Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[mahk_webstah]

It the sadness for coastal sne or all of ne?  Primary to Cleveland isn’t a bad thing up here if it brings the precipitation shield further north before a transfer.  Sounds like this one won’t miss to the south.  Also could trend better from here(or worse) but with cold air coming in it probably trends better.

[Typhoon Tip]

Last couple cycles of the GFS have delayed the arrival of colder air compared to prior timing ... That's going to be crucial to ptype in this because the entire system structure is moving into a region that will be early April -like by the time it arrives.

As is, there is an eventual transition but it would probably be a too little too late. 

It seems for winter enthusiasts the sensitivity for what you want succeeding or not is the handling of that +PP loading from the N.  Unless we some how cool the column without it ... Otherwise, this may go down as a successful realization of a storm genesis but we're getting shirked - so to speak...

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yesterdays runs did not start as rain. everything shifted north 

They always started as rain /mix 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

It the sadness for coastal sne or all of ne?  Primary to Cleveland isn’t a bad thing up here if it brings the precipitation shield further north before a transfer.  Sounds like this one won’t miss to the south.  Also could trend better from here(or worse) but with cold air coming in it probably trends better.

Looks excellent for CNE and perhaps into interior SNE though more precarious further south. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

No thanks. Hopefully it cuts into NY state.

Thanks, pal.

 

 

I don't blame you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks excellent for CNE and perhaps into interior SNE though more precarious further south. 

This is kind of like a mini 3/5/2001 in terms of modeling evolution.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

‘Flips calendar to Feb…’

[MaineJayhawk]

Circles January 29 on calendar

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is kind of like a mini 3/5/2001 in terms of modeling evolution.

The favored areas are prob pretty similar. This can still keep trending warm too though. But it equally could trend back colder, so we’ll see. But I’d feel pretty good in CNE right now and cautiously optimistic over northern interior SNE. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The favored areas are prob pretty similar. This can still keep trending warm too though. But it equally could trend back colder, so we’ll see. But I’d feel pretty good in CNE right now and cautiously optimistic over northern interior SNE. 

I feel good for a decent snowfall where I am...I don't expect a jackpot or double digits again...plowable. Keep biding time adding numbers so that I am poised to finally hit normal snowfall when the big pattern sets up in Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I feel validated on is the La Nina vibe to the snowfall distribition this season...I expected that.

[DJln491]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks excellent for CNE and perhaps into interior SNE though more precarious further south. 

Same old story for us in SNE.  But would like to see the ski resorts cash in

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

No thanks. Hopefully it cuts into NY state.

Amen brother. Sick of this shit.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Amen brother. Sick of this shit.

Aren’t you going up north soon? Why would you want rain up there with a NY state cutter?

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Amen brother. Sick of this shit.

You melting weenies just need to come north. Just take a couple of days calling in sick to work book a hotel and a pretty place of north get your fix.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The favored areas are prob pretty similar. This can still keep trending warm too though. But it equally could trend back colder, so we’ll see. But I’d feel pretty good in CNE right now and cautiously optimistic over northern interior SNE. 

So this means south of ORH is a Rainer? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow, the EURO really sucked for Sunday-Monday...yikes.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

Seriously?  I would consider anything over 8” a big win to take the edge off the warmup.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So this means south of ORH is a Rainer? 

It might be. We don’t know yet. Further north is favored right now but it could still produce where you are. We wait and see on model trends over the next couple days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS seems to support the GFS OP.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, the EURO really sucked for Sunday-Monday...yikes.

00z OP was pretty zonked. Ensmebles were quite a bit south of the OP though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

00z OP was pretty zonked. Ensmebles were quite a bit south of the OP though. 

GEFS and GEPS seemed very averse to the Coastal plane.

[ineedsnow]

24 plus or it's meh

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would consider that OP GFS more qualitatively for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

24 plus or it's meh

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would consider that OP GFS more qualitatively for now.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

EPS:

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

‘Flips calendar to Feb…’

2024 or...

[Typhoon Tip]

We’ve been Charlie browned by the N/stream plenty enough in the past. … I could see this inching colder until 36 hrs before go time only to have it roar back N with bad handling of the amount of that influence all along 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Aren’t you going up north soon? Why would you want rain up there with a NY state cutter?

Yeah next Wednesday to Sunday. Could be a lot of snow if that Monday deal pans out up there.

 

still would like something here though