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Friday, June 14, 2024 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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An amplifying shortwave trough with associated cold front at the surface traverse the Northeast Friday. Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70's and 80's with dewpoints climbing into the 60's. This should result in mixed-layer CAPE values ranging anywhere between 1,000-1,500 J/KG by peak heating. While there is potential for a narrow corridor of values in the 1,500-2,000 range, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit how unstable the atmosphere will become. Associated with the approaching shortwave trough will be seasonably strong dynamics characterized by 30-35 knots of bulk shear.

Given the combination of modest instability, adequate deep layer shear, and strong forcing, scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid-day across central New York southwest into Pennsylvania. Given shear will become parallel to the front, convection should grow upscale into a line and then slowly sag southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. While low-level winds aren't overly impressive, the combination of steep lapse rates and unstable low-levels will yield the risk for damaging wind gusts within the strongest cells. Higher 0-3km helicity values may result in the potential for some small hail with any transient supercell structures and storm motion parallel to the front will yield potential for localized flash flooding, particularly in low-lying, flood prone areas. 

Best chance for strong thunderstorms will be across southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, western Mass, and northwest Connecticut.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Models having trouble figuring out the s/w interaction. GFS loses tomorrow aftn stuff and focuses more at night.

A nice light show when I don’t have to be up early the next morning would be grand 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Models having trouble figuring out the s/w interaction. GFS loses tomorrow aftn stuff and focuses more at night.

 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Saw that...interesting. Right now seems to be mesos vs non mesos

Pseudo PRE? :P 

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Had a look at this one just now and agree meh is the order of the day. But that's only to be expected in a New England severe forecast. Agree that southern VT/northwest MA is probably the best place to get organized convection and possibly a supercell but I also think southwest CT could see a decent squall line if things play out right with an organized cold pool. Timing is good, as are LL lapse rates, but that's about it for pros. ML lapse rates will suck as usual and LL winds will be relatively weak as has been pointed out, keeping helicity pretty low. Still, it's a severe day in CT so I'll take it, and you never know what might pop up due to mesoscale interactions, seabreeze boundaries, etc, etc. As usual, I'm fully prepared to be underwhelmed.

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3 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Had a look at this one just now and agree meh is the order of the day. But that's only to be expected in a New England severe forecast. Agree that southern VT/northwest MA is probably the best place to get organized convection and possibly a supercell but I also think southwest CT could see a decent squall line if things play out right with an organized cold pool. Timing is good, as are LL lapse rates, but that's about it for pros. ML lapse rates will suck as usual and LL winds will be relatively weak as has been pointed out, keeping helicity pretty low. Still, it's a severe day in CT so I'll take it, and you never know what might pop up due to mesoscale interactions, seabreeze boundaries, etc, etc. As usual, I'm fully prepared to be underwhelmed.

yeah SW CT may be a decent spot for best chance for stronger storms. southern VT/northwest MA I don't think is as good as it previously looked. 

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southern VT/northwest MA I don't think is as good as it previously looked. 

And that's the problem with SNE severe forecasting, things always keep changing right up until the day of (although there are exceptions). Which is why I seldom dive too deeply into a local severe forecast until the night before the event, and even then things always look different in the morning. 

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