LibertyBell Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Where in the world are you getting “lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic” from the 2024 season? It was above average on every metric and featured some of the worst hurricane impacts we have ever seen. There were 5 MDR hurricanes and the Gulf was active as well. Sorry, I will not agree with you on this. You have to look at specific periods like the near the peak of the season. The active period was early and late, but tropical activity was nonexistent at the time it was supposed to be busiest. We had a complete shut out of all rainfall here in October. We had the same Saharan Air Layer / dry air intrusion into the tropics, and it's only become even more extreme this year. All the forecasts for a historically busy season completely busted and we ended up with an average season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 hours ago, RaleighNC said: Honest question - increasing SSTs would seem to make an AMO Inactive period more active than it otherwise would be, wouldn't it? It makes plausible sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You have to look at specific periods like the near the peak of the season. The active period was early and late, but tropical activity was nonexistent at the time it was supposed to be busiest. We had a complete shut out of all rainfall here in October. We had the same Saharan Air Layer / dry air intrusion into the tropics, and it's only become even more extreme this year. All the forecasts for a historically busy season completely busted and we ended up with an average season. Hey Liberty, 2024 came in less active than, for example, the initial forecasts from CSU. But the season was still solidly above avg and it was a horrific season for the SE US: 2024 North Atlantic Summary Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) Total Direct Deaths Total U.S. Damagee($million) 18 (+4) 11 (+4) 5 (+2) 161.5 (+32% ) 274 124,125 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Hey Liberty, 2024 came in less active than, for example, the initial forecasts from CSU. But the season was still solidly above avg and it was a horrific season for the SE US: 2024 North Atlantic Summary Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) Total Direct Deaths Total U.S. Damagee($million) 18 (+4) 11 (+4) 5 (+2) 161.5 (+32% ) 274 124,125 The intriguing thing about last year which is being repeated to a more extreme extent this year is the long period of inactivity when you expect things to be very active. It was the tropical equivalent of a book end season, with big activity early and later in the season. Do you have a monthly breakdown of tropical activity from last season, Larry? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Seminole said: It makes plausible sense. Yes, otherwise we would be going into a 70s/80s type of inactive period right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: The intriguing thing about last year which is being repeated to a more extreme extent this year is the long period of inactivity when you expect things to be very active. It was the tropical equivalent of a book end season, with big activity early and later in the season. Do you have a monthly breakdown of tropical activity from last season, Larry? Thanks! Storm Number Storm Name Typea Datesb (UTC) Max. Winds (kt) Min. Pressure (mb) Accumulated Cyclone Energyc (x104 kt2) Direct Deathsd U.S. Damagee($million) Tropical Cyclone Report Status 1 Alberto TS 19 Jun–20 Jun 45 992 0.8 2 125 Final 2 Beryl MH 28 Jun–09 Jul 145 932 34.5 35 7,200 Final 3 Chris TS 30 Jun–01 Jul 40 1005 0.1 5 0 Final 4 Debby HU 03 Aug–08 Aug 70 979 4.9 12 2,500 Final 5 Ernesto HU 12 Aug–20 Aug 85 967 14.4 3 0 Final 6 Francine HU 09 Sep–12 Sep 90 972 4.8 0 1,300 Final 7 Gordon TS 11 Sep–17 Sep 40 1004 1.3 0 0 Final 8 Eight PTC 15 Sep–17 Sep 50 1004 0.0 Final 9 Helene MH 24 Sep–27 Sep 120 939 7.0 176 78,700 Final 10 Isaac HU 25 Sep–30 Sep 90 963 7.9 0 0 Final 11 Joyce TS 27 Sep–30 Sep 45 1001 1.7 0 0 Final 12 Kirk MH 29 Sep–07 Oct 130 928 23.7 0 0 Final 13 Leslie HU 02 Oct–12 Oct 90 970 16.1 0 0 Final 14 Milton MH 05 Oct–10 Oct 155 895 22.5 15 34,300 Final 15 Nadine TS 19 Oct–20 Oct 50 1002 0.7 7 0 Final 16 Oscar HU 19 Oct–22 Oct 75 984 4.5 8 0 Final 17 Patty TS 01 Nov–04 Nov 55 982 2.3 0 0 Final 18 Rafael MH 04 Nov–10 Nov 105 954 12.3 2 0 Final 19 Sara TS 14 Nov–18 Nov 45 997 2.0 9 0 Final Yep, very active JJ, BN AS, very active ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago oof. This is not a pretty picture for something to develop.Zero convection with that wave that just came off the coast, and has SAL mixed in with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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