2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NorthHillsWx]

2025 ACE is now within about 10 of average. With the two ongoing storms, albeit with Humberto likely to become non tropical today, we will be within single digits of average. I cannot stress enough how impressive this is given how far behind we were just a couple weeks ago

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2025 ACE is now within about 10 of average. With the two ongoing storms, albeit with Humberto likely to become non tropical today, we will be within single digits of average. I cannot stress enough how impressive this is given how far behind we were just a couple weeks ago

And this general idea of a big ACE comeback has been forecasted for several weeks by the Euro Weeklies. The EW after an upcoming break once Humberto and Imelda dissipate continue to forecast ACE to pick up again as we get to mid and even moreso as we approach late month.

[GaWx]

 Favorable ACE looks to continue through the foreseeable future: (note that favorable phase 2 just produced Humberto and Imelda)

GEFS: going backwards through 2/1/8

 

EPS: going backwards through 2/1/8

[GaWx]

Check this out. It turns out that Humberto and Imelda are the two closest Atlantic hurricanes on record (at 467 miles) other than a highly unreliable two unnamed hurricanes in 1853 (428 miles apart). Next closest of reliable years was Easy and Fox in 1950 (497 miles)!

 

[Roger Smith]

Just like me, they long to be, close to you.

It's a nightmare for European forecasters who are waiting to see what ejects from dying Humberto, model consensus is not that good but something intense could come out and head for Ireland and Scotland Friday-Saturday. Or it could all fizzle out.