2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I doubt it will hit official, but we'll see...doesn't matter, as we've discussed.

Eps showing a relaxation of the trades at 850 coming soon and Cfs2 agrees.

[snowman19]

from what i've seen, last winter looks like a really good analog for this one. when taking all relevant years into account, there should be a decent amount of poleward AK ridging with some blocking potential early on. however, Feb looks warm and should push the winter's temps AN

Basically agree. I’m not sure we see -EPO to the extent we did last winter, but otherwise yea. I would be absolutely shocked to see the level and persistence of cold we saw from the end of November through the beginning of March this coming cold season….

[snowman19]

Complete agreement...only matters for verification purposes.

I’m also hedging toward cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña. That said, an official weak La Niña (ONI) would not shock me now

[KakashiHatake2000]

which winter the winter from 2024-2025 or from a different time where there was a long polar vortex stretch in 2013-2014 i saw upon looking it up

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How was 2014-15 by you, for us it was a backend winter but February and March were absolutely historic.  2013-14 was very good but I found 2014-15 to be better (2013-14 had many mixed events here while 2014-15 was mostly all snow and colder later in the season.)

 

2014-15 was a classic severe winter, and one that would have gotten a lot more respect had it not followed directly on the heels of 2013-14. Even I rarely talk about it outside of fleeting mentions of the monster storm and record Feb cold, but I should give it more haha.

Nov had a mid month arctic blast with snow for a good week, but then December was zzz city. No meangingful snow and on the mild side. Winter roared back in right after New Years and stayed til mid-late March. Snowfall was frequent in January and the ground covered the entire time, then a Feb 1/2 storm dropped nearly 17" of snow (my biggest) followed by a record cold month. The snow remained deep and fresh with light refreshers but no more big storms. We were in the deep, deep freeze. It was the 2nd February in a row to have wall-to-wall double digit snow depth (prior to 2014, no month had this). Feb was Detroits 2nd coldest on record, just barely behind 1875. On March 3rd a 2-inch snowfall turned to freezing rain and then everything froze solid under another zero wave. For 4 straight days the deep snow had the most shiny, perfect glaze of ice Id ever seen - it was truly incredible. Due to the very light December and March snow the winter finished with a very modest 47.5" - less than half of 2013-14 and only slightly above avg. But the tundra cold and deep snow made the winter so much more severe than the total snow indicated. 

Going back to 1913 (thats as far back as I have continuous snow depth/ snowcover records), the winters with the most days of 10"+ snowcover:

#1) 2013-14: 46 days
#2) 2014-15: 32 days
#3) 1998-99: 17 days
#4) 1981-82: 15 days
#5) 2008-09: 15 days

So the back-to-back winters combined for 78 days with 10"+ snow depth. No winter/winters from the old days came CLOSE to that.
 

Below is a pic after the Feb 2nd storm, and then the glazed snowpack from March 2015.

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh woah thats interesting michsnowfreak i remember one time we lived in a neighborhood i think it snowed and then iced over as well it was impossible to play in when i was a kid kept slipping and had to make holes into the ice in order to walk around in it but it did make excellent sledding in the streets and sidewalk and hills and etc this i think was back in the early mid or late 2000s

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2014-15 was a classic severe winter, and one that would have gotten a lot more respect had it not followed directly on the heels of 2013-14. Even I rarely talk about it outside of fleeting mentions of the monster storm and record Feb cold, but I should give it more haha.

Nov had a mid month arctic blast with snow for a good week, but then December was zzz city. No meangingful snow and on the mild side. Winter roared back in right after New Years and stayed til mid-late March. Snowfall was frequent in January and the ground covered the entire time, then a Feb 1/2 storm dropped nearly 17" of snow (my biggest) followed by a record cold month. The snow remained deep and fresh with light refreshers but no more big storms. We were in the deep, deep freeze. It was the 2nd February in a row to have wall-to-wall double digit snow depth (prior to 2014, no month had this). Feb was Detroits 2nd coldest on record, just barely behind 1875. On March 3rd a 2-inch snowfall turned to freezing rain and then everything froze solid under another zero wave. For 4 straight days the deep snow had the most shiny, perfect glaze of ice Id ever seen - it was truly incredible. Due to the very light December and March snow the winter finished with a very modest 47.5" - less than half of 2013-14 and only slightly above avg. But the tundra cold and deep snow made the winter so much more severe than the total snow indicated. 

Going back to 1913 (thats as far back as I have continuous snow depth/ snowcover records), the winters with the most days of 10"+ snowcover:

#1) 2013-14: 46 days
#2) 2014-15: 32 days
#3) 1998-99: 17 days
#4) 1981-82: 15 days
#5) 2008-09: 15 days

So the back-to-back winters combined for 78 days with 10"+ snow depth. No winter/winters from the old days came CLOSE to that.
 

