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2024-2025 La Nina


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34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Isn't it a bit of a decadal cycle, though? By my count we don't hit 10 years of it until 2027 (not that that makes it feel any better, lol)

The 60’s also had the strong -PDO cycle but featured strong -AO/-NAO winters. The difference now IMO is the ridiculously ++AMO and AGW. It’s also possible that the record low arctic sea ice is playing some sort of role. Over the last decade, Judah’s Siberian snowcover buildup (SAI) has been totally useless predicting the NAM/NAO states. Other things like solar cycle, QBO, tropical forcing, ENSO states and volcanism also have roles, but they also had roles in the 60’s…..something obviously changed in a big way

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts?

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2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

It truly feels like this perma -PDO will be just that… permanent 

I have noticed a theme in that a lot of the NYC guys get carried away with this.....my guess is that it's being beaten down by bluewave constantly in that thread. I still feel like the idea of permanency is ridiculous.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The 60’s also had the strong -PDO cycle but featured strong -AO/-NAO winters. The difference now IMO is the ridiculously ++AMO and AGW. It’s also possible that the record low arctic sea ice is playing some sort of role. Over the last decade, Judah’s Siberian snowcover buildup (SAI) has been totally useless predicting the NAM/NAO states. Other things like solar cycle, QBO, tropical forcing, ENSO states and volcanism also have roles, but they also had roles in the 60’s…..something obviously changed in a big way

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts?

Yea, I'm willing to concede that -PDO/-NAO is probably more hostile than it used to be overall because there is inherently less margin for error now than there was 60 years ago. However, I stand by my assertion that we have also had some bad luck over the past few years that has made things look even worse.

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 The recent SOIs probably aren’t that big of a deal except that perhaps one MAY think there’s no imminent big plunge of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies likely. But we’ll see what the projected upcoming E wind does as far as upwelling/cooling as that can easily lead to quick cooling.

 The 30 day SOI is at -5. Not Earth-shatteringly negative by any means but stronger La Niña immediately following El Niño often has a +SOI June preceding them:

 For La Niña since 1876-7 with a dip to -1.0 or lower (using RONI for 1949-50+) immediately following El Nino here was the preceding June SOI:

1886: +4

1889: +18

1924: +7

1942: +7

1970: +9

1973: +10

1983: -3

1988: -4

1998: +8

2007: +5

2010: +1

2016: +4

 AVG: +6

- 7 of 12 June SOI +
- 5 of 12 June SOI neutral (+4 to -4). 
- None -5 or lower
 

 The June SOI MTD has averaged -9.4. However, this will rise substantially by the EOM per models (consistent with upcoming E winds) and full June 2024 SOI may get pretty close to 0 as there are some large +SOIs likely on the way.

 The -9 MTD SOI has been due solely to well above normal Darwin SLP MTD (way up at 1014.1 mb) as its counterpart, Tahiti SLP, has NOT been averaging low (its 1014.0 mb avg is slightly above avg). Based on current progs June 2024 Darwin SLP will drop some to ~1013.5 mb, which compares to longtime avg of ~1012.7 mb. (Tahiti SLP is projected to rise to ~1014.7) Since 1933, these years had a June Darwin SLP of 1013.5+:

1940, 41, 49, 65, 77, 82, 88, 93, 97, 2004, 11, 17, 18, 19

- Looking at 14 years (before 2024) with June Darwin SOI of 1013.5+:

1940-1, 65, 77, 82, 97, 04, 18: El Nino

1993, 2019: neutral

1949, 88, 2011, 17: La Nina

 So, with 4 of these being La Niña, having a June ‘24 Darwin SLP of 1013.5 doesn’t tell me the chances of La Niña are small. To the contrary, 1988 had a Darwin SLP way up at 1013.9 and it still lead to one of the strongest La Niñas on record. And like 2024 it immediately followed a substantial El Niño.

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23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The recent SOIs probably aren’t that big of a deal except that perhaps one MAY think there’s no imminent big plunge of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies likely. But we’ll see what the projected upcoming E wind does as far as upwelling/cooling as that can easily lead to quick cooling.

 The 30 day SOI is at -5. Not Earth-shatteringly negative by any means but stronger La Niña immediately following El Niño often has a +SOI June preceding them:

 For La Niña since 1876-7 with a dip to -1.0 or lower (using RONI for 1949-50+) immediately following El Nino here was the preceding June SOI:

1886: +4

1889: +18

1924: +7

1942: +7

1970: +9

1973: +10

1983: -3

1988: -4

1998: +8

2007: +5

2010: +1

2016: +4

 AVG: +6

- 7 of 12 June SOI +
- 5 of 12 June SOI neutral (+4 to -4). 
- None -5 or lower
 

 The June SOI MTD has averaged -9.4. However, this will rise substantially by the EOM per models (consistent with upcoming E winds) and full June 2024 SOI may get pretty close to 0 as there are some large +SOIs likely on the way.

