2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

You know we are out of skinny CAPE season when we are seeing echo tops at or above 50kft. 

[caviman2201]

That Northern AACo storm looking kinda spicy... 

[MN Transplant]

This is a miserable trip

[AmericanWxFreak]

New Day 2 Outlook pretty much unchanged - however, wording suggests the potential for our area to see an upgrade later on and insight into why they arent pulling the trigger yet... 

 

  ...New England into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
   Strong heating is expected across a broad, moist warm sector with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians by
   Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to potentially
   strong instability across much of the East Coast. The best chance
   for more organized storms will be from central Virginia northward
   where stronger shear will be present beneath 50 knot mid-level flow.
   A zone of potentially greater severe weather probabilities may be
   present across the Mid-Atlantic where the greatest instability/shear
   are expected to overlap. It appears the cold front will lag well
   behind with the majority of convection developing along a
   pre-frontal trough during the afternoon. Without the stronger
   frontal forcing, some concerns about convective coverage/intensity
   exist, precluding higher probabilities at this time. 

   South of this area, mid-level flow will not be as strong. Therefore,
   more modest shear will limit greater storm organization.
   Nonetheless, modest (25 knot) shear will support some multicell
   storms capable of damaging wind gusts across North Carolina. Even
   weaker shear will be present across the southeast where strong
   instability is expected. Storms are not expected to be as organized
   here, but the strong instability and moist environment could support
   some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. 

[AlexD1990]

13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

That Northern AACo storm looking kinda spicy... 

that rotation has tightened up, you can even see it on BWI terminal radar

[caviman2201]

That really should be TOR warned IMO... 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

That really should be TOR warned IMO... 

Came here to say this, the appendage is notable even on reflectivity 

[AlexD1990]

any posters in the area that can provide ground truth?

[caviman2201]

Wow... 

[Random Chaos]

Definitely feel it should be warned. It’s heading straight for me, should be able to say in 15-20 minutes…

[Interstate]

20 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Definitely feel it should be warned. It’s heading straight for me, should be able to say in 15-20 minutes…

It is now

[Random Chaos]

Just heavy rain, not even strong winds. Lots of lightning though.

[AlexD1990]

Justin Berk posted a video of a funnel cloud near Odenton. Definitely looks like it tried to form one.

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

Justin Berk posted a video of a funnel cloud near Odenton. Definitely looks like it tried to form one.

There's trees and power lines down in Crownsville. Cops had roads blocked due to power crews fixing downed lines. 

[midatlanticweather]

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

There's trees and power lines down in Crownsville. Cops had roads blocked due to power crews fixing downed lines. 

https://twitter.com/JackRuddenWX/status/1935453965287563439?t=9P-lzI_DxAwTKsOFYJdS_w&s=19

 

[high risk]

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered.   It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough.   That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH.   Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, high risk said:

The HRRR clobbers most of the area tomorrow, but the other CAMs are more scattered.   It's consistent with SPC's concern that the cold front will be well to our west at peak heating, so the storms will have to form on the pre-frontal trough.   That scenario can still work well here, but it justifies the hesitation (at least for now) to hold off on upgrading to ENH.   Otherwise, I think it would be an ENH setup, and it still might be.

I could see a late morning upgrade to an ENH risk from I-66 north for a 30% wind. Timing is everything in these parts, if that front lags then it's going to come down to luck on who gets a decent storm. Seems like we flip to real summer after this frontal passage.