Below is a pic after the Feb 2nd storm, and then the glazed snowpack from March 2015.

we had a very similar pattern with a slow start to winter with a mild December, then winter kicked in with a 10 inch snowstorm around January 20 (this ended up being a mild bust as the original forecast was for over 2 feet of snow lol) and then really kicked into high gear for all of February and the first three weeks of March with 2 feet of snow in February and close to 20 inches in March and a -10 F departure for February.  We were in the single digits on the last morning of February.  I've never witnessed single degree temperatures in March and I was just one day away from seeing that!

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

oh woah thats interesting michsnowfreak i remember one time we lived in a neighborhood i think it snowed and then iced over as well it was impossible to play in when i was a kid kept slipping and had to make holes into the ice in order to walk around in it but it did make excellent sledding in the streets and sidewalk and hills and etc this i think was back in the early mid or late 2000s

It happens from time to time but the 2015 event was followed by temps around 0F so the bitterly cold, dry crisp air made the glisten far more pronounced then you get after a glaze with a murky overcast and temps around 30F. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had a very similar pattern with a slow start to winter with a mild December, then winter kicked in with a 10 inch snowstorm around January 20 (this ended up being a mild bust as the original forecast was for over 2 feet of snow lol) and then really kicked into high gear for all of February and the first three weeks of March with 2 feet of snow in February and close to 20 inches in March and a -10 F departure for February.  We were in the single digits on the last morning of February.  I've never witnessed single degree temperatures in March and I was just one day away from seeing that!

 

We got down to 0F both in March 2014 & 2015. At Detroit officially, so burbs easily below zero. The coldest March morning at Detroit was -4F in 1978 & 2003.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

from what i've seen, last winter looks like a really good analog for this one. when taking all relevant years into account, there should be a decent amount of poleward AK ridging with some blocking potential early on. however, Feb looks warm and should push the winter's temps AN

Im wondering if we swap December for February.

A characteristic of Nina (or Nina-like atmosphere) here is a cold snowy December and a milder, quieter February. Last winter was the opposite. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It happens from time to time but the 2015 event was followed by temps around 0F so the bitterly cold, dry crisp air made the glisten far more pronounced then you get after a glaze with a murky overcast and temps around 30F. 

did you have snow crystals in clear blue skies in 2015 too? we had that here, it's very rare and I've only seen it a few times in my entire life.

clear blue skies, lots of sunshine and tiny starflakes falling from the skies lol

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We got down to 0F both in March 2014 & 2015. At Detroit officially, so burbs easily below zero. The coldest March morning at Detroit was -4F in 1978 & 2003.

the SST got so cold in February 2015 that in addition to seeing snow crystals in clear blue skies with lots of sunshine, we also had freezing drizzle on onshore flow lol

 

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

did you have snow crystals in clear blue skies in 2015 too? we had that here, it's very rare and I've only seen it a few times in my entire life.

clear blue skies, lots of sunshine and tiny starflakes falling from the skies lol

 

Yes. We've had those several times. Even saw a snowbow.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. We've had those several times. Even saw a snowbow.

I want to see that one day!  The closest I've gotten to seeing that was a moonbow.

[GaWx]

The OHC steep cooling over the last couple of weeks continues:

[KakashiHatake2000]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It happens from time to time but the 2015 event was followed by temps around 0F so the bitterly cold, dry crisp air made the glisten far more pronounced then you get after a glaze with a murky overcast and temps around 30F. 

oh i see interesting thanks michsnowfreak

[so_whats_happening]

Have a feeling we may start to finally relax a bit on this -PDO pattern. Tropical storm and typhoon activity on the rise in the WPAC in fact the one ongoing system Krosa (I believe) looks to attain at least the equivalent of a cat 2-3 going over some of the warmest water anomalies east of Japan before recurving and going extra tropical creating a large wind field for this time of year as it nears the Aleutians. We will have to see if this continues because a one and done will not do the trick.

I do not expect the PDO to completely flatline from this but we are starting to see signs of a shakeup in the continual ridge setup that has been around east of Japan. The cold tongue off Baja and California is also starting to neutral out if not go slightly above average as we go into August.

Forcing also weakening up a bit around the Maritime continent and pushing closer to the dateline more often giving the MJO a 6-7-8 look. You can see the relaxing of +VP over the Atlantic coming up.

Might even have a sneaky little system in the Atlantic to be on the lookout for as we head into August. While the pattern is not conducive right now it is also changing with time so we need to watch for any type of systems that make it to the eastern Caribbean islands in the next week.

[snowman19]

Still sticking with my thoughts that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up with below normal ACE

[PhiEaglesfan712]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Still sticking with my thoughts that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up with below normal ACE
 

Yeah, I like knew in mid-June this was going to be a low ACE season (and it's pretty funny this is happening on the 20th anniversary of the most active season ever). A 2013-type season with just TS/C1 storms is looking more and more likely with each passing day.

[snowman19]

Yeah, I like knew in mid-June this was going to be a low ACE season (and it's pretty funny this is happening on the 20th anniversary of the most active season ever). A 2013-type season with just TS/C1 storms is looking more and more likely with each passing day.

