GaWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 11 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: 0Z HRRR trending warmer, surface low farther north. Not good. EDIT: still gives us 2" of snow/sleet however, Evap cooling doing its work (I hope). How (not) good is the HRRR 36 hours out? Same for RAP. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's super north North = warmer That being that far north is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 HRRR is a nice run here. Still snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 That low helped moisture transport here I think oddly enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Here's the HRRRRRR at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: That low helped moisture transport here I think oddly enough No doubt. Coming into the SW mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Nam trying to go more neutral than positive at 21. Wow.. pretty significant changes at 26. I would imagine we will see precip adjust a good bit north if this continues. Wonder if this helps to tap the gulf some as well. Phasing is def improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 I think the HRR and the RAP at this range is well outside their wheel house. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 NAM looks like it won't be super dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Much higher heights this run. Think she’s coming north unfortunately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Looks a touch west of the 18z at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I think the HRR and the RAP at this range is well outside their wheel house. TW And I don't the RAP ever has a wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 38 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: 0Z HRRR trending warmer, surface low farther north. Not good. EDIT: still gives us 2" of snow/sleet however, Evap cooling doing its work (I hope). The NAM now basically gives Atlanta nothing at all in the morning. I’m not sure it’s onto something or on it own planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 It's definitely a bit slower than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Sleet again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Mixing is almost to Nashville… I mean I sure hope it’s on acid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Mixing is almost to Nashville… I mean I sure hope it’s on acid Or another planet. wow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Night and day from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Could see this coming earlier on. Big change upstairs. See if it’s onto something or on crack like it tends to be sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Could see this coming earlier on. Big change upstairs. See if it’s onto something or on crack like it tends to be sometimes. The fact it’s been trending this way for several runs tells me it may be onto something. I’ve not seen the NAM fail that severely at 36-42 hours too often. Beyond that is another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Guess who.. that low again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Just now, wncsnow said: Guess who.. that low again! It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z. They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 That's a huge inconsistency from the NAM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Toss it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 At this rate, not even Kentucky is going to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z. They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32 I just can’t fathom this isn’t going to be more juiced than what its showing currently. You get this to go more neutral than positive and it’s going to naturally inject some gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 lol SLP goes west of the Apps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 NAM, 3K and FV3 are all way north. So they look worse when the Euro looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Almost looks like a wave of low pressure develops with that northern stream tugging it north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM, 3K and FV3 are all way north. So they look worse when the Euro looks better. Yup, lots of denial going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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