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Severe Weather 5-6 through 5-9-24


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7 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Up until this point, there's been nothing to force convective development south of I-40

That said, I would still keep an eye out on the Lawton and Wichita Falls area for more discrete development over the next couple of hours, especially with the actual jet streak moving in.

NWS Norman seems to be on a similar wavelength, because they're now thinking the best timing for severe weather in OKC and southward is between 11pm and 1am.

  The HRRR has been fairly consistent in bringing storms through the OKC Metro during that period;  the question is whether they will be discrete or some sort of QLCS thing.    There are UH tracks in the HRRR output associated with those storms, but they're overall not super impressive.    That suggests that despite the excellent parameter space, the mode may not be favorable for a high-end threat.    It of course bears close watching, however.

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4 minutes ago, Sydney Claridge said:

The storm approaching Barnsdall, if it holds together, is on a track that would take it into (or at least close to) Bartlesville in around 30 minutes. Hopefully that line to the west will catch up to this supercell soon.

Barnsdall is about to take a direct hit from looks to be at least an EF4 tornado with a large to massive diameter. 

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