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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Unless it trends south .. south of ORH won’t see anything significant . And I fully expect to wake up tomorrow to moves north . Of course I hope that’s not the case, but these don’t typically trend south as you get closer in 

It may not trend as far south as everyone in SNE would like, but I don't expect this to march northward.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. 

The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. 

I think significant threat is from around my area and northward on the CP.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. 

The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. 

Agreed.  Basically the climo normal zone for coastal storms with marginal thermals.

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It’s a coarse model that probably isn’t very good… but the JMA’s 12z took 24 hrs to get to this arrangement below, a time span in which everyone remains below  0C  at 850mb the whole way 

image.thumb.png.661ca557e9df43a9e8a39b5c4061fb82.png

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27 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I could see your area cleaning up, I remember the 97 storm I didn't snow blow, I let the April sun melt it and just plowed through it with my 4 wheel drive truck for two days.

Correctamundo. That is exactly my plan. Already took the plow off the yard donkey and she ain't going back on. 

But hopefully tree and utility line damage far and wide for all to enjoy and remember, with no risk of dangerous cold after the storm. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not necessarily...interior valleys are worse than the interior CP....especially north.

@NoCORH4LWhat I mean is that often times in marginal Spring snow storms, the interior valleys struggle more than the coastal plain of interior NE MA....largely due to the fact that there is no element of downslope on the coastal plain during these storms, which can be fatal when thermals are borderline.  Additionally, if there is a cold source north of ME, then it can funnel into this area.

Take a look at some of the snow maps from historic spring storms.....there is often an appendage of somewhat higher amounts arching from the ORH hills into interior ne MA. This is especially relevant here since the primary may be gaining quite bit of latitude prior to the transfer.

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50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@NoCORH4LWhat I mean is that often times in marginal Spring snow storms, the interior valleys struggle more than the coastal plain of interior NE MA....largely due to the fact that there is no element of downslope on the coastal plain during these storms, which can be fatal when thermals are borderline.  Additionally, if there is a cold source north of ME, then it can funnel into this area.

Take a look at some of the snow maps from historic spring storms.....there is often an appendage of somewhat higher amounts arching from the ORH hills into interior ne MA. This is especially relevant here since the primary may be gaining quite bit of latitude prior to the transfer.

Basically comparing the CT Valley with the coastal plain… the northern MA coastal plain historically does better on deep layer east flow than the CT Valley in MA/CT.  Climo wise it favors Essex and Middlesex counties over CEF/BDL/HFD.

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Basically comparing the CT Valley with the coastal plain… the northern MA coastal plain historically does better on deep layer east flow than the CT Valley in MA/CT.  Climo wise it favors Essex and Middlesex counties over CEF/BDL/HFD.

Yep, exactly. My first post wasn't very clear, so I get the initial confusion. 

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2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I could see your area cleaning up, I remember the 97 storm I didn't snow blow, I let the April sun melt it and just plowed through it with my 4 wheel drive truck for two days.

That is the play, 16 inches fell here days ago, and it's all gone.  In N VT, we've had so many mud seasons this year that the roads are fine too.  

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like the AI.

Just check the ens mean.

 

NS will eventually start acting destructively with the set up if it gets too far behind.

 

The one time the AI model is right is to ruin SNE snow chances. All jokes aside, this storm will be a good test case to see how it does vs the other models.

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