Discussion-OBS Weekend Feb 8-9 Another mainly 12 hour snow-ice event possibly changing to rain before ending Sunday. NYC-LI-S of I78 on the edge?

[MJO812]

Fv3

[anthonymm]

Some lucky person in the bronx: 2"

Central park and Laguardia: around 0.7"

JFK: 0.4".

If im super wrong chew me out Sunday night.

 

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro is very late on the precip arrival too but is way too cold aloft so it has snow til like 05-06Z in NYC. I just don’t see that happening. I issued a forecast of 1.5 inches of snow followed by a half inch to an inch of sleet

[psv88]

Man the NAM is a ton of sleet. Barf 

[jm1220]

Just now, psv88 said:

Man the NAM is a ton of sleet. Barf 

Could be worse. On that run the south shore/southern NYC might not have anything left on the ground on Sun after the rain washes it away. Sleet at least has some staying power. Hopefully it's wrong but it was closest to right with the last one. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Man the NAM is a ton of sleet. Barf 

It bombs once in a great while on storms like this.  I recall using it a few winters back and basically going mostly sleet and we got like 5 inches of snow before it flipped over.  Every now and then it’s totally out to lunch on the warm push.   We can hope it’s doing that here 

[jm1220]

FWIW the other hi-res models tonight look snowier/colder than NAM. 

[anthonymm]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is very late on the precip arrival too but is way too cold aloft so it has snow til like 05-06Z in NYC. I just don’t see that happening. I issued a forecast of 1.5 inches of snow followed by a half inch to an inch of sleet

even 1.5" might be bullish.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

even 1.5" might be bullish.

I wouldn’t go that far. You skew negative but that’s not realistic. I think the city sees at least 2”. 

[MJO812]

Rgem is fine

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is fine

That crazy burst it shows S of the city saves it from turning to sleet right away. We'll see if that's correct. 

[allgame830]

26 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

even 1.5" might be bullish.

Your reality is not even shown by the models. Even with the NAM warm nose push given it’s delay the city would put down 2” 

[anthonymm]

overrunning sucks. enough of these stupid warm noses. drop a ridge out west and give us a classic miller A coastal storm already

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Your reality is not even shown by the models. Even with the NAM warm nose push given it’s delay the city would put down 2” 

idk what ur talking about nam 3k conus gives 0.9" verbatim for the city.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

idk what ur talking about nam 3k conus gives 0.9" verbatim for the city.

Your denial is solely based on the NAM and basically ignoring all of the rest of the guidance. 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

overrunning sucks. enough of these stupid warm noses. drop a ridge out west and give us a classic miller A coastal storm already

It needs to be an approaching system from the south.  Overrunning events that come from the SW or W here rarely are big.  2/8/94 was due to flukey mesoscale banding but generally its the southern approachers with a high up over Maine that are the biggest like November 2018.  They tend to be rare though, in the last 30 plus years I can only remember 6-7 events that did that.  

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It needs to be an approaching system from the south.  Overrunning events that come from the SW or W here rarely are big.  2/8/94 was due to flukey mesoscale banding but generally its the southern approachers with a high up over Maine that are the biggest like November 2018.  They tend to be rare though, in the last 30 plus years I can only remember 6-7 events that did that.  

February 2008?

[cleetussnow]

20 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

overrunning sucks. enough of these stupid warm noses. drop a ridge out west and give us a classic miller A coastal storm already

Miller A’s miss a lot.  A lot.  You want a B.

[jm1220]

GFS looks warmer. Sleetfest to rain for I-80 through the city and LI. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

even 1.5" might be bullish.

The reverse psychology thing, it doesn't work for snowfall, just a heads up.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS looks warmer. Sleetfest to rain for I-80 through the city and LI. 

Still a few inches for the area. I think a few inches is possible but we have to watch the radar tomorrow. 

[allgame830]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS looks warmer. Sleetfest to rain for I-80 through the city and LI. 

Yes verbatim for the city and LI but not for areas N. I feel like areas such as Rockland/Northern Westchester are in twilight zone in this forum lol 

[psv88]

1-2” for city and coast was my call for days. Sticking with it. Never go against NAM thermals 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes verbatim for the city and LI but not for areas N. I feel like areas such as Rockland/Northern Westchester are in twilight zone in this forum lol 

Looking good so far in Orange County. Should go over 30 inches for the season with a 6 inch or up.

[greenmtnwx]

For the city and coast this whole week has gone up in smoke. Epic fail.

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

For the city and coast this whole week has gone up in smoke. Epic fail.

Gradient storms.

Guys rooting for this setup…I think they are crazy personally.

Always want the cold air on your side

[winterwarlock]

Gfs ouch

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

For the city and coast this whole week has gone up in smoke. Epic fail.

Ridiculous post since tomorrow's event hasn't started yet and its outcome is unknown.  Could be a sleetfest but could also be significant snow for the City or somewhere in-between.  

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes verbatim for the city and LI but not for areas N. I feel like areas such as Rockland/Northern Westchester are in twilight zone in this forum lol 

Areas N of the city aren't really in doubt and haven't been in 2-3 days. It'll be a significant snow event N of the Tappan Zee, every model shows that. 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Areas N of the city aren't really in doubt and haven't been in 2-3 days. It'll be a significant snow event N of the Tappan Zee, every model shows that. 

Long Island rarely does well in gradient patterns. Great for the ski resorts