North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 why is it that we were getting high precip bombs when the weather was warm and now that it's finally cold those high precip storms have stopped? Because Cthulhu is punishing our previous snow bacchanalia . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Being in a snow drought is more reason to enjoy a nice 2-3 of snow on top of old snow… its more like walking on old iced cement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Right now the heaviest snow looks to be in SNJ southward with the norlun. Time is running out for a north shift. Isn't it supposed to mix with rain down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: its more like walking on old iced cement Last winter we didn’t even get a day that felt like winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro........... January is a plus 5 month with no snow going into this. You are lucky you are getting this week in what will be an awful winter weather month. Here comes another 7 days above freezing for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snow sky Red Sky in the morning Sailors take warning.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: January is a plus 5 month with no snow going into this. You are lucky you are getting this week in what will be an awful winter weather month. Here comes another 7 days above freezing for next week and we will be analysing the longer ranger model hours wondering when and if we will see any more snow this winter..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: I dated a girl from Massapequa (now my wife) and the commute up and down 135 was very interesting during borderline events. I think those Syosset stats are pretty accurate but they are a product of my misspent youth. If you compare them to BNL there are some obvious differences, but I also find that to be true with Smithtown and BNL certain years. We're about 18 miles from OKX and Syosset is twice that. I've long tried to put my finger on a sweet spot, but it's difficult. Part of the difficulty is the data just isn't there to make an objective conclusion. Best guess is along the north shore between Huntington, or maybe even NE Nassau and Rocky Point. In most years, the bullseye is somewhere in that area, but in exceptions it can be anywhere; south shore, east end, even Queens. OKX/BNL is the snowiest spot with a long term reliable record on the island, but it's the only such record anywhere near the north shore and I suspect the elusive sweet spot averages 2 or 3 inches more snowfall than BNL. In fact that may be the case in much of the north shore region to the west of there. I took a stab at this almost 20 years ago, but life has interfered with that project: https://www.northshorewx.com/lisnowfallpatterns.html PS one of these years I'll redo the website and make it more phone friendly (and easier for me to update) I looked for a sweet spot based on your detailed snowfall maps of the region and I'd say for Nassau County it's near Muttowntown and for Suffolk County (and Long Island in general), it's somewhere between Miller Place and Mt Sinai. We have snowfall measuring stations there I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: The NAM is an obvious, clear outlier as always. Total trash model. Anyway, this is a 1-2 inch snow event for the area iMO. I don’t think the 3 inch amounts happen until you get into central NJ on south. On the bright side, at least it’s going to snow didn't the NAM do really well with the warm nose for the last storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’m just south of southern state. I’ll take that lol. Thanks Lee we look to be in the good zone, 3-4 inches is definitely a possibility here on the south shore from JFK to MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I looked for a sweet spot based on your detailed snowfall maps of the region and I'd say for Nassau County it's near Muttowntown and for Suffolk County (and Long Island in general), it's somewhere between Miller Place and Mt Sinai. We have snowfall measuring stations there I believe? It’s funny you should say this because I’ve lived in wading River since the 80s, we also had a house in Queens. And it was snowier in Queens by a lot. Granted, when you move inland, just a few miles toward Brookhaven national lab, you lose the effect of being on the immediate water. But living out there for most of my childhood, I would never say it’s as cold or as snowy, as where I am in Westchester now. As queens has warmed dramatically with the UHI and general warming, I would say it’s definitely colder out there than Queens and probably snowier now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Things remain on track for a general 1"-3" snowfall in the New York City area tomorrow. Philadelphia, Trenton, and Belmar will likely see 2"-4" with that area possibly seeing some locally higher amounts of 6" as it is favored for the development of an inverted trough. There remains some uncertainty concerning the exact placement of the inverted trough. Once one gets north and west of White Plains, snowfall amounts will fall off. The northern Hudson Valley could see a coating to 1" of snow (with more downside risk than upside risk). Following this storm, New York City will have more snowfall this winter than it had for all of last winter. WPC's Winter Storm Severity Index: EPS and NBE Numbers: Historic Data: With the PNA's being negative, the probability of this week's storms being moderate or significant in New York City was low. During January, a PNA+ is associated with moderate or large snowstorms. The percentage of storms by snowfall amount with a PNA+ (January 1-31, 1950-2023): 4" or more: 66% 6" or more: 77% 10" or more: 89% 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: didn't the NAM do really well with the warm nose for the last storm ? That’s about all it did good on, midlevel warm noses almost always get more aggressive at “game time” like that one was. The ensembles actually did a better job with actual snowfall totals, they had my area at 2.5 inches for 2 days and that was correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: didn't the NAM do really well with the warm nose for the