April 2024

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s NAO is -2.00, which is the most negative of any day Feb 15th through April 7th for the years 1950-present. The old record for that period was -1.84. Also, there have been record daily -NAOs the last five days:
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

 

Highly amplified pattern with 3 separate 500 mb heights records. In addition to the 500 mb height record  with the -NAO, record 500mb heights and surface high pressure were recorded west of Hawaii. Then the record low pressure for this time of year at 500 mb around Chicago. So it’s no wonder the pattern has been so wet. Looks like we reload again in about a week as the northern and southern streams attempt to phase. 

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A snowstorm is raging in parts of northern New England. Snowfall amounts include:

Bangor: 8.1" (old record: 6.0", 2007)
Burlington: 8.8" (old record: 2.7", 2004)
Concord: 6.7"
Portland: 6.4" (tied record set in 1915)
Worcester: 5.5"

Following the damaging storm that brought sustained winds as high as 49 mph to the New York City area, sunshine returned and the temperature rose into the 50s.

The next few days will feature readings in the 50s. After a cool first week of April, it will likely turn noticeably warmer during the second week of the month.

New York City's Central Park remains on track to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -12.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.161 today.

 

Don, Lee Goldberg showed a list of wind reports and the highest were up around 70 mph-- 68 mph at a few locations!

and up to 4" of rain!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Highly amplified pattern with 3 separate 500 mb heights records. In addition to the 500 mb height record  with the -NAO, record 500mb heights and surface high pressure were recorded west of Hawaii. Then the record low pressure for this time of year at 500 mb around Chicago. So it’s no wonder the pattern has been so wet. Looks like we reload again in about a week as the northern and southern streams attempt to phase. 

 

what happened to our warm April lol

[Allsnow]

@bluewave

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s hard to believe that the last true drought emergency we had in the metro area was over 22 years ago (2002). The drought/wet cycles don’t normally run this long 

that was a wonderful summer

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah the drought I'm refering to in summer 2022 was more of a "flash drought"  bone dry for about 3 months before the wet pattern returned-it was very dry though-lawns was toast and even some leaves on trees died...we had something like a half inch of rain in July which combined with the strong sun really dried things out

that was one of my favorite summers of all time

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

For the Delaware River Basin we haven't had a true drought since 2002. By true drought I mean from a hydrological standpoint. The last drought warning / emergency ended in NOV 2002. The highest weekly drought severity indexes for the NE back to 12/2000 were during the 2002 drought peaking on 3/12/2002 with an index of 228. For a frame of reference the fall 2016 dry period peaked at 161, fall 2020 at 131 & the summer 2023 dry period topped off at 107.

Since 2002 dry periods have been rare & when they happen they don't have a long shelf life.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

wonderful memories of a great summer

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave

At least back in 2011 we knew we were f***ed once that huge Bering Sea vortex showed up a few days after Thanksgiving. It became a semi-permanent feature that winter and the +EPO floodgates were wide open from the end of November right through the beginning of April

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to our warm April lol

If you want to see a warmer forecast actually verify cooler than forecast these days just amp up the moisture, clouds, and onshore flow. That was the only reason that the heat was muted so much last summer. We generally need very moist patterns these days in order to avoid record heat. 

EPS April 8-15

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[SnoSki14]

All this rain with an extremely active hurricane season on the horizon...buckle up

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a wonderful summer

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

[nycwinter]

look forward to another possible soaker late next week....

[nycwinter]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

unlikely with the ocean nearby

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

I don't take "droughts" in our part of the country very seriously, because we get way above normal rainfall every year.  And 70 percent of the planet is covered by water.

 

[JetsPens87]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

Not at all 

[JetsPens87]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

With a W or SW wind (the highest probability of major heat) how is the ocean to our E affecting that airmass?

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

With a W or SW wind (the highest probability of major heat) how is the ocean to our E affecting that airmass?

