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April 8th Eclipse- Last Easy One To See In My Lifetime


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7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m shifting my attention to the Syracuse area. Realizing it’s really not much further than SWNY and the forecast seems slightly brighter there. Here’s hoping.

My plans have changed from Meadville, PA to somewhere in the Syracuse-Watertown corridor.

Rochester also seems to be trending somewhat better as of late.

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14 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Finally!  I can't wait for a good eclipse NAMing!!!

 

15 hours ago, baltosquid said:

psst... get excited... 06z tomorrow, NAM range!

And we got one!  Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS.  You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds.  On the NAM, not so much. 

(edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area)

 

1237687416_NAM84hoursounding.thumb.png.86c512e0f8399e07c24071b8d8e3fb89.png1535906460_GFS84.thumb.png.9447967f567b95f9d45c31bc120f9ec5.png

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3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

 

And we got one!  Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS.  You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds.  On the NAM, not so much. 

(edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area)

 

1237687416_NAM84hoursounding.thumb.png.86c512e0f8399e07c24071b8d8e3fb89.png1535906460_GFS84.thumb.png.9447967f567b95f9d45c31bc120f9ec5.png

This is so much more exciting than tracking snow. 

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3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

 

And we got one!  Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS.  You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds.  On the NAM, not so much. 

(edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area)

 

1237687416_NAM84hoursounding.thumb.png.86c512e0f8399e07c24071b8d8e3fb89.png1535906460_GFS84.thumb.png.9447967f567b95f9d45c31bc120f9ec5.png

I will hear no slander against the NAM today

Edit: #TeamMeso
models-2024040512-f078.cloudcover.us_ne.gif.547348d083b3baf76623f125ad47bf19.gif

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26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY.  Yellow is good, dark is bad.

First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about.  Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds.

 

 

us_model-en_modez_2024040512_79_479_113.thumb.png.70bbcdf15e5deccf8b3183d415433cf8.pngus_model-en_modez_2024040512_79_479_150.thumb.png.56c9875dccdfabc8a06351f2c80baf04.pngus_model-en_modez_2024040512_79_479_151.thumb.png.840aeb9f3d9ef26ff5d62bed2ab11fdd.png

Sorry I have to ask... What does it look like in Cleveland area?

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10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

Choose "All" under Parameter Selection and go down to Clouds.

Select Ohio under Change Map Selection.

Not sure what “sunshine duration (1h)” precisely means, but I like that a LOT more than the cloud cover %. GFS shows 0 mins for TX, but euro is like 30-50 mins for eclipse time. 

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY.  Yellow is good, dark is bad.

First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about.  Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds.

 

 

us_model-en_modez_2024040512_79_479_113.thumb.png.70bbcdf15e5deccf8b3183d415433cf8.pngus_model-en_modez_2024040512_79_479_150.thumb.png.56c9875dccdfabc8a06351f2c80baf04.pngus_model-en_modez_2024040512_79_479_151.thumb.png.840aeb9f3d9ef26ff5d62bed2ab11fdd.png

King Euro, go and get your crown and make this happen… seems like the best I can realistically hope for if fully clear is off the table.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what “sunshine duration (1h)” precisely means, but I like that a LOT more than the cloud cover %. GFS shows 0 mins for TX, but euro is like 30-50 mins for eclipse time. 

The sunshine duration on the Euro seemed optimistic, but I'm good with that.

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There's a whole menu of model options regarding cloud cover that this forum usually ignores or, in my case, didn't even knew existed.

We decided to decamp NE of Syracuse in a state park near Oneida Lake. Might try to go more NW if the traffic isn't bad to get an extra minute of Totality. 

Of course I've got to be in on a meeting Tuesday that I really can't do in a car. I tried dropping the magic words "eclipse" and "daughter" to get out of it, but no go. 

 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’re at the airport heading to TX this morning, so it’s sorta chips fall time. We’ll see what happens. Good luck to everyone going!

Good luck!  My mom and sister are going up to Amherst in W NY (right by Buffalo).  I have to stay here for work stuff :axe:

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51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Looking at the GFS is bad for my mental health 

I’m just going to start focusing on the meso models and the Euro. GFS and GEPS seems to hate NY. 

NWS Buffalo discussion isn’t all terrible. 
 

Ridging slides off to the east Monday as warm frontal boundary
pushes into the region from the southwest. There continues to be
model support of at least a narrow line of weakening showers
that will graze southwestern portion of the area during the
morning hours. The weakening trend is likely to continue into
the afternoon with most if not all of the light shower activity
falling apart as isentropic lift/forcing associated with the
warm front wanes. Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon
eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be
fully known until just a few hours before the event starts.
Confidence remains high that high level cloud cover will be
over nearly the entire area, with an expected band of mid level
cloud traversing at least a portion of western New York. Model
mid and upper level moisture fields during the afternoon do show
a favorable decreasing trend which would suggest the idea that
some of this cloud cover will thin. Temperatures look mild with
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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