Cary Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m shifting my attention to the Syracuse area. Realizing it’s really not much further than SWNY and the forecast seems slightly brighter there. Here’s hoping. My plans have changed from Meadville, PA to somewhere in the Syracuse-Watertown corridor. Rochester also seems to be trending somewhat better as of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 14 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Finally! I can't wait for a good eclipse NAMing!!! 15 hours ago, baltosquid said: psst... get excited... 06z tomorrow, NAM range! And we got one! Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS. You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds. On the NAM, not so much. (edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 1 hour ago, Cary said: My plans have changed from Meadville, PA to somewhere in the Syracuse-Watertown corridor. Rochester also seems to be trending somewhat better as of late. I might head out southwest of Cleveland... it is starting to look better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 3 hours ago, MN Transplant said: And we got one! Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS. You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds. On the NAM, not so much. (edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area) This is so much more exciting than tracking snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 3 hours ago, MN Transplant said: And we got one! Here's the big difference between the NAM and GFS. You can see the saturated layer from 250 to 350mb on the GFS sounding, which is our upper-level clouds. On the NAM, not so much. (edit - for the Watertown/Syracuse area) I will hear no slander against the NAM today Edit: #TeamMeso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 #TeamCanada go RGEM!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: #TeamCanada go RGEM!! I've never rooted harder for Canada haha. Is it the strength of the low or the position that's causing such a drastic difference in cloud cover forecast from the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Don’t know precisely. Apparently the GFS has a cloudy bias, particularly for cirrus. But I’m going to hug it until totality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don’t know precisely. Apparently the GFS has a cloudy bias, particularly for cirrus. But I’m going to hug it until totality. The GFS has most of the country under cloud cover...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Better GFS run for NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Better GFS run for NY. What about Litchfield Ohio. 41.1678N 82.0229W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: What about Litchfield Ohio. 41.1678N 82.0229W Not bad, verbatim. The algorithm says few clouds. Also looks good on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 12z GGEM follows RGEM for central TX with mostly clear skies. Gfs remains fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GGEM follows RGEM for central TX with mostly clear skies. Gfs remains fugly. So it is not only snowfall that models disagree on within 84 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY. Yellow is good, dark is bad. First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about. Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY. Yellow is good, dark is bad. First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about. Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds. So we’re saying forum meetup in Geneva, NY? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY. Yellow is good, dark is bad. First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about. Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds. Sorry I have to ask... What does it look like in Cleveland area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 25 minutes ago, Interstate said: Sorry I have to ask... What does it look like in Cleveland area? https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Choose "All" under Parameter Selection and go down to Clouds. Select Ohio under Change Map Selection. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Choose "All" under Parameter Selection and go down to Clouds. Select Ohio under Change Map Selection. Not sure what “sunshine duration (1h)” precisely means, but I like that a LOT more than the cloud cover %. GFS shows 0 mins for TX, but euro is like 30-50 mins for eclipse time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Ok, here's the 12z Euro for NY. Yellow is good, dark is bad. First up, no low clouds as we've been talking about. Splotchy mid-level clouds, and then an exiting deck of high-level clouds. King Euro, go and get your crown and make this happen… seems like the best I can realistically hope for if fully clear is off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 At the airport and grabbing a beer before the flight. Unfortunately there aren’t any Canadian beers on draft. I can’t bring myself to do the Modelo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure what “sunshine duration (1h)” precisely means, but I like that a LOT more than the cloud cover %. GFS shows 0 mins for TX, but euro is like 30-50 mins for eclipse time. The sunshine duration on the Euro seemed optimistic, but I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The sunshine duration on the Euro seemed optimistic, but I'm good with that. I’m hugging whatever I can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 There's a whole menu of model options regarding cloud cover that this forum usually ignores or, in my case, didn't even knew existed. We decided to decamp NE of Syracuse in a state park near Oneida Lake. Might try to go more NW if the traffic isn't bad to get an extra minute of Totality. Of course I've got to be in on a meeting Tuesday that I really can't do in a car. I tried dropping the magic words "eclipse" and "daughter" to get out of it, but no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Accommodating some not so mobile family members so no last second darts for me, will be just west of Cleveland. Best of luck everyone and stay safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Made it to Saranac NY. About 18” on the ground but it has compressed. Had a great evening building snow forts and having snowball fights. Still snowing lightly…over 60 straight hours of snow. Wild. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 We’re at the airport heading to TX this morning, so it’s sorta chips fall time. We’ll see what happens. Good luck to everyone going! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re at the airport heading to TX this morning, so it’s sorta chips fall time. We’ll see what happens. Good luck to everyone going! Good luck! My mom and sister are going up to Amherst in W NY (right by Buffalo). I have to stay here for work stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 Looking at the GFS is bad for my mental health 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Looking at the GFS is bad for my mental health I’m just going to start focusing on the meso models and the Euro. GFS and GEPS seems to hate NY. NWS Buffalo discussion isn’t all terrible. Ridging slides off to the east Monday as warm frontal boundary pushes into the region from the southwest. There continues to be model support of at least a narrow line of weakening showers that will graze southwestern portion of the area during the morning hours. The weakening trend is likely to continue into the afternoon with most if not all of the light shower activity falling apart as isentropic lift/forcing associated with the warm front wanes. Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts. Confidence remains high that high level cloud cover will be over nearly the entire area, with an expected band of mid level cloud traversing at least a portion of western New York. Model mid and upper level moisture fields during the afternoon do show a favorable decreasing trend which would suggest the idea that some of this cloud cover will thin. Temperatures look mild with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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