last storm ? Yeah but it sucks with qpf. Need to slash it by 1/3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Big winner will somehow be Freehold, NJ. Seems like they always end up squeezing out a little more than anybody else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: It’s funny you should say this because I’ve lived in wading River since the 80s, we also had a house in Queens. And it was snowier in Queens by a lot. Granted, when you move inland, just a few miles toward Brookhaven national lab, you lose the effect of being on the immediate water. But living out there for most of my childhood, I would never say it’s as cold or as snowy, as where I am in Westchester now. As queens has warmed dramatically with the UHI and general warming, I would say it’s definitely colder out there than Queens and probably snowier now. I've always looked for north+some elevation for the ideal combo. The reason why I selected Mt Sinai is because it has some elevation compared to say, Port Jefferson or anywhere else right on the sound. Where in Queens did you used to live-- was it near Whitestone? I imagine it was very snowy there too back in the day before UHI. Muttontown for Nassau County is an interesting story. They routinely get colder than anywhere on the island outside of Westhampton (KFOK), I've also noticed they hang onto snowcover long after the rest of Nassau County is down to pavement and blacktop lol. Westchester is another interesting story, back when I was trying to keep much closer track of rain/snow lines for the north shore, the three official reporting stations I'd use were LaGuardia Airport, White Plains and Bridgeport (and sometimes New Haven although they don't measure snow there anymore, but they do report weather conditions.) One thing I noticed is that the north shore's rain snow line was usually somewhere between LaGuardia and White Plains, but sometimes the north shore did stay snow longer than Bridgeport did although never quite as long as New Haven did. It's just another way to estimate annual snowfall without official data-- trying to figure out who changes over to rain or freezing mix least quickly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Isn't it supposed to mix with rain down there? Only like cape may coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Big winner will somehow be Freehold, NJ. Seems like they always end up squeezing out a little more than anybody else. I remember in the post Sandy snowstorm on November 7th 2012 they somehow got 14" of snow in a storm that was supposed to change to rain lol. We can't complain here-- we got 8 inches. To date, that's my all time favorite early season snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Big winner will somehow be Freehold, NJ. Seems like they always end up squeezing out a little more than anybody else. HRRR is focusing the heaviest snow towards central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, MJO812 said: HRRR is focusing the heaviest snow towards central NJ It came north from 6z but jts long range so who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It came north from 6z but jts long range so who knows It's really close to the south shore of NYC. Still gives the City around 3 inches . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It stays below freezing til Monday so at least it'll stick around and look wintry for a few days but yeah we need an area wide 4 to 8 to save us later on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It stays below freezing til Monday so at least it'll stick around and look wintry for a few days but yeah we need an area wide 4 to 8 to save us later on Any snow that we get will melt away next week with the milder temps and rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Last winter we didn’t even get a day that felt like winter Christmas Day 2022 sure felt like winter with temps topping out in the teens and lows single digits BUT bare ground so the feeling of winter was muted......... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Christmas Day 2022 sure felt like winter with temps topping out in the teens and lows single digits BUT bare ground so the feeling of winter was muted......... Two cold days and it was over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I've always looked for north+some elevation for the ideal combo. The reason why I selected Mt Sinai is because it has some elevation compared to say, Port Jefferson or anywhere else right on the sound. Where in Queens did you used to live-- was it near Whitestone? I imagine it was very snowy there too back in the day before UHI. Muttontown for Nassau County is an interesting story. They routinely get colder than anywhere on the island outside of Westhampton (KFOK), I've also noticed they hang onto snowcover long after the rest of Nassau County is down to pavement and blacktop lol. Westchester is another interesting story, back when I was trying to keep much closer track of rain/snow lines for the north shore, the three official reporting stations I'd use were LaGuardia Airport, White Plains and Bridgeport (and sometimes New Haven although they don't measure snow there anymore, but they do report weather conditions.) One thing I noticed is that the north shore's rain snow line was usually somewhere between LaGuardia and White Plains, but sometimes the north shore did stay snow longer than Bridgeport did although never quite as long as New Haven did. It's just another way to estimate annual snowfall without official data-- trying to figure out who changes over to rain or freezing mix least quickly lol. Whitestone. It used to very suburban. Totally changed in density over last 20 years as has most of queens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nam drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAM looks lousy/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam drier Shocking. So all the models are now around .15-.2" liquid. 2 to 3 with ratios more south. Nam was off its rocker yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: NAM looks lousy/south. It lines up with the gfs and euro and rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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