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17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z Euro shifted south with the snow accumulations in the metro

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

Obviously what the 12z Euro showed wouldn't cut it for the NYC area. A 10:1 map showing barely a half inch would mean zero for this area this time of year. It wouldn't be surprising if areas well to the north get a little though. 

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12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Thanks. I don't crap on every threat. You know this.

It's amazing being ridiculed over 1 run of the CMC though by some here. I'll say that.

I have known you for years from other forums. When a storm is coming you will call it out.

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29 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Thanks. I don't crap on every threat. You know this.

It's amazing being ridiculed over 1 run of the CMC though by some here. I'll say that.

Haha I'm not ridiculing you and obviously I'm just joking. I made that comment bc you and snowman weenie the same posts:lol: I absolutely dont think there will be accumulations in NYC

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17 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Haha I'm not ridiculing you and obviously I'm just joking. I made that comment bc you and snowman weenie the same posts:lol: I absolutely dont think there will be accumulations in NYC

Most of the posts I weenie are Tony's to be fair lol.

But that's just because me and him go back a long ways on various forums.

Tony is a legend.

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I think even most snow lovers in this area don't want to get lucky this time of year. Snow in April would be pretty bad since the growing season has started. Thankfully the CMC is very likely to be wrong with the snow solution for our area. Hopefully CMC is also overdoing it with the really big 3 inch plus rain amounts. Euro gives us half that amount of rain, but even if that's correct it's gonna be a miserable few days. 

To be fair, it's not that bad to get snow this time of year.  A killing freeze is MUCH WORSE.

I'd be curious to see if the stats are the same as the last time I looked, but when I last looked any kind of accumulation here in April happens once every three years.  Once every decade or so we get a decent April snowstorm (4 inches or more.)

 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s seems like every time we expect a big hurricane season it fails…

 

I think we should pump the breaks on some of these predictions 

Just like winter, when we expect a big one we don't get it. When you don't expect it we get it. 

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CMC once again at 0Z shows potential for accumulating snow.....IMO north of I-80 at least a few inches - TIP suggested a thread be created for this event a couple days ago saying it could extend south and west of southern New England

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

gem_asnow_us_18.png

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On 3/29/2024 at 1:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Brooklyn' or Drag      perhaps consider a thread for this for early awareness.

pushing -3 ( perhaps - 4! ) SD anomaly ... trending under Long Island in recent guidance; this is historic/inference quite significant, and here there is enough cold.

Primarily this is an interior CT and points NE emerging threat, but the wholesale manifold of synoptic metrics are not excluding this reaching back SW as a major blue snow player, either.

Super synoptic considerations have shown remarkable continuity ( -NAO over the western limb) with apparent highly coupled trough.  These REX couplets tend to operate within themselves and often disconnected from the telecon tapestry of the surrounding hemisphere where they set up this coherently.

still don't see a thread for this...IMO north of I-80 good chance of a few inches - the coast needs additional model support for the CMC

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0Z UKMET has light accumulating snow as far south as Long Island, similar to its two prior runs. There is a forecasted record strong -NAO for 3/31-early April to take into consideration in trying to determine the chances for a further south storm track.

 So, the CMC, though not the best model, isn’t alone among the more credible models with accumulating snow that far south due to a similarly further south surface low track on the UKMET vs the GFS/ICON. Regardless, the ridiculously heavy snow amounts that far south on the CMC are hard to take seriously at this time. There’s no big Arctic airmass in place like was the case in 1982.

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Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most  people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure.

 

New run

2391974B-DDCB-43FB-8BDF-B084B3CE6FEA.thumb.png.48c19425b080ea0c7b6832b9bd67cdb1.png
 

Old run

 

78BFB515-8616-4451-982B-88485F10C861.thumb.png.30b90741e1569f776077d766b1883335.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most  people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure.

 

New run

2391974B-DDCB-43FB-8BDF-B084B3CE6FEA.thumb.png.48c19425b080ea0c7b6832b9bd67cdb1.png
 

Old run

 

78BFB515-8616-4451-982B-88485F10C861.thumb.png.30b90741e1569f776077d766b1883335.png

 

Nice ridge and blocking and still rain. Story of the past 2 winters.

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