2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is showing a strong EWB in ENSO region 3.4 to start July. That should induce upwelling and renewed cooling

GFS has been, too.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/26/2025 at 9:29 AM, snowman19 said:

The solar connection to the NAO [mention=882]Gawx[/mention] found is a strong one. One of the other strongest ones I’ve seen besides your index, is a “tripole” in the SSTS appearing in June, corresponding to it reappearing during the winter months along with the associated -NAO. The study found that when June was completely void of a tripole, it corresponded to a predominantly +NAO winter. The Atlantic ACE connection to the NAO that some swear by was way too sketchy to be reliable IMO

what is the cause of the connection though? what is it about the sun that would influence the atlantic ocean so much? and does it influence the pacific as much too?

[snowman19]

GFS has been, too.

Good graphic. All supportive of the current thinking of where we are heading…..which is -ENSO (cold-neutral or weak La Niña)

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place

"The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015."

So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F.

[snowman19]

Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place

"The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015."

So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F.

this is absolutely excellent, I remember when they hit 40C there, that was a landmark day.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July

I love that, sounds like some of our best summers from the 50s that had two two 100+ degree heatwaves like 1953 and the famous one from 1966 that had three separate 100+ degree heatwaves.  More recently, JFK had two 100+ degree heatwaves in 1983.

[GaWx]

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

Booooo....guess we're still in the decadal cycle of the last 9 1/2 years, smh

[Stormchaserchuck1]

PDO actually has a higher and warmer lead time correlation than ENSO for the Winter in much of the eastern US.. starting in about July. SE ridge more amped in PDO composite

July-Oct lead

Aug-Nov lead 

Since 2012, the PDO correlation signal has actually strengthened a little beyond this composite. 

Is it a little surprising that its pattern correlation strength actually matches ENSO?

What we have going on with the PDO now is similar to if it was a -2 La Nina. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

The record ridge over the WPAC driving the steep -PDO decline has resulted in the earliest end to the rainy season that the west of Japan has ever seen. Also part of the pattern which drove the all-time June heat the heat in the East a few days ago. So even with a neutral ENSO it’s creating a very strong La Niña background pattern. Very impressive forcing over the Maritime Continent.

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250627-266163/

Rainy season appears to have ended in various parts of western Japan, it was announced Friday.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the season ended in the southern Kyushu region 18 days earlier than usual and 19 days earlier than last year. In the northern Kyushu region, the season ended 22 days earlier than usual and 20 days earlier than last year.

The Shikoku region saw the season finish 20 days earlier than average and 20 days earlier than last year, and the Chugoku region was 22 days earlier than average and 24 days earlier than last year. In the Kinki region, the season finished 22 days earlier than average and 21 days earlier than last year. With the exception of southern Kyushu, this marks the earliest end of the rainy season in western Japan since records began in 1951.

 

[snowman19]

The record ridge over the WPAC driving the steep -PDO decline has resulted in the earliest end to the rainy season that the west of Japan has ever seen. Also part of the pattern which drove the all-time June heat the heat in the East a few days ago. So even with a neutral ENSO it’s creating a very strong La Niña background pattern. Very impressive forcing over the Maritime Continent.



https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250627-266163/

Rainy season appears to have ended in various parts of western Japan, it was announced Friday.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the season ended in the southern Kyushu region 18 days earlier than usual and 19 days earlier than last year. In the northern Kyushu region, the season ended 22 days earlier than usual and 20 days earlier than last year.

The Shikoku region saw the season finish 20 days earlier than average and 20 days earlier than last year, and the Chugoku region was 22 days earlier than average and 24 days earlier than last year. In the Kinki region, the season finished 22 days earlier than average and 21 days earlier than last year. With the exception of southern Kyushu, this marks the earliest end of the rainy season in western Japan since records began in 1951.

 

I wonder if this winter will be another case of the long wave pattern/forcing resembling a strong La Niña even though ENSO is in a cold-neutral or a weak La Niña state

[CP_WinterStorm]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

Where does this chart come from? I'd like to be able to monitor this myself but can't seem to find it on my own.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, CP_WinterStorm said:

Where does this chart come from? I'd like to be able to monitor this myself but can't seem to find it on my own.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
 

 Click on 2nd thumbnail from top.

[CP_WinterStorm]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
 

 Click on 2nd thumbnail from top.

¡Muchas gracias!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong +NAO driven heat wave for Europe. 595dm making it to Paris, France

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strong +NAO driven heat wave for Europe. 595dm making it to Paris, France

anything near as historic as the 40C London experienced a few years ago?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

anything near as historic as the 40C London experienced a few years ago?

Looks like it maxes out over France.. I bet bluewaves 500mb anomaly record maps show historic ridging there. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like it maxes out over France.. I bet bluewaves 500mb anomaly record maps show historic ridging there. 

I wonder if this is record max heat for Paris?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if this is record max heat for Paris?

I would think so.. maybe someone can has a Twitter thread or something. 42c is 107F. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would think so.. maybe someone can has a Twitter thread or something. 42c is 107F. 

Had that here on June 24, 106.0 and 102.6 the day after. Beat my July 22, 2011 mark at the same location which was 105.6

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if this is record max heat for Paris?

Record is 42.6C/109F on July 25, 2019.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. 

Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend

Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average

That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 

0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. 

Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like it maxes out over France.. I bet bluewaves 500mb anomaly record maps show historic ridging there. 

My guess is that this that the expanding subtropical ridges across the planet from Japan to the Eastern US and Europe as the climate warms are driving these multiple records. Notice how the EA has become so positive over time. So the +NAO could be driven by the expansion of these ridges. Plus the feedback from the record marine heatwaves east of Japan across the Atlantic to the Mediterranean. 
 

 

 

Mika Rantanen‬ ‪@mikarantane.bsky.social‬

· 1d

The Mediterranean is now warmer than it typically was in August during the recent 1982–2015 climate period. And it’s no wonder when you look at the atmospheric circulation: a strong upper-level ridge has parked over the western Mediterranean, allowing the marine heatwave to develop.

 

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[snowman19]

July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. 
Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend

Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average

That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 
0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. 


Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that this that the expanding subtropical ridges across the planet from Japan to the Eastern US and Europe as the climate warms are driving these multiple records. Notice how the EA has become so positive over time. So the +NAO could be driven by the expansion of these ridges. Plus the feedback from the record marine heatwaves east of Japan across the Atlantic to the Mediterranean. 
 

 

 

 

Mika Rantanen‬ ‪@mikarantane.bsky.social‬

· 1d

The Mediterranean is now warmer than it typically was in August during the recent 1982–2015 climate period. And it’s no wonder when you look at the atmospheric circulation: a strong upper-level ridge has parked over the western Mediterranean, allowing the marine heatwave to develop.

 

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Don't Meditteranean hurricanes occur when it gets this warm Chris?

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

Now, I'm gonna ask an obvious question here: Do you personally prefer cold/snowy weather or warm weather?

[roardog]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, I'm gonna ask an obvious question here: Do you personally prefer cold/snowy weather or warm weather?

@snowman19can’t stand cold/snowy weenie posts. He’s made it clear that that’s the main reason he posts like he does. What kind of winter he actually prefers may be irrelevant.

 I’m not a fan of weenie posts of ANY kind. Thus I try my best to avoid posting like that. It’s not easy though due to human nature.