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2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kmlwx
Kmlwx

@WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. 

snowfan
snowfan

In Bmore earlier right before the tornado warning was issued.

snowfan
snowfan

The cell running south of Columbia from my part of AA co.     

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AmericanWxFreak

AmericanWxFreak

Posted
Posted

New Day 2 Outlook pretty much unchanged - however, wording suggests the potential for our area to see an upgrade later on and insight into why they arent pulling the trigger yet... 

  

  ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
   Strong heating is expected across a broad, moist warm sector with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians by
   Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to potentially
   strong instability across much of the East Coast. The best chance
   for more organized storms will be from central Virginia northward
   where stronger shear will be present beneath 50 knot mid-level flow.
   A zone of potentially greater severe weather probabilities may be
   present across the Mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability/shear
   are expected to overlap. It appears the cold front will lag well
   behind with the majority of convection developing along a
   pre-frontal trough during the afternoon. Without the stronger
   frontal forcing, some concerns about convective coverage/intensity
   exist, precluding higher probabilities at this time. 

   South of this area, mid-level flow will not be as strong. Therefore,
   more modest shear will limit greater storm organization.
   Nonetheless, modest (25 knot) shear will support some multicell
   storms capable of damaging wind gusts across North Carolina. Even
   weaker shear will be present across the southeast where strong
   instability is expected. Storms are not expected to be as organized
   here, but the strong instability and moist environment could support
   some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts.
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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered.   It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough.   That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH.   Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, high risk said:

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered.   It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough.   That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH.   Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

I could see a late morning upgrade to an ENH risk from I-66 north for a 30% wind. Timing is everything in these parts, if that front lags then it's going to come down to luck on who gets a decent storm. Seems like we flip to real summer after this frontal passage.

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weatherCCB

weatherCCB

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, high risk said:

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered.   It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough.   That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH.   Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

Upgraded to enhanced.   Good call

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Early morning AFD from LWX on the threats... all hazards possible  

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shaping up to be an active afternoon and evening ahead as a potent
cold front and upper level trough swing across the region. The Storm
Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of US-15 to an Enhanced
Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather today. Locations further
west remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5). Regardless of the
severe risk zones, all hazards will be on the table with t-storms
today.

SEVERE THREAT: Storms look to initiate over the mountains
between 16- 19z/12-3pm ahead of the incoming front. Areas
further east will likely see storms develop between 2-4pm/18-20z
with a prefrontal shortwave trough pushing through. Convection
overall will be scattered mainly along and west of I-81 with
conglomeration of supercells and organized line
segments/clusters working east toward the Baltimore/DC metro
areas between 19-23z/3-7pm. Storms will fuel off of high
temperatures in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s with dewpoint
factors in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices will climb
toward 100 degrees in the metros/east of the Blue Ridge as A
result of the increased humidity.

SBCAPE values look to surge into the 1500-2500 j/kg during the peak
heating period with steep low level lapse rates (7+ C/KM). 0-6 km
bulk effective shear values will run between 40-60 kts with 0-1 km
SRH values around 100-200 m2/s2. This will amplify the damaging wind
threat as well as the potential for an isolated tornado or two
across the region. Updraft helicity tracks illustrate the potential
tornado threat especially east of I-95 and down across southern
MD/the northern neck of VA where slight better spin resides
(with a potential bay breeze/outflow interaction).

FLASH FLOOD THREAT: Outside of the severe threat, instances of flash
flooding will remain an issue mainly in the metros/over the terrain.
This is largely due in part to some hypersensitivity given the
recent rainfall yesterday and really over the last week. FFG
guidance for much of the area in the 1, 3, and 6 hr time windows
remains less than 1" with PWATS ahead of the front approaching
2". Rain rates of 1-2"+/hr are possible with storms as they pass
through. The good news is that storms will be progressive given
the amplified shear across the region.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Updated morning AFD says slightly steeper MLLR on 12z KIAD RAOB

  

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
941 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity continue today ahead of a potent cold front that
looks to cross the region. The front will bring a widespread risk of
severe weather to the area later this afternoon and evening with
damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary
concerns. Drier and less humid Friday into Saturday as high pressure
builds into the region. A prolonged period of excessive heat is
expected Sunday into the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of mid morning, satellite and observations revealed a clear
sky east of the Appalachians. Steady heating is taking place,
eroding CINH. Given abundant low-level moisture in place,
moderate to strong instability will build quickly by midday
despite modest mid-level lapse rates (though the 12Z KIAD RAOB
did reveal an area of steeper lapse rates in the 850-700 hPa
layer). Wind observations indicate gusts of 30 to 40 mph over
the higher terrain, indicative of an enhanced wind field.

Shaping up to be an active afternoon and evening ahead as a potent
cold front and upper-level trough swing across the region. The
Storm Prediction Center has maintained areas east of US-15 in
an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather today.
Locations further west remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5).
Regardless of the severe risk zones, all hazards will be on the
table with t-storms today.

SEVERE THREAT: Storms look to initiate over the mountains
between 16-19z/12-3pm ahead of the incoming front. Areas
further east will likely see storms develop between 2-4pm/18-20z
with a prefrontal shortwave trough pushing through. Convection
overall will be scattered mainly along and west of I-81 with
conglomeration of supercells and organized line
segments/clusters working east toward the Baltimore/DC metro
areas between 19-23z/3-7pm. Storms will fuel off of high
temperatures in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s with dewpoint
factors in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices will climb
toward 100 degrees in the metros/east of the Blue Ridge as a
result of the increased humidity.

SBCAPE values look to surge into the 1500-3000 J/kg during the
peak heating period with steepening low-level lapse rates (7+
C/KM). 0-6 km bulk effective shear values will run between 40-50
kts with 0-1 km SRH values around 100 m2/s2. This will amplify
the damaging wind threat as well as the potential for an
isolated tornado or two across the region, though low-level flow
may be somewhat veered to W/SW. Updraft helicity tracks from the
HREF illustrate the potential tornado/rotating updraft threat
especially east of I-95 and down across southern MD/the northern
neck of VA where slight better environmental spin resides (with
a potential bay breeze/outflow interaction).
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