 The -9 MTD SOI has been due solely to well above normal Darwin SLP MTD (way up at 1014.1 mb) as its counterpart, Tahiti SLP, has NOT been averaging low (its 1014.0 mb avg is slightly above avg). Based on current progs June 2024 Darwin SLP will drop some to ~1013.5 mb, which compares to longtime avg of ~1012.7 mb. (Tahiti SLP is projected to rise to ~1014.7) Since 1933, these years had a June Darwin SLP of 1013.5+:

1940, 41, 49, 65, 77, 82, 88, 93, 97, 2004, 11, 17, 18, 19

- Looking at 14 years (before 2024) with June Darwin SOI of 1013.5+:

1940-1, 65, 77, 82, 97, 04, 18: El Nino

1993, 2019: neutral

1949, 88, 2011, 17: La Nina

 So, with 4 of these being La Niña, having a June ‘24 Darwin SLP of 1013.5 doesn’t tell me the chances of La Niña are small. To the contrary, 1988 had a Darwin SLP way up at 1013.9 and it still lead to one of the strongest La Niñas on record. And like 2024 it immediately followed a substantial El Niño.

The SOI can definitely be fickle at times. My guess is when the MJO convection starts firing in the Maritimes, as is being projected, we see the SOI rise, possibly substantially, then you see the big trades/EWB response  

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The SOI can definitely be fickle at times. My guess is when the MJO convection starts firing in the Maritimes, as is being projected, we see the SOI rise, possibly substantially, then you see the big trades/EWB response  

It looks like the continuing record WPAC warm pool and marine heatwave east of Japan are contributing to the very strong recent La Niña 500 mb background state. We just set the new lowest -PNA on record for the month of May. Notice the marine heatwave reintensifying east of Japan. 
 

https://bsky.app/profile/antmasiello.bsky.social/post/3ku6v5pjkvc2a

Anthony Masiello
@antmasiello.bsky.social
The monthly PNA index for May was the lowest in the CPC dataset (since 1950), beating the record from 1964. Notice a lot of the minimums are post-Niño years.
Monthly PNA index for May since 1950, courtesy of the CPC. 2024 saw the lowest value in the dataset.
 
 
IMG_0223.thumb.png.807060382dbe7cfae77138f76aa940ae.png
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58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

FWIW, it looks like the best QBO matches dating back to 1979 as of May are 2020 and 2022. 2010 isn't bad either, but none of these are great solar matches.

QBO rose in May to -6.52 from -23.42 in April. It's looking very likely that this will be a +QBO Winter, making ENSO state a little more sensitive to possible +AO conditions if a stronger La Nina prevails. QBO will probably turn positive in the next few months, and they run in 10+ month cycles. 

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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

QBO rose in May to -6.52 from -23.42 in April. It's looking very likely that this will be a +QBO Winter, making ENSO state a little more sensitive to possible +AO conditions if a stronger La Nina prevails. QBO will probably turn positive in the next few months, and they run in 10+ month cycles. 

Its a no-brainer there will be a +QBO, as were the years I mentioned.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Anthony Masiello

@antmasiello.bsky.social
The monthly PNA index for May was the lowest in the CPC dataset (since 1950), beating the record from 1964. Notice a lot of the minimums are post-Niño years.

Didn't give us our classic SE ridge though

2d.png

I'm a little surprised by the strength of that N. Pacific High pressure.. models never had anything really major in the MR/LR. 

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2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Didn't give us our classic SE ridge though

2d.png

I'm a little surprised by the strength of that N. Pacific High pressure.. models never had anything major in the MR/LR. 

That maybe just a wavelength issue, given its the summer...the relatioinships/teleconnections don't necessarily have the same impact.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That maybe just a wavelength issue, given its the summer...the relatioinships/teleconnections don't necessarily have the same impact.

It actually was a pretty warm pattern though

3a.png

That heat wave in Mexico rolls forward to some pretty warm analogs for the eastern 1/2 of the US through the following Fall/Winter. Usually the warmer than average conditions in the East start in September. 

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4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It actually was a pretty warm pattern though. 

3a.png

That heat wave in Mexico rolls forward to some pretty warm analogs for the eastern 1/2 of the US through the following Fall/Winter. 

