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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And it seems like we're going to have a good foliage season....some places already are.  I figured the dry weather would've killed our chances at that

Yeah it's looking decent so far, I think these bright sunny days and seasonal nights have helped out.  Some trees were hit too hard by the dryness though, my Dogwoods were just okay color before they're already dropping crispy leaves.

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah it's looking decent so far, I think these bright sunny days and seasonal nights have helped out.  Some trees were hit too hard by the dryness though, my Dogwoods were just okay color before they're already dropping crispy leaves.

Yeah driving down the parkway it's alot of brown oaks 

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Tomorrow will be another mild day with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Monday will turn cooler and then Tuesday through Thursday will be noticeably cooler days. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A potential warming trend could develop during the following weekend.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal for at least the next 10-14 days. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +5.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.492 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

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23 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

It is what it is.  Last fall it rained almost every single weekend.  Businesses took a big hit.  Making up for it this year, places are packed every weekend.

Packed is an understatement. We avoid the Chester area farms on weekends. Instead took an early ride up to Ochs in Warwick; a bit later in the season than normal but still got some great apples and had a perfect afternoon.

Warwick Winery was a no-go; turned around in a line of traffic. On the way home passed by Heaven Hill Farm in Vernon which looked like a Woodstock event.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Packed is an understatement. We avoid the Chester area farms on weekends. Instead took an early ride up to Ochs in Warwick; a bit later in the season than normal but still got some great apples and had a perfect afternoon.

Warwick Winery was a no-go; turned around in a line of traffic. On the way home passed by Heaven Hill Farm in Vernon which looked like a Woodstock event.

 

 

I went to the beach expecting it to be quiet figuring everyone would be doing fall stuff. Nope. Crowded as well. Actually it wasn't bad but odd to see people in the water in October 

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65 / 45 some clouds (just north of here).  Enough sun matches yesterday upper 70s / near 80, clouds keep areas in the upper 60s / low 70s - rain just north of the NJ/NY border.   Cooler 10/15 - 10/17, warmer beyond there into next weekend.  Dry looks to continue into the lats half of the month, with an overall ridging look into the east and above normal temps.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1954)
NYC: 87 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1995)
JFK: 79 (1995)


Lows;

EWR: 34 (2012)
NYC: 34 (1875)
LGA:  39 (1988)
JFK: 37 (2012)

Historical:

 

1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983: Severe weather in Falls Church, VA, produced 2-3 tornadoes and caused $1 million in damages.

1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)


 

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That high latitude block during all of September really meant business.

Looks like another week without meaningful rainfall.  The chilly incoming air mass will be nice though.

Fall foliage around my area is really starting to peak now.  Nicest color I think I've seen in several years.

 

Screenshot 2024-10-13 at 11.28.33 AM.jpg

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