LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Where in the world are you getting “lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic” from the 2024 season? It was above average on every metric and featured some of the worst hurricane impacts we have ever seen. There were 5 MDR hurricanes and the Gulf was active as well. Sorry, I will not agree with you on this. You have to look at specific periods like the near the peak of the season. The active period was early and late, but tropical activity was nonexistent at the time it was supposed to be busiest. We had a complete shut out of all rainfall here in October. We had the same Saharan Air Layer / dry air intrusion into the tropics, and it's only become even more extreme this year. All the forecasts for a historically busy season completely busted and we ended up with an average season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 hours ago, RaleighNC said: Honest question - increasing SSTs would seem to make an AMO Inactive period more active than it otherwise would be, wouldn't it? It makes plausible sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You have to look at specific periods like the near the peak of the season. The active period was early and late, but tropical activity was nonexistent at the time it was supposed to be busiest. We had a complete shut out of all rainfall here in October. We had the same Saharan Air Layer / dry air intrusion into the tropics, and it's only become even more extreme this year. All the forecasts for a historically busy season completely busted and we ended up with an average season. Hey Liberty, 2024 came in less active than, for example, the initial forecasts from CSU. But the season was still solidly above avg and it was a horrific season for the SE US: 2024 North Atlantic Summary Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) Total Direct Deaths Total U.S. Damagee($million) 18 (+4) 11 (+4) 5 (+2) 161.5 (+32% ) 274 124,125 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Hey Liberty, 2024 came in less active than, for example, the initial forecasts from CSU. But the season was still solidly above avg and it was a horrific season for the SE US: 2024 North Atlantic Summary Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) Total Direct Deaths Total U.S. Damagee($million) 18 (+4) 11 (+4) 5 (+2) 161.5 (+32% ) 274 124,125 The intriguing thing about last year which is being repeated to a more extreme extent this year is the long period of inactivity when you expect things to be very active. It was the tropical equivalent of a book end season, with big activity early and later in the season. Do you have a monthly breakdown of tropical activity from last season, Larry? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, Seminole said: It makes plausible sense. Yes, otherwise we would be going into a 70s/80s type of inactive period right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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