2013 was low ACE for completely different atmospheric/SST reasons but yea this season looks very likely to be below average

[so_whats_happening]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Still sticking with my thoughts that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up with below normal ACE
 

Lol im not sure I understand this idea of his that the Caribbean can not foster a storm until it hits global mean average. Beryl came through early in the season (early July) but the next storm didn't form in the Caribbean (west) until Helene which was in the 3rd week of September. The SSTs were on fire last year but that did not dictate if the Caribbean would produce a storm. If the environment leading into the Caribbean was a little less hostile we would see a storm be able to do just as Beryl did or Helene. Remove the shear currently in place, which seems likely in the coming days, and a decent system tries to roll through it will produce. 

I feel like we heard this last year that ACE could not hit above average too.

Edit: Why does it also have to go through the Caribbean to be an active season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Eps showing a relaxation of the trades at 850 coming soon and Cfs2 agrees.

Yea, I mentioned that in my update last weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Still sticking with my thoughts that this Atlantic hurricane season ends up with below normal ACE
 

My guts says you are right, but it will still be pretty destructive....I think there will be some heavy hitting home brews.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

from what i've seen, last winter looks like a really good analog for this one. when taking all relevant years into account, there should be a decent amount of poleward AK ridging with some blocking potential early on. however, Feb looks warm and should push the winter's temps AN

I think March will be more favorable than last year...I also think the cool ENSO event will be more east-based...last year was a Modoki.

But that end of season PV disruption should be earlier than it was last year, more along the lines of 2023 and 2018.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think March will be more favorable than last year...I also think the cool ENSO event will be more east-based...last year was a Modoki.

But that end of season PV disruption should be earlier than it was last year, more along the lines of 2023 and 2018.

The bar on March has been set pretty low this decade. This is the first decade so far with under 1” average from Philly to Boston. Elevation has been the key as the coastal plain has been too warm.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	0.0	0.0
2023	T	T
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	0.0	0.0
2020	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.5	0.5
2025	T	T
2024	T	T
2023	0.9	0.9
2022	2.1	2.1
2021	0.1	0.1
2020	T	T

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bar on March has been set pretty low this decade. This is the first decade so far with under 1” average from Philly to Boston. Elevation has been the key as the coastal plain has been too warm.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	0.0	0.0
2023	T	T
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	0.0	0.0
2020	0.0	0.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.5	0.5
2025	T	T
2024	T	T
2023	0.9	0.9
2022	2.1	2.1
2021	0.1	0.1
2020	T	T

 

I'm not saying we will see the snowfall March 2018 did, but I think it will be better than last year. March 2023 with a bit tamer RNA would nail most of SNE.

[bluewave]

The July -PDO will be one of the lowest we have seen as the record marine heatwave near Japan continues.

 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The July -PDO will be one of the lowest we have seen as the record marine heatwave near Japan continues.

 

 Currently, the equivalent NOAA version of the PDO based on recent relationship to WCS is likely not far from -4. The record low monthly NOAA PDO through June of 2025 is ~-3.8.

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The July -PDO will be one of the lowest we have seen as the record marine heatwave near Japan continues.

 

Beginning to wonder if the term 'heat wave' is the right nomenclature for that western Pac thermal anomaly.   

Heat wave implies a beginning, and then an end.  There is no "wave" if whatever is occurring does not ascend and then descend, or vice versa.   This thing?  ascended gradually over the last 10 years and has been transfixed - if perhaps wobbling around .. Perhaps it the waved nature extends over multi-decade.   Then we'd have to get into the philosophy of whether time range disqualifies a wave phenomenon and ugh...

Anyway, it's not behaving like a wave.  In fact, it smacks like a 30 years from now ...the mean will be adjusted up because of it's presence, and the "anomaly" will disappear in the arithmetic means once the moving climate calcs are reapplied.  It's just the new order, in other words. 

Not saying that's the case ... but it's not acting like a "wave" nonetheless. 

As an after thought, it seems as GW's gone up, this thing's emerged almost in lock step with the last 20 years of the GW acceleration.  Gets easier to assume there's a connection there but just supposition for now I guess.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Beginning to wonder if the term 'heat wave' is the right nomenclature for that western Pac thermal anomaly.   

Heat wave implies a beginning, and then an end.  There is no "wave" if whatever is occurring does not ascend and then descend, or vice versa.   This thing?  ascended gradually over the last 10 years and has been transfixed - if perhaps wobbling around .. Perhaps it the waved nature extends over multi-decade.   Then we'd have to get into the philosophy of whether time range disqualifies a wave phenomenon and ugh...

Anyway, it's not behaving like a wave.  In fact, it smacks like a 30 years from now ...the mean will be adjusted up because of it's presence, and the "anomaly" will disappear in the arithmetic means once the moving climate calcs are reapplied.  It's just the new order, in other words. 

Not saying that's the case ... but it's not acting like a "wave" nonetheless. 

As an after thought, it seems as GW's gone up, this thing's emerged almost in lock step with the last 20 years of the GW acceleration.  Gets easier to assume there's a connection there but just supposition for now I guess.

 

Yeah I mean hasn't that "wave" been there for like 6-7 years now? Seems like every winter I see you all mentioning it and I'm always annoyed at it because despite not fully understanding it I know it's been a negative for snow, lol