Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[ariof]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is also shredded

TT is out to 96 for both the GFS and CMC. On the surface …

GFS is a 998 low over BNA
CMC is a 1004 low over PGV

That's only 500 miles.

Both now are grazing ACK, but the GFS at least gives a snowstorm to … someone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll take the GFS right where it is.

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Probably a fronto crush near nyc to the cape 

I like how the h5 low closes off a bit as it moves offshore. A couple days ago it seemed like the thing was sort of shearing out and dampening some. 

[MJO812]

Just now, weathafella said:

I thought with the trof going negative it and confluence moving east it would come further north.  I honestly think this is a Dendrite event.

Dendrite ? No way this is coming way north like that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats dude.

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats dude.

Too early

I learned my lesson 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the GFS right where it is.

Yup. Familiar territory. Easier forecast. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I like how the h5 low closes off a bit as it moves offshore. A couple days ago it seemed like the thing was sort of shearing out and dampening some. 

GGEM still keeping it sheared and ugly. But that seems to be an outlier right now. The rest of guidance is keeping the southern stream separate and potent. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM still keeping it sheared and ugly. But that seems to be an outlier right now. The rest of guidance is keeping the southern stream separate and potent. 

CMC has been so erratic this winter, but it's doing its best GFS impression with more confluence. the GFS has its finger on the pulse for some reason and has support from the 18z EPS

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Familiar territory. Easier forecast. 

I'll probably wake up to see the EPS cirrus shield over me, so famous last words...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Familiar territory. Easier forecast. 

That’s a good spot for us at this lead imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

CMC has been so erratic this winter, but it's doing its best GFS impression with more confluence. the GFS has its finger on the pulse for some reason and has support from the 18z EPS

18Z EPS wasn't anywhere near as suppressed.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dendrite ? No way this is coming way north like that.

Just wait and see.  He’s 60 miles north of BOS.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a good spot for us at this lead imo.

One time wolfie, one time!

[MJO812]

Just now, weathafella said:

Just wait and see.  He’s 60 miles north of BOS.  

I mean it's possible but this is a way different pattern than what we have been experiencing. 

[ORH_wxman]

The confluence up north is def real…the question is whether the southern stream shortwave gets sheared out by “almost phasing” with the northern stream like the GGEM shows. 
 

Most other guidance doesn’t show that but the GGEM has been doing that quite a lot on the past few runs. 

[MJO812]

Icon ensembles are southeast of op

 

 

 

 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One time wolfie, one time!

Please!?!? Can we just get one? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, the GFS is awful....

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thought with the trof going negative it and confluence moving east it would come further north.  I honestly think this is a Dendrite event.

Really? Hmm. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The cop is starting to percolate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon ensembles are southeast of op

 

 

 

 

Real N lean....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Please!?!? Can we just get one? 

Only like 100hrs to go….no problem.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS will be somewhat north of the OP is my guess.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Please!?!? Can we just get one? 

Sit tight Spanky….we’re in a decent spot at this lead.  Patience. It’s gonna vassalate back and forth over the next couple days…and then correct…hold the line.  

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One time wolfie, one time!

We wait and watch…we know where these correct some towards the end. I like our spots right now. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sit tight Spanky….we’re in a decent spot at this lead.  Patience. It’s gonna vassalate back and forth over the next couple days…and then correct…hold the line.  

Would you like some vaseline with that vassalate?

[FXWX]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the GFS right where it is.

I think the GFS has a reasonable trend both surface and aloft but I expect it's max qpf axis to adjust further north... Confluence trends are strongly arguing for a heck of fronto band setting up... I usually favor the fronto band to setup a bit further north than modeled at 5 days out.  

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS will be somewhat north of the OP is my guess.

Gefs going to be slightly south 

 

Looks good for president day storm

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS increases confluence yet again