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May 24-26 Severe Threat


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27 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Flash flood warning prompted for 1-2” of rainfall with ongoing very heavy rain currently. Getting absolutely dumped on. 
 

EDIT:almost feels like some training occurring in southern Champaign county, another storm just blew up, with torrential rainfall occurring. What an afternoon to ring in your 35th birthday. 
 

rain gauge has 2.5” already

best weather

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Reality must have set in for the HRRR as the 18-19Z runs have considerably backed off on the intensity/updraft helicity with the simulated cells that redevelop in the 22-00Z timeframe compared to the 15Z-17Z runs. Although, we are just now finally seeing some peeks of sunshine here.

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16 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Roads are becoming impassable throughout rural Champaign. Just had to drive in reverse with hazards on for 1.5 miles. 

IMG_2152-compressed.jpeg

Looks like a river.  Crazy. 

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3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Downstream looks good here at least for some garden variety I hope

I don’t know what the definition of “garden variety” is.  I just want a non-severe storm in the mature stage with real downpours and frequent thunder cracks for once as opposed to decaying scraps and light stratiform.  Michigan is being Michigan though.  

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Awesome layered shelf cloud this morning with the tor warned line.  Looks like a few brief spin-ups occurred just south and southeast. 
We (at LOT) strongly suspect the spin-ups to your south and southeast were gustnadoes on the outflow. A suspicious area of the outflow passed right through Hooppole where one of the supposed tornadoes was reported from. Since it's dried out lately, it's likely that the gustnadoes were kicking up a bunch of dust.


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7 minutes ago, frostfern said:

 Michigan is being Michigan though.  

Yep with these big systems (that track well to the NW) the t-storms split at LM going north and south into ILL,IN and OH.   It is nothing new.  I have learned to ignore the models that think MI is a target in April and May with these big systems.   I know some models still want to re-ignite in MI tonight :yikes: I would not bet on it but we will see.  FYI ... This is meant to be an observation and not a complaint.  I have had some decent storms so far just commenting about the 2 large storm systems that have gone NW into ND / northern MN.

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3 hours ago, Chambana said:

Roads are becoming impassable throughout rural Champaign. Just had to drive in reverse with hazards on for 1.5 miles. 

IMG_2152-compressed.jpeg

Awesome pics.  I love to get events like this!! :thumbsup:

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5 hours ago, Chambana said:

Severe flooding is occurring. This field was just planted.

Uploaded new photo. Torrential rain still occurring. Unbelievable 

 

IMG_2149-compressed.jpeg

 

4 hours ago, Chambana said:

Roads are becoming impassable throughout rural Champaign. Just had to drive in reverse with hazards on for 1.5 miles. 

IMG_2152-compressed.jpeg

I can smell the mildew just from looking at those pics.

Way too much rain for my liking...

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2.46" with round 1 this late afternoon. Fairly lock-step with the radar estimates out of KIND. Will round 2 make it here or will it get trashed with the loss of daytime heating? For those Michiganders that like the thunder and lightning, round 1 had some doozies here. Rattled the house quite a number of time and heard one snap before the boom, so one was even extremely close.

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2 hours ago, Lightning said:

Yep with these big systems (that track well to the NW) the t-storms split at LM going north and south into ILL,IN and OH.   It is nothing new.  I have learned to ignore the models that think MI is a target in April and May with these big systems.   I know some models still want to re-ignite in MI tonight :yikes: I would not bet on it but we will see.  FYI ... This is meant to be an observation and not a complaint.  I have had some decent storms so far just commenting about the 2 large storm systems that have gone NW into ND / northern MN.

If the system on Sunday is far enough east I might chase.  The problem is storms often don't get into Indiana until after dark.  East central Illinois is easier to get to than northwest Illinois because I can go south around Chicago.

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8 hours ago, frostfern said:

If the system on Sunday is far enough east I might chase.  The problem is storms often don't get into Indiana until after dark.  East central Illinois is easier to get to than northwest Illinois because I can go south around Chicago.

How was the storm this morning in your area? Unfortunately they are dying out as they approach here (not surprised).  

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3 hours ago, Lightning said:

How was the storm this morning in your area? Unfortunately they are dying out as they approach here (not surprised).  

It was a good one, though I was half asleep.  Could have used a little more rain than what I got but the thunder was nice and loud. :thumbsup:

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11 hours ago, frostfern said:

It was a good one, though I was half asleep.  Could have used a little more rain than what I got but the thunder was nice and loud. :thumbsup:

Great to hear.  We really killed it here with a complete 0.1" downpour.  :lol:   Next system looks a bit better but honestly I like the small systems for my area as these bigger ones tend to split particularly for MBY.  Might head out to west side of the state tomorrow afternoon, as I think it will do better.

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Well, my chase today is hosed. Had expected/hoped the OFB would end up closer to/merge with the synoptic warm front extending east from a low near Quincy through the Springfield, IL area and possibly east into west-central IN as per the forecast thinking from about 3 days ago. If I wanted to chase in the jungle, I'd stay in Wisconsin.

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Latest HRRR and the abundance of sunshine in Illinois (despite overcast and steady rain here all morning and early afternoon) has me thinking "Not so fast" to my above, despite SPC's lack of even a 2% tornado contour in NE-NC IL/SE WI on the current outlook.

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