For NYC proper, they are close enough to the ocean for Seabreeze cooling effects.  When land heats up, it rises. The "missing" air at the surface has to be replaced.  If you are close enough to the ocean, cooler air along the surface will rush in.  Morristown NJ may be far enough west not to be affected by an afternoon sea breeze.

[Dan76]

SW wind is off the ocean for Staten island east.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

For NYC proper, they are close enough to the ocean for Seabreeze cooling effects.  When land heats up, it rises. The "missing" air at the surface has to be replaced.  If you are close enough to the ocean, cooler air along the surface will rush in.  Morristown NJ may be far enough west not to be affected by an afternoon sea breeze.

With a W/NW down sloping wind the coast is warmer than inland. Happens all the time…with a decent westerly the sea breeze isn’t a factor…in these setups JFK and LI go 100+.
 

i believe one of the barrier islands hit 108 on an offshore flow about 15 years ago. @bluewavecan confirm 

[Dan76]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

With a W/NW down sloping wind the coast is warmer than inland. Happens all the time…with a decent westerly the sea breeze isn’t a factor…in these setups JFK and LI go 100+.
 

i believe one of the barrier islands hit 108 on an offshore flow about 15 years ago. @bluewavecan confirm 

 

When was the last time you cracked 100.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

 

When was the last time you cracked 100.

I want to say 2010 or so was when we had that blast of 100+ where Gilgo beach hit 108. Point remains, an offshore flow negates the impact of the ocean. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.30" of rain for the day.

Final storm total 3.34"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wonderful memories of a great summer

You do know you need to see somebody about this heat fetish thing right ?

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, nycwinter said:

look forward to another possible soaker late next week....

I like cool and rainy

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. 
 

Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107

October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0
6	1985	73	0

Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	108	0
2	2009	103	0
3	1994	100	0
4	1991	99	0
-	1981	99	0
-	1960	99	0
5	2020	98	0
-	2007	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1979	98	0
-	1967	98	0

 

 

[JetsPens87]

9 hours ago, Dark Star said:

For NYC proper, they are close enough to the ocean for Seabreeze cooling effects.  When land heats up, it rises. The "missing" air at the surface has to be replaced.  If you are close enough to the ocean, cooler air along the surface will rush in.  Morristown NJ may be far enough west not to be affected by an afternoon sea breeze.

Yea I understand the sea breeze. But that is largely overcome on that heat island in July at peak heat climo. 

It is a non factor once off the boardwalk anywhere else at that point.

[JetsPens87]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Multiple stations hit 108° during a drier pattern in 2010 and 2011 which wasn’t nearly as dry as the spring of 2002 was. So we could easily beat that in this much warmer climate if we got into a summer drought with westerly winds. But since we have become so wet with more onshore flow, it hasn’t happened yet. All it took was a brief flash drought in October 2019 to set all time highs by several degrees for the month. Plus we had our first 80° during winter in 2018. So we have been lucky to an extent during the summer that the big highs have been elongated more east of New England instead of flatter into the Carolina’s or Tennessee Valley. When you look at what happened around the Pacific NW a few summers ago it shows how lucky we have been. 
 

Just add 2-3° to the 2010-2011 maxes and you see potentially what a drought could do here in the summer.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107

October 2019 and February 2018 records were 3-4°warmer than previous records

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0
6	1985	73	0

Seattle surpassed previous summer record by 5° in the much warmer 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	108	0
2	2009	103	0
3	1994	100	0
4	1991	99	0
-	1981	99	0
-	1960	99	0
5	2020	98	0
-	2007	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1979	98	0
-	1967	98	0

 

 

@MJO812 @Dan76

[Allsnow]

@bluewave 2010 was probably the hottest summer I experienced in my lifetime. The heat combined with the humidity made it feel like a tropical island. If we ever get that type heat again all time records would be established. 
 

76 on Tuesday? 

[Brian5671]

Sunnier than expected late yesterday and into today...

[Brian5671]

Anchorage is approaching their record seasonal snow of 134 inches (129 to date) that's another stat that tells you we had a ratter winter....AK always does well when we torch all winter