Everything is a pretty warm pattern when anomalies are derived from 30 year climo periods lol

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everything is a pretty warm pattern when anomalies are derived from 30 year climo periods lol

The West had several late season snows. I've been surprised by this because it seems like the Hadley Cell has expanded.. they have gotten very anomalous patterns at times, it snowed in Denver on 9-9-2020.  I think it's just a really -PDO time, which is more likely because of a long term La Nina decadal state.  I said before our problems with snow lately is probably 70/30 the RNA vs global warming

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The SOI can definitely be fickle at times. My guess is when the MJO convection starts firing in the Maritimes, as is being projected, we see the SOI rise, possibly substantially, then you see the big trades/EWB response  

Most models have been cutting back on the strength of the Nina as we progress toward winter. The March Euro forecast for the end of June had 3.4 between -.1 and -.2 and 4 around 0. Oisst numbers from today has 3.4 around +.338 and 4 at +.588. I posted the other day how the Cfs2 is barely weak and, coincidentally, has gone from decently AN temps in the east to normal'ish for DJF.

At this point, a Nina is clearly favored, but the trend on the Euro and Cfs2 is clear for the last 3 months. If the trend doesn't  change next week with July's forecasts, weak Nina or La Nada get my vote.

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I took the heatwave in MX in May as the displacement of the Southeast ridge with the -PNA, but I haven't really looked. I've assumed the displacement was tied to the weird placement of the Bermuda High. It's been kind of elongated west this month.

We've had a lot of volatility for June here, with highs not being able to stick. Summer is typically very stable for highs here. The developing La Ninas that have volatility in the Summer tend to retain it into the winter out here.

Still like 2016, 2020, 2022 among the more recent La Ninas. As far as La Nina strength goes the subsurface isn't exactly trending toward anything severe. Still very curious to see what the hurricane season does. A lot of times the hyper-active seasons have already had several major systems by now. But we've not seen that. 

My present assumption is a pretty decent cold 'peak' for SSTs in Nino 3.4 that is somewhat early - October/November. Then a rapid degeneration to neutral conditions in Feb/Mar/Apr. La Nina conditions will be met for something like July or Aug to Jan or Feb. I say this because the subsurface was basically in La Nina in mid-Feb, so Jan/Feb 2025 would make it one year for La Nina conditions.

Screenshot-2024-06-23-4-34-19-PM

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On 6/22/2024 at 10:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, your posts have been really good past couple of years.

Great stuff...thanks. I didn't know that.

Not sure how accurate this is, but stumbled across it

Screenshot_20240620_222539_X.jpg

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3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The West had several late season snows. I've been surprised by this because it seems like the Hadley Cell has expanded.. they have gotten very anomalous patterns at times, it snowed in Denver on 9-9-2020.  I think it's just a really -PDO time, which is more likely because of a long term La Nina decadal state.  I said before our problems with snow lately is probably 70/30 the RNA vs global warming

Agree 100%.

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11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Most models have been cutting back on the strength of the Nina as we progress toward winter. The March Euro forecast for the end of June had 3.4 between -.1 and -.2 and 4 around 0. Oisst numbers from today has 3.4 around +.338 and 4 at +.588. I posted the other day how the Cfs2 is barely weak and, coincidentally, has gone from decently AN temps in the east to normal'ish for DJF.

At this point, a Nina is clearly favored, but the trend on the Euro and Cfs2 is clear for the last 3 months. If the trend doesn't  change next week with July's forecasts, weak Nina or La Nada get my vote.

People are being way too fast to declare this Niña a dud. The EWB has yet to even hit. People made this same mistake last year with the Nino, right around this time, saying a weak or moderate Nino was favored and we all know what happened in the end. Absolutely nothing right now supports La Nada and everything still supports a moderate event despite what the models may show happening

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6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

People are being way too fast to declare this Niña a dud. The EWB has yet to even hit. People made this same mistake last year with the Nino, right around this time, saying a weak or moderate Nino was favored and we all know what happened in the end. Absolutely nothing right now supports La Nada and everything still supports a moderate event despite what the models may show happening

That's why I  said a Niña is clearly favored, but the "everything still supports a moderate event" is just more modeling. So I'm suggesting that the degree of the Niña is far from determined with Euro and Cfs2 trends plus 3-month forecast fails of .5C+.

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13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Didn't give us our classic SE ridge though

2d.png

I'm a little surprised by the strength of that N. Pacific High pressure.. models never had anything really major in the MR/LR. 

The Southeast ridge was suppressed further south than usual into Mexico resulting in the record heat there back in May.

IMG_0224.png.b6d4b261dfead81076294963f243f555.png

 

 

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