2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is showing a strong EWB in ENSO region 3.4 to start July. That should induce upwelling and renewed cooling

GFS has been, too.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/26/2025 at 9:29 AM, snowman19 said:

The solar connection to the NAO [mention=882]Gawx[/mention] found is a strong one. One of the other strongest ones I’ve seen besides your index, is a “tripole” in the SSTS appearing in June, corresponding to it reappearing during the winter months along with the associated -NAO. The study found that when June was completely void of a tripole, it corresponded to a predominantly +NAO winter. The Atlantic ACE connection to the NAO that some swear by was way too sketchy to be reliable IMO

what is the cause of the connection though? what is it about the sun that would influence the atlantic ocean so much? and does it influence the pacific as much too?

[snowman19]

GFS has been, too.

Good graphic. All supportive of the current thinking of where we are heading…..which is -ENSO (cold-neutral or weak La Niña)

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place

"The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015."

So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F.

[snowman19]

Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place

"The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015."

So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F.

this is absolutely excellent, I remember when they hit 40C there, that was a landmark day.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July

I love that, sounds like some of our best summers from the 50s that had two two 100+ degree heatwaves like 1953 and the famous one from 1966 that had three separate 100+ degree heatwaves.  More recently, JFK had two 100+ degree heatwaves in 1983.

[GaWx]

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The PDO continues to plunge:

 The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5!

Booooo....guess we're still in the decadal cycle of the last 9 1/2 years, smh

[Stormchaserchuck1]

PDO actually has a higher and warmer lead time correlation than ENSO for the Winter in much of the eastern US.. starting in about July. SE ridge more amped in PDO composite

July-Oct lead

Aug-Nov lead 

Since 2012, the PDO correlation signal has actually strengthened a little beyond this composite. 

Is it a little surprising that its pattern correlation strength actually matches ENSO?

What we have going on with the PDO now is similar to if it was a -2 La Nina.