, September was blazing hot in the east, but there was a bunch of snow in the west. Flurries in St. Vincent and Moorhead, Minnesota on the 4th - yes, just 4 days out of August! A swath of 4-6 inches of snow from Iowa to Minnesota on the 16th. Cheyenne, Wyoming even performed the remarkable feat of a 15-minute snow shower from a cloudless sky on the 29th.

It was even so cold in Texas and Oklahoma (then known as Indian Territory) that a ton of cattle died. This is unthinkable in September.

More on that outrageous snow storm from September 16, 1881:

Snow in September? It’s happened before | Schnack's Weather Blog | kwwl.com

Sept16Snow.pdf

 

Coming on the heels of the infamous "Hard Winter" of 1880-1881, snow in September... folks must have really been battening down the hatches for a brutal winter. Only to have the rugged completely pulled out from under them.

The Long Winter of 1880/81 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 101 Issue 6 (2020)

Hard Winter of 1880–81 - Wikipedia

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Coming on the heels of the infamous "Hard Winter" of 1880-1881, snow in September... folks must have really been battening down the hatches for a brutal winter. Only to have the rugged completely pulled out from under them.

The Long Winter of 1880/81 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 101 Issue 6 (2020)

Hard Winter of 1880–81 - Wikipedia

Per Eric Webb, 1880-1 was a classic cold weak El Niño. 1881-2 was neutral:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I love warmer falls with less rain because I save a lot on heating costs.

It doesn't snow here in October, so the cold would be absolutely worthless.

 

We often get a few flakes in October, but for the most part its the perfect autumn month. Arguably the most popular month of the year for the "general public" in MI.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Newark is inland and JFK is on Long Island lol.

You MW guys do not have the same kind of extreme heat we do in the same summers.

1988 was hot but nowhere near that level, we had lots of cooling sea breezes in that summer. Granted 1988 was hotter in EWR, which shows it was an inland summer.

tcc is not MW. Id consider him northeast (PA). 

But certainly, much like winters, summers can vary from the midwest to northeast in terms of which ones are considered most anomalous. For instance, 1980 was a brutally hot summer for many but wasnt bad here at all. As Lakepaste mentioned, increasing humidity and warmer mins are far more noticeable than max temps. We rarely get very high max temps anymore.