JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: They are both really conservative. Nothing wrong with that . Thanks. I don't crap on every threat. You know this. It's amazing being ridiculed over 1 run of the CMC though by some here. I'll say that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the 12Z Euro shifted south with the snow accumulations in the metro Obviously what the 12z Euro showed wouldn't cut it for the NYC area. A 10:1 map showing barely a half inch would mean zero for this area this time of year. It wouldn't be surprising if areas well to the north get a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Thanks. I don't crap on every threat. You know this. It's amazing being ridiculed over 1 run of the CMC though by some here. I'll say that. I have known you for years from other forums. When a storm is coming you will call it out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, MJO812 said: I have known you for years from other forums. When a storm is coming you will call it out. Absolutely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the 12Z Euro shifted south with the snow accumulations in the metro We need a weaker primary . I think we see all rain but it's very interesting to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We need a weaker primary . I think we see all rain but it's very interesting to track. Reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 29 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Thanks. I don't crap on every threat. You know this. It's amazing being ridiculed over 1 run of the CMC though by some here. I'll say that. Haha I'm not ridiculing you and obviously I'm just joking. I made that comment bc you and snowman weenie the same posts I absolutely dont think there will be accumulations in NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Reasonable Once in a while I am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 17 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Haha I'm not ridiculing you and obviously I'm just joking. I made that comment bc you and snowman weenie the same posts I absolutely dont think there will be accumulations in NYC Most of the posts I weenie are Tony's to be fair lol. But that's just because me and him go back a long ways on various forums. Tony is a legend. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Looks like another 2" of rain on tap. Luckily it's spread out but it won't help. Drier pattern hopefully coming after this wet stretch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like another 2" of rain on tap. Luckily it's spread out but it won't help. Drier pattern hopefully coming after this wet stretch. Next week is going to be wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next week is going to be wet thats going to be the end of the wet pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I think even most snow lovers in this area don't want to get lucky this time of year. Snow in April would be pretty bad since the growing season has started. Thankfully the CMC is very likely to be wrong with the snow solution for our area. Hopefully CMC is also overdoing it with the really big 3 inch plus rain amounts. Euro gives us half that amount of rain, but even if that's correct it's gonna be a miserable few days. To be fair, it's not that bad to get snow this time of year. A killing freeze is MUCH WORSE. I'd be curious to see if the stats are the same as the last time I looked, but when I last looked any kind of accumulation here in April happens once every three years. Once every decade or so we get a decent April snowstorm (4 inches or more.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats going to be the end of the wet pattern Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 This would have been great in the heart of winter with an arctic airmass-you'd be talking a HECS for some. Instead it's maybe some catpaws after 2 inches of rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Would be nice to see this bomb south of us so we maximize rain/winds….i don’t see any evidence of that currently. A low going crazy by the cape will just give us some windy showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 It’s seems like every time we expect a big hurricane season it fails… I think we should pump the breaks on some of these predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s seems like every time we expect a big hurricane season it fails… I think we should pump the breaks on some of these predictions Just like winter, when we expect a big one we don't get it. When you don't expect it we get it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s seems like every time we expect a big hurricane season it fails… I think we should pump the breaks on some of these predictions Agreed but it's hard to deny what's going on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I know the area 50 miles or more north of the city doesn't really exist to most on this forum, but I've heard April snows are fairly common there. Looks like Wednesday night has a shot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 CMC once again at 0Z shows potential for accumulating snow.....IMO north of I-80 at least a few inches - TIP suggested a thread be created for this event a couple days ago saying it could extend south and west of southern New England 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Snow storm, March 31-April 1, 1997 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 On 3/29/2024 at 1:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Brooklyn' or Drag perhaps consider a thread for this for early awareness. pushing -3 ( perhaps - 4! ) SD anomaly ... trending under Long Island in recent guidance; this is historic/inference quite significant, and here there is enough cold. Primarily this is an interior CT and points NE emerging threat, but the wholesale manifold of synoptic metrics are not excluding this reaching back SW as a major blue snow player, either. Super synoptic considerations have shown remarkable continuity ( -NAO over the western limb) with apparent highly coupled trough. These REX couplets tend to operate within themselves and often disconnected from the telecon tapestry of the surrounding hemisphere where they set up this coherently. still don't see a thread for this...IMO north of I-80 good chance of a few inches - the coast needs additional model support for the CMC 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 0Z UKMET has light accumulating snow as far south as Long Island, similar to its two prior runs. There is a forecasted record strong -NAO for 3/31-early April to take into consideration in trying to determine the chances for a further south storm track. So, the CMC, though not the best model, isn’t alone among the more credible models with accumulating snow that far south due to a similarly further south surface low track on the UKMET vs the GFS/ICON. Regardless, the ridiculously heavy snow amounts that far south on the CMC are hard to take seriously at this time. There’s no big Arctic airmass in place like was the case in 1982. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure. New run Old run 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 hours ago, Allsnow said: It’s seems like every time we expect a big hurricane season it fails… I think we should pump the breaks on some of these predictions It'll likely be a big tropical season for the gulf and florida, like these megaseasons usually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Snow storm, March 31-April 1, 1997 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) I suggested this analog a few days ago, this was another north of NYC snow event in a season when we saw very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Models feeling the stronger Southeast ridge now so the 0z guidance came further north. Same northward correction we have been seeing all winter. The good news now is that it’s April and most people would want a warmer solution. So a continuation of the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. Also a trend to deeper primary so the secondary isn’t nearly as strong as in earlier runs. Still a good soaker for the area but with a less intense low pressure. New run Old run Nice ridge and blocking and still rain. Story of the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Basically a cutter with a late developing coastal-would have been rain even in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Happy Easter to all! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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