40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Previous runs of EPS and GEFS had the wave dying in phase 6, now they both bring it into phase 8....been a theme all winter in the models trying to push it into the COD. This was one of my main points in my last long range update...that said, if it were to stall, I would expect it to be in phase 6 per El Nino orientation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1742283208467611750?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg Yea, gotta agree with you here. Its the smart play and there is value in being right....that said, I would still aim to provide metoeorological rationale that extends beyond the background signal of the multidecadal warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up. I sure hope so. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up. I sure hope so. Definitely support this morning for mjo help around mid month. We pray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think we are going to get an extended stretch of decent winter. Just not sure when it begins but hoping for February 5 or sixth for a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up. I sure hope so. From your lips to Rays mitts. We have a-lot riding on a 30day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Definitely support this morning for mjo help around mid month. We pray it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns MJO being super active has def hurt this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That big ridge sort of turns into a Hudson Bay type block on guidance with good Scooter high signal. Yes it's not cold...but that isn't a torch signal except maybe overnight mins. Then it appears -EPO/+PNA sets up. I sure hope so. This is what I was unclear on....I was looking for a way to distinguish on wxbell, but couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns I don’t think it will crap out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: MJO being super active has def hurt this winter. Probably tied into the W PAC warmth.....I would guess that there is a correlaion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I don’t think it will crap out… Me neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don’t think it will crap out… i don't think it will either, I just think that if it does, it would be a good thing rather than a bad thing. it likely continues progressing into either the western Pacific or the Indian Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting. Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting. Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva. Wasn’t this the time we were supposed to be starting a torch? Least I thought that was the trend yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 40 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting. Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva. We Manitoba Maul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Meanwhile, that digger around the 2nd is interesting. Does seem to be some potential there with a feature diving from Manitoba to the Delmarva. Looks like the Euro has it too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro with the nrn stream of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro with the nrn stream of yore. Ran from your basement....south shore shlong again on the CCB of that little clipper-redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ran from your basement....south shore shlong again on the CCB of that little clipper-redeveloper. GFS has something too at that time. Boy that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS has something too at that time. Boy that would be nice. This is the type of pattern where being in a potent El Nino might actually help...we don't have that saturated geopotential medium with a trampoline to our south....so we can dig for oil on the east side of that central CONUS trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is the type of pattern where being in a potent El Nino might actually help...we don't have that saturated geopotential medium with a trampoline to our south....so we can dig for oil on the east side of that central CONUS trough. LOL trampoline. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s fine if the MJO craps out and the wave dies. then you just get typical Nino forcing and a strong Aleutian low. the MJO isn’t the only thing that forces patterns The MJO doesn't force patterns. It offers a constructive interference factorization - which also by that convention goes the other way. But the planetary wave signal is vastly dominant. I've seen respective MJO wave ...even robust ones, not demo/fail correlation on the pattern over N/A often enough. MJO writers down in NCEP often refer to it as either in constructive or destructive interference with x-y-z aspects going on during the forecast periods in question. just sayn' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast. SO basically a -PNA on steroids. That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that. I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The MJO doesn't force patterns. It offers a constructive interference factorization - which also by that convention goes the other way. But the planetary wave signal is vastly dominant. I've seen respective MJO wave ...even robust ones, not demo/fail correlation on the pattern over N/A often enough. MJO writers down in NCEP often refer to it as either in constructive or destructive interference with x-y-z aspects going on during the forecast periods in question. just sayn' There's been times this season where I don't know WTF is driving the pattern lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting a warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast. SO basically a -PNA on steroids. That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that. I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A It does look like a trough to move in at that time. But on it's heels, will be a -EPO ridge building into AK. All the while the ridging east of the -PNA trough tries to morph into a Hudson Bay block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The CFS "toy" model has a very cold look with cyclic S/stream injects through early to mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It does look like a trough to move in at that time. But on it's heels, will be a -EPO ridge building into AK. All the while the ridging east of the -PNA trough tries to morph into a Hudson Bay block. I know - it's like every index is negative and positive at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting a warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast. SO basically a -PNA on steroids. That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that. I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A The EPS has been evolving into a psuedo Hudson Bay block....it's still a solidly AN pattern for us, but perhaps not the spring fever preview where we get 60s. We stay on the east side which keeps us colder and it never really gets far enough east to give us the return flow...perhaps cold enough for continued winter threats (ala the Euro and GFS on 2/1-2/2 which are already appearing today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPS has been evolving into a psuedo Hudson Bay block....it's still a solidly AN pattern for us, but perhaps not the spring fever preview where we get 60s. We stay on the east side which keeps us colder and it never really gets far enough east to give us the return flow...perhaps cold enough for continued winter threats (ala the Euro and GFS on 2/1-2/2 which are already appearing today) That sort of look evolved last month I recall... We were gawking at the blocking indicated - and equally as astonished when it sort of failed to produce. Although we did get the 10-14"er out of that period ...even tough it was pullin' teeth to get the models to admit it was happening until the RGEM schooled the Euro ( zoink) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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