Paleocene Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Delving into 2010 for a moment. I was in south central PA and don't remember mixing issues for either of the February storms. Did temps flirt with freezing for either one along the metros/95 urban corridors? Any mixed precip? I remember storm #2 was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t get the lag talk. The lag is when we have a beast of of TPV and need to wait for the SPV to impact it. The TPV is already in the process of collapse due to pacific forcing combined with Atlantic wave breaking. The SPV collapse will simply prevent a quick recovery and foster additional -nao cycles. This is also very similar to 2010 when repeated SPV hits acted in conjunction with troposphere forcing to create a long lasting and extensive blocking regime. I hear you! In the meantime, be patient. Go shopping for Superbowl snacks, clear the yard of sticks to light a fire and roast marshmallows. It's coming and we track by next weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A # of composites showing the same thing. Sometimes it would go -250, -250.. -100, 0, -50, -250, -300, -350. But the thing is, there were a lot that went +250, +150, 0, -150, -250, -350... so after like 100 examples, you had a clear time lag that had the highest correlation between 500mb and 10mb (and it was not D+0), the "+time" was about 3x stronger. There was also not less +time -NAO's if the D+0 nao was negative. You’re missing the point. Yes there may be a lag for it to couple and cause another deep blocking period. But that’s irrelevant when the nao is already tanking! We just need it not to quickly bounce back. Yes maybe the nao has another crazy dive in March because of the SPV collapse in Feb but what’s most important here is that a weaker SPV means the already -nao is unlikely to recover any time soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Delving into 2010 for a moment. I was in south central PA and don't remember mixing issues for either of the February storms. Did temps flirt with freezing for either one along the metros/95 urban corridors? Any mixed precip? I remember storm #2 was cold. We had freezing rain here for awhile with the second storm (happened that night around 8...I remember because I was ungratefully protesting and looking at my computer, lol...I could slap 19 year-old me for that!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re missing the point. Yes there may be a lag for it to couple and cause another deep blocking period. But that’s irrelevant when the nao is already tanking! We just need it not to quickly bounce back. Yes maybe the nao has another crazy dive in March because of the SPV collapse in Feb but what’s most important here is that a weaker SPV means the already -nao is unlikely to recover any time soon. I guess the point is that the -NAO may be more likely to sustain giving the 10mb warming expected to occur ~ Feb 15-16.. I'm just saying based on how it hasn't held for like 14 years it may be a little harder than it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Day 10 Euro tries to develop -EPO/+PNA/-NAO.. it's early, but I like that there are +heights over AK vs the GEFS at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 14 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i also rlly like feb 23-25 when that mega aleutian low ejects a fat trough Yeah that's the window the extended products have been hinting at. That timing makes sense given how the HL pattern is forecast to evolve. Hopefully we have a couple to track before that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 6 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Delving into 2010 for a moment. I was in south central PA and don't remember mixing issues for either of the February storms. Did temps flirt with freezing for either one along the metros/95 urban corridors? Any mixed precip? I remember storm #2 was cold. In SE PA it was cold, very cold. However there was sleet that cut accumulation down. Classic SWFE storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's the window the extended products have been hinting at. That timing makes sense given how the HL pattern is forecast to evolve. Hopefully we have a couple to track before that. If a storm does hit around Feb 22-23 it will be the longest lead tracking event ever. It’s been on the radar since it was like 4 weeks out on extended guidance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If a storm does hit around Feb 22-23 it will be the longest lead tracking event ever. It’s been on the radar since it was like 4 weeks out on extended guidance. Latest edition of the Weeklies- 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's the window the extended products have been hinting at. That timing makes sense given how the HL pattern is forecast to evolve. Hopefully we have a couple to track before that. MSLP anomaly plots show a signal feb 19-20 per 12z gefs. GOM low forming. Geps also shows this, but more muted 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest edition of the Weeklies- EPS control clips us a couple times then finally gives us a hecs but not until March 15. How many will make it? lol 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We had freezing rain here for awhile with the second storm (happened that night around 8...I remember because I was ungratefully protesting and looking at my computer, lol...I could slap 19 year-old me for that!) I was in a hotel in downtown D.C. Feb. 9-11, 2010, and jotted this note in my calendar at the time: "Stopped snowing and started sleeting 10 p.m. Tuesday. Woke up to blowing, heavy snow 7:30 a.m. Wednesday. It didn't really let up till 3:30. 13 or 14 inches, brutally cold and high winds." 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: MSLP anomaly plots show a signal feb 19-20 per 12z gefs. GOM low forming. Geps also shows this, but more muted Yeah I posted the panel for that on the previous page. The signal has been there on the GEFS for several runs, not so much on the EPS. Euro/EPS goes dry after the mid month window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro/EPS goes dry after the mid month window. Either it means the eps is right and we stay dry, or it just hasn’t picked up on the signal that gefs/geps already has. I’m thinking the latter is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow A trough in the east... you would think with the Atlantic blocking hooking up with -EPO at 384hr of GEFS you would have more severe cold.. I guess the Euro is the slightly warmer model right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Darn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I posted the panel for that on the previous page. The signal has been there on the GEFS for several runs, not so much on the EPS. Euro/EPS goes dry after the mid month window. Rats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 28 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Either it means the eps is right and we stay dry, or it just hasn’t picked up on the signal that gefs/geps already has. I’m thinking the latter is more likely. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A trough in the east... you would think with the Atlantic blocking hooking up with -EPO at 384hr of GEFS you would have more severe cold.. I guess the Euro is the slightly warmer model right now. Shoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Darn What are you doing? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I posted the panel for that on the previous page. The signal has been there on the GEFS for several runs, not so much on the EPS. Euro/EPS goes dry after the mid month window. 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Either it means the eps is right and we stay dry, or it just hasn’t picked up on the signal that gefs/geps already has. I’m thinking the latter is more likely. EPS weeklies are dry with the progression with that H5 look Brooklynn posted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS weeklies are dry with the progression with that H5 look Brooklynn posted?? The only way we stay dry is suppression, and suppression will only happen if the waves passing by are weak/sheared, or if we have a record breaking block over central/south Canada as is the case for feb 5-6. I don’t buy it with the eps look brooklyn posted 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: even if 1899 happened or 1888…winter is still a C-. One frickin week of winter so far. C+ if they both happen. Just chill and wait for March 10! You may be thrilled!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow no more mint H5 maps.....snow maps or bust 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS weeklies are dry with the progression with that H5 look Brooklynn posted?? I wouldn’t say that. Mean precip week 3 week 4 week 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 no ensemble member in the magic window should be giving us rain. Not one 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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