BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 2 minutes ago, BretWx said: Although, it has the LOW right over us.... I may be mistaken, but I don't believe that's the LOW we're tracking. I believe that is the same surface low that showed up on the 12z NAM yesterday and was chalked up to a reflection of the northern stream wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Finishing up around 2AM: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 minutes ago, BretWx said: It's still juiced though: She's JUICY! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Rooting for the HRRR. A solid 14hrs of snow for most of us. And during the day. REEL IT IN. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Man do I wish I was up there. Looks like I may miss out on 6”+ in the Little Switzerland/Spruce Pine area if the short range models are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Alright y'all. Negativity gone. We're all in. Gonna go BOOM for us. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Thermal Profiles look a bit better than forecasted out west. This could bode well for some of you guys. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Sref mean is close to .9 qpf here now! Has about. 75 for AVL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 GSP all in on the NAM. Also believe the precip minimum in the Aville valley. They could be right. Multiple models not showing a significant precip minimum. That minimum is modeled on more precip events than I care to remember. It has also been incorrect many times and Aville and Buncombe has over performed. We shall see. Let's just start with that 1st flake and go from there. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Sref mean is close to .9 qpf here now! Has about. 75 for AVL increase in the snow mean too! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Did I misread the GSP AFD? They mentioned NO other model except the NAM? And that's the horse their gonna ride. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 GSP all in on the NAM. Also believe the precip minimum in the Aville valley. They could be right. Multiple models not showing a significant precip minimum. That minimum is modeled on more precip events than I care to remember. It has also been incorrect many times and Aville and Buncombe has over performed. We shall see. Let's just start with that 1st flake and go from there. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offAhh the memories!!! Which way will the pendulum swing? Hoping it’s towards the over performing end for you Jason, you’ve paid many a dues!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Yeah GSP dropped my total as well by riding the NAM. Can't say they're wrong, but I am skeptical of it. Not saying I buy the HRRR/GFS with their 6-8 totals down here but I do think the NAM and SREF start mixing way too quick, based on historical experience. Closer to 4 or so with an inch of sleet and maybe a glaze feels more likely to me, as a compromise between the different model camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 11 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Did I misread the GSP AFD? They mentioned NO other model except the NAM? And that's the horse their gonna ride. Yes. Crazy! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Ahh the memories!!! Which way will the pendulum swing? Hoping it’s towards the over performing end for you Jason, you’ve paid many a dues! . We had some good ones together Don. You being here has to be good luck!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Boyer upped totals 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Just now, wncsnow said: Boyer upped totals Depending on how far that nose of warm air travels is going to really effect totals down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 6 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Depending on how far that nose of warm air travels is going to really effect totals down this way. Gotta hope the NAM is way wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Gotta hope the NAM is way wrong if it is even wrong some that will be very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 UNCA weather balloon launches start tomorrow at 9 am https://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe2425.html 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Snow breaking out into Memphis ahead of all guidance scheduled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 minute ago, BretWx said: Snow breaking out into Memphis ahead of all guidance scheduled. Sure is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 18Z GFS even more juiced: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1" plus qpf on the gfs! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 6 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: 1" plus qpf on the gfs! Man, that would likely bring some 10+ amounts in the jackpot zone! Good luck gang! It's been fun tracking the past couple of weeks and if the medium/long range guidance is correct, we'll be doing it again shortly! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Woof! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 18Z GEFS MEAN ticked up: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Looks like NW flow on the TN/NC border will hang around all day Sat? Wonder how much that will add up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 hour ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: Man, that would likely bring some 10+ amounts in the jackpot zone! Good luck gang! It's been fun tracking the past couple of weeks and if the medium/long range guidance is correct, we'll be doing it again shortly! Sure does! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 10, 2025 Share Posted January 10, 2025 Been relatively quiet in here today. How’s the crew feeling? Mostly positive trends today up until a slight decrease in qpf on the 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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