Malacka11 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Banking on the NAM for some ~GV around here at sunset. That'd be a great. Also planning to take a trip to Central Indiana tomorrow coincidentally to pick up a salvaged fender to replace the one that I got crushed by a tornado last April. It'd be nice to at least catch some cool clouds on the way back, let alone any noteworthy severe threat to navigate through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Any severe threat up around here for Thursday vanished as quickly as it appeared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Pretty awesome radar signature out in Kansas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Pretty awesome radar signature out in Kansas That video Charles Peek had was incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Any severe threat up around here for Thursday vanished as quickly as it appeared. Yup...NAM tease. The lack of prior support from the globals was always a red flag, although one can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Yup...NAM tease. The lack of prior support from the globals was always a red flag, although one can hope.NAM'med, as they say. If I had the power to get two changes in NCEP modeling done tomorrow, I'd discontinue the NAM and only have 24 hours of publicly available CAM data (and RAP data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 If there were more legitimate instability right now, that line in Indiana would really be making some hay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Quote There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a a tornado or two. Full disco: Per a very stable / consistent signal in the past 4-6 HRRR runs, expect this convective line to continue to move east-northeast and into the ILN forecast area early this afternoon (1-2PM) and then steadily east and out of the area by 5 PM. A concern here is the ambient boundary layer in front of these storms is not moist, with dewpoints in the 40s, which will slowly increase into the mid 50s ahead of the line. This may temper storm intensity somewhat, but on the flip side the inverted-v type soundings seen in the HRRR/NAM in front of this line will augment mixing of stronger convective winds to the surface. Low level shear is adequate, but lacks curvature in the 0-1km layer, and is more impressive on 0-3km layer where SRH is in excess of 250m2/s2. So there will be a potential for line-embedded mesovortices for optimally oriented segments of the line to the low level shear vector, but it is noted that the vector is somewhat line-parallel, which may keep mesovortex formation much more isolated. Something also showing up in numerous CAMS is the potential for a southern tail supercell with strong updraft helicity swath somewhere in vicinity of the Ohio River or just north mid-late afternoon. This seems plausible, and needs to be watched for a larger hail threat or more localized brief tornado threat. The signal has been in most HRRR runs, and many of the other 14.00Z runs. There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a a tornado or two. Unusually bullish from ILN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 SE Indiana tornado warning. Confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Ok then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 That atmosphere is really recovering here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 LSX radar down for maintenance with two tor warned cells in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Tornado Watch up for most of Ohio and Indiana. I don't hate the dynamics at play for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 already got some spinners north of indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 21 minutes ago, DLMKA said: LSX radar down for maintenance with two tor warned cells in the metro. It's back in service as of early afternoon, it's good data now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 This pattern is tiring folks out here in Northern Ohio week after week. It's like every two weeks it's the same thing. First we get beautiful weather, then a cold front ruins it but stresses us all out thinking we're gonna have bad storms. Then they usually aren't half as bad as the local mets think (atleast near Cleveland area), and then it's cold for a week. Rinse and repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Reports of some big hail NW of STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I would have thought there would be a bit more discussion of tornado warnings near STL. Otherwise, one tornado warning south of Fort Wayne right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Tornado has moved east of Festus (for the rest of us) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 tornado warning 2 counties south of Fort Wayne. Most indicators say 2"-3" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 tornado warning 2 counties south of Fort Wayne. Most indicators say 2"-3" hailTornado possible in Findlay. I forgot how bad the radar coverage was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 10 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Tornado possible in Findlay. I forgot how bad the radar coverage was there LEO confirmed tor now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 11 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Tornado possible in Findlay. I forgot how bad the radar coverage was there Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 703 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 OHC063-142315- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240314T2315Z/ Hancock OH- 703 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY... At 703 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Vanlue, or 7 miles east of Findlay, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Hancock County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4105 8342 4099 8342 4099 8346 4095 8346 4095 8348 4093 8348 4096 8357 4106 8358 TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 276DEG 38KT 4101 8349 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 One of my family members had to go to the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I'm shocked there are that potent of storms out west. Here in NEOH Summit County I just went for a walk outside and there was a chill in the air, definitely didn't feel like muggy springtime instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 this was a tornado W of Celina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 east of Celina OH now Quote At 711 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near St. Marys, moving east at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. Auglaize County EMA reported a tornado producing damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXMan42711 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 not ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 This was close to my family member. I will eventually get some sort of update from the locals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 This looks significant around Tiffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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