Jns2183 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 By the looks of radar and meso's, we are not getting a lot more rain down this way until tomorrow AM. In AFD CTP highlights the great difficulty HIRES guidence as been having with the convective evolution of these rain bands. This tracks what I was reading on Twitter yesterday regarding the meso not having a clue with rainfall. So basically I think we are flying blind and have nothing to fall back on but now casting up to maybe 2-3 hours lead time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 54 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: In AFD CTP highlights the great difficulty HIRES guidence as been having with the convective evolution of these rain bands. This tracks what I was reading on Twitter yesterday regarding the meso not having a clue with rainfall. So basically I think we are flying blind and have nothing to fall back on but now casting up to maybe 2-3 hours lead time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The radar is fairly clear back to Western Ohio and Kentucky...in a PA context. The area in WV still headed mainly south of us as of now. Not doubt there will be showers and blobs of rain that pass or form, but I am not seeing any concentrated several hour strat rains the rest of the day/during daylight. That 2-3 MORE inches of rain headline does not seem overly likely here. The main roads are dry down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The radar is fairly clear back to Western Ohio and Kentucky...in a PA context. The area in WV still headed mainly south of us as of now. Not doubt there will be showers and blobs of rain that pass or form, but I am not seeing any concentrated several hour strat rains the rest of the day. That 2-3 MORE inches of rain headline does not seem overly likely here. The main roads are dry down this way. Unlike last summer, I keep getting hit by those convective isolated showers. But radar is finally looking to dry out shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 MU still hyping snow and graupel on Thursday - "funny things happen under upper level lows..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU still hyping snow and graupel on Thursday - "funny things happen under upper level lows..." Some people may get more precip Thursday than they do today. Those pop up showers mean business and could drop 1/2 to 1" if you catch several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU still hyping snow and graupel on Thursday - "funny things happen under upper level lows..." That is a fact. We've had a couple of graupel events here in parts of the metro Phoenix area from upper level lows this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some people may get more precip Thursday than they do today. Those pop up showers mean business and could drop 1/2 to 1" if you catch several. Thursday is definitely a wild card - CTP says less than a tenth of an inch. I tend to agree with your assessment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 As we round out the first quarter of 2024, I thought it might be a good time for a review of temperatures. Through the first quarter of 2024, it's been quite toasty in central Pennsylvania. Williamsport: Third warmest start to the year [of 130 years], behind 2012 & 2023. Harrisburg / Middletown: Sixth warmest start to the year [of 136 years], behind 2020, 2023, 1998, 2012 & 1990. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: As we round out the first quarter of 2024, I thought it might be a good time for a review of temperatures. Through the first quarter of 2024, it's been quite toasty in central Pennsylvania. Williamsport: Third warmest start to the year [of 130 years], behind 2012 & 2023. Harrisburg / Middletown: Sixth warmest start to the year [of 136 years], behind 2020, 2023, 1998, 2012 & 1990. You probably shouldn't think so much. Just enjoy the BN temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You probably shouldn't think so much. Just enjoy the BN temps 10 of the last 16 days counting today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You probably shouldn't think so much. Just enjoy the BN temps today. Below normal? I wish. Not so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 38 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Below normal? I wish. Not so here. It is in almost the entirety of the thread that you posted in, but you knew that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Looks like the severe outbreak out west is turning into a bust. I feel like they've had quite a few busts lately on the severe events. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Even the grass is mostly dry here now. Has not rained outside a few drops and drizzle since early morning. The HRRR minors out the precip in SW PA right now such that it is just light over the LSV....next decent rain for the LSV not until 2-3AM and not until after rush hour down here tomorrow. Today played out quite a bit differently than I expected as of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I’m at 1.9” rain since midnight. 2.8” the last 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Assuming the 5 min readings are right, here are the NWS totals so far today. This is from midnight to now: THV-1.19" LNS-1.16" MDT-1.15" CXY-.99" HGR-.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Wait I screwed up math. 1.3” today, 2.5” last 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 I was a little disappointed to not see the Dubois numbers posted earlier today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1.20 of rain so far today in Marysville. 2.15 total since Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Up to 2.10" since Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 1.20 rain today. .54 yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1.46"/2.49" today and 2 day total. 2.71" since Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 HRRR has LSV 1-2" overnight/tomorrow in 3 different waves of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Approaching 2.0” for the day (1.98”) and 2.71” for the event. I’m legitimately concerned for flooding in the local tributaries around here given the new headwater guidance this evening and the amount of rain forecast to fall yet thru tomorrow. There were already some issues today and the Little Juniata had already edged above flood stage early this evening for a bit. The Frankstown Branch is highly likely to get to major, and the Little Juniata has a shot at major too, but certainly a moderate range crest looks increasingly likely. Both branches with that kind of response would likely mean issues on the main Juniata thru Huntingdon and Lewistown. Here’s the updated overall FFG for 6hrs in the MARFC coverage area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2.3” was the daily total at midnight. Already 0.67” since midnight. Flooding issues of the small stream and poor drainage variety are occurring again. Another significant wave of rain on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2-day total of 2.97” here. Gonna be an over-performer. Low of 43 and high of 48 yesterday. This is one of those events where even when the radar is empty it adds up. The drizzle has weight to it ha. #easterlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 .81 so far today. 2.65 for the week...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2-day total of 2.97” here. Gonna be an over-performer. Low of 43 and high of 48 yesterday. This is one of those events where even when the radar is empty it adds up. The drizzle has weight to it ha. #easterliesJust got into Mount Joy and if we get more heavy rains there will be flooding problems. The Little Chiques is ready to burst its banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 39 this Am. The rain conveniently started up again just after midnight but only .3 more for a 5-day running total of 2.4". Less than 2" for the work week. No flooding over this way. Close Approx. (may be missing .01 or .02 either way) three-day work week running totals for Major NWS Spots. This includes up until 7:30 this AM. AOO: 2.87 LNS: 2.52 MDT: 2.43 CXY: 2.16 HGR: 1.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 .52 since midnight in Marysville. 3.07 for my total since